EASY COMMON SENSE TOOLS FOR HANDICAPPING

And AVERTING MISCONCEPTIONS

There is an old saying, "You can run a sprint or you can run a marathon, but you can't sprint a marathon."

When it comes to horse racing, you can't run like a stayer and win a sprint either. So why does everyone resort to handicapping the same way for every race they gamble on?

It is an early Saturday Morning and you have your Past Performance sheets in hand. You are ready to tackle a Pick Six and this time, you think, you're going to hit it. You've come so close on so many occasions, but this time, you're going to R-E-A-L-L-Y get serious and focus even harder. And then...

You do exactly the same thing. You handicap exactly the same way as you've been doing for years. Every race you tackle, you resume your same exact routine with no change. Saturday evening comes and that Pick Six is in the trash.

No worries, you think. There is always next week and the cycle continues over and over again. How do you expect different results while implementing the same routine for every single race?

Your chosen handicapping method is not incorrect per say, it simply boils down to common sense. Once you understand this simple idea, your handicapping skills will skyrocket.

THERE IS NO "ONE SIZE FITS ALL" METHOD OF HANDICAPPING FOR EVERY RACE THAT YOU WORK ON. THIS IS THE BIGGEST MISTAKE OF THOSE WHO LOVE THIS GAME. CHANGING YOUR MINDSET FROM RACE TO RACE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT TO SUCCESSFUL HANDICAPPING.

You cannot handicap a 6f race in the same manner as you do for an 8f race, a 9f race, or a 10f.

You cannot handicap a turf race or an AWS race in the same manner as you do for a dirt race.

You cannot handicap a specific set of contenders on the field in the same manner every single time.

You cannot assume that high beyer figures and fractional times will always translate to a new track.

You cannot dismiss contenders based only on what you see on that Past Performance Sheet.

Every single race that you handicap must be attacked completely different than the one you just finished. Understand that each race has its own specific dimensions and within that field of competitors, you will need to find which horse(s) align within the confines of those elements.

Every race will demand a completely different mindset and the aspects which seemed to be important for one, may turn out to be the least important in the next. Below is a condensed outline and some tips that should be highlighted in order to enhance your handicapping skills as you work through the different race parameters.

A series of articles will be posted over the upcoming month which will emphasize each important component of handicapping as it relates to the parameters of a given race. This will include:

Maiden and Debut races.

The Allowance Race.

The Derby Prep race.

The Triple Crown.

Graded Stakes Races.

Breeders Cup Races.

Fast Dry Track vs. Sloppy Track.

The first of the Series:

MAIDEN and DEBUT RACES:

The only items available on that PP sheet that are relevant will alert you to their workout times and where the work out occurred. Their trainer, jockey, and other info is basically irrelevant to the the specific horse as it aligns to the task at hand coupled with his suitability. The most important aspects (but not limited to):

The Distance. Is it a 6f debut or an 8f debut?

In order to distinguish advantage between the two, you must consult Dr. Roman's Chef index. If you do not do this step, you might as well throw your money in the trash. First time starter will rely on his chart at a greater clip until he begins to come into his own in the future.

A very high chef index (3.00+) will have a huge advantage (depending on the track) in a 6f debut, however, a mid-range index (2.00-2.90) will snatch that advantage in a 7f - 8f DEBUT race.

The reason for the change in advantage from 6f to 8f in a debut is that while the speedy 3.00+ horse may in fact show extraordinary speed in his works, he would not be accustom yet to sustaining that energy for an additional one to two furlongs extra. Most likely, he has yet to even workout at that distance. He would then have a greater chance of giving in before the stretch, and the midrange horse takes over.

This does not mean that the "speed demon" is distance challenged going forward, it only means that as a first time starter, he will take his chart and his training to date into that gate with him to excel at 6f, but have no foundation yet at 7f or 8f.

The only way to know where he legitimately stands in his debut is through his chef index.

What track were his most recent workouts?

If the race is occurring at the same exact track (with the same weather conditions) simply align those workout times with that chef index. Do they coincide? Do they fall short for that index? Is the mid-range colt running bullets where he would stand-out with those speedsters? Workout times on the same track coupled with a chef index is the single most important handicapping element for a debut race. There is simply nothing else.

HIGH CHEF INDEX (3.00+ 4.00+ 5.00+)

Entered in a 6f debut at Santa Anita:

→ 4f Workouts at Santa Anita with 48.00 and under including bullets - a solid bet. It translates.

→ 4f Workouts at Santa Anita with 50.00 and over - no good. Breeding does not translate.

LOW CHEF INDEX (1.00+ 2.00+)

Entered in a 6f debut at Santa Anita:

→ 4f Workouts at Santa Anita with 48.00 and under including bullets - MAJOR PLAYER

→ 4f Workouts at Santa Anita with 50.00 and over - no good for 6f on that bias and he's telling us that. Breeding does not translate. Should not be dismissed moving forward based on poor performance at Santa Anita though, which is what most would do in his next race.

That is the biggest misconception for a Debut performance. Understanding that since he is not built for a 6f race on a fast bias like Santa Anita, he would be offered at high odds in his next. Do not be surprised if this guy exploded in his next 8f Allowance race at a track like Aqueduct or Fairgrounds.

If the race is occurring on a different race track than his most recent workouts, other elements come into play. For example, the colt will NOT run the same way on Santa Anita's track as he would at Aqueduct. (and visa versa). Much information can be garnered when consulting the Chef Index on the specific track he has worked at and then projecting that information to his upcoming race:

HIGH CHEF INDEX (3.00+ 4.00+ 5.00+)

Entered in a 6f debut at Santa Anita:

→ 4f Workouts at Aqueduct with 48.00 and under including bullets - MAJOR PLAYER.

→ 4f Workout at Aqueduct with 50.00 and over - his breeding does not translate to that track and most likely will run much faster and much better with potential to explode on the Santa Anita track - Cannot dismiss.

LOW CHEF INDEX (1.00+ 2.00+)

Entered in a 6f debut at Santa Anita:

→ 4f Workouts at Aqueduct with 48.00 and under including bullets - Could be potential Monster but most likely will not translate to Santa Anita. Should he happen to be competitive here, serious player moving forward.

→ 4f Workout at Aqueduct with 50.00 and over - his breeding and his will to compete at 6f anywhere is off the table. Most likely this guy would lug in at the rear of the pack. Most would not realize his potential moving forward as he is not built for short races no matter the bias.

Now, if you switch everything, and the debut is at Aqueduct and the same workout times occurred at Santa Anita, all bullet points get switched. Everything would be opposite.

For a Debut Race, the only information you have to consult is the Chef Index and the Workouts. That's it. It is not simply one or the other either, both go hand in hand. You must determine the bias of the track that he is debuting on. You must align his chef index with that track and you must consult his workout times to see if he aligns with both. You must exhaust both points to determine his suitability of the race parameters with no other information but his breeding and works.

The debut race is very obvious that it would need to be attacked differently than all others. But you will be surprised to find that the recurring difference with completely different aspects will follow along no matter the race, Each one will be different.

If you consult only one side of the equation, you will lose. Additionally, hype and word of mouth will never override whether or not a colt is built for a specific race.

As you will find within the series of these upcoming articles, the common sense theme of a how a horse is BUILT FOR THE RACE coupled with how to determine that when the parameters continue to change for each race will also affect each and every handicapping change. This, in turn, will influence your ability to be more successful in each race you gamble on.

Every race will have a different distance, a different track bias, different weather. There will be times when a seasoned successful colt may have never been subjected to a certain element yet. There will be times when a certain unsuccessful colt finally gets the right set-up. Therefore...

You cannot rely on your "One Size Fits All" regiment of handicapping. When you learn to understand that no two races will be won with the same exact factors that you consult every time, your handicapping skills will skyrocket. When you understand the highlighted points for each scenario, you will see that no two races can be handicapped exactly the same.

Each one will utilize different aspects of the PP Sheet, different aspects of the beyers, fractional times, workout times, etc. No two races are the same.

Upcoming Article: The Art of The Game: The Allowance Race and Early Derby Preps