1967

In sports news, out in the west of Kentucky, close to an inch of rain fell through the thunder and lightning at Churchill Downs. The year that paid $62.20 to holders of a longshot win ticket. It was the 93rd edition of the longest running sporting event held in the United States.

It was the year that Damascus did not win the Kentucky Derby.

Proud Clarion went off at 30-1 odds the day the rains came. His final time was 2:00.60, the sixth fastest ever of all time. Some call him a legend for beating the great Damascus. So many articles written about this race, all revolving around the third place upset for Damascus. Article after article about Proud Clarion coming into his own at just the right time. How the fast fractions of the early pace set Proud Clarion and Barbs Delight up for the great paying exacta over the astonishing defeat of Damascus.

Proud Clarion and Barbs Delight did not beat Damascus. The weather did.

The weather stole Damascus' Triple Crown trophy and the only thing that handed both Proud Clarion and Barbs Delight the notch above the Champion Damascus was the rain, the lightning and the thunder. There is one thing that repeats itself over and over again in the Kentucky Derby no matter what decade we are looking at. A certain horse will win the Kentucky Derby, no matter what his odds are and no matter how great and dominating his opponents are based on the breeding inheritance and the wet bias. Like a fine tuned orchestra, the configurations of the numbers will always outwit even the greatest handicappers. Proud Clarion didn't "hit his peak" on Derby Day in 1967, he found a gift from the clouds that rained all over Damascus' post parade.

Damascus was a monster. The son of Sword Dancer stood in 32 gates, won 21 of them and hit second or third in 10 of them. He had one race where he hit 4th, which was his last race traveling 2 miles. It was the lowest he ever saw on that tote board. Damascus was not bred for 2 miles and still managed to sustain for a 4th place hit. He won the Remsen, the Bay Shore and the Wood Memorial and came in second in the Gotham leading up to the Kentucky Derby. He won the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes, The Dwyer, The Travers, The Woodward, and on and on. He was a speed horse with ample mare stamina and could run on any track, in any state, and at any distance. On May 6th, 1967, he held an advantage on that track but three others also held that same advantage.

Proud Clarion had a race record of 25-6-4-2. The horse did not wake up on Derby Day "finally coming into his own." If he did, he would have continued on as a major contender in future events but he was a failure in all but one race at Aqueduct as a 3 year old. He fared no better at 4 and was then retired. Barbs Delight actually had a much more illustrious career over Proud Clarion and neither came close to the talent of Damascus. If the rain stayed away, Damascus would have been the ninth Triple Crown Winner and Secretariat the tenth.

Two types of breeding, as detailed in the numbers, wins and thrives in the Kentucky Derby in the rain. Overloaded chefs profiles and/or high chef speed indexes with superior mare stamina. It happens 95% of the time, over and over again. It is so important to keep this phenomenon in your back pocket every year that you gamble on the Derby. They have a clear and overwhelming advantage on that track and those numbers will beat the very best champion every single time. In a superfecta bet, these advantaged horses will always comprise the top spots and the easiest and best solution for major profit is to box the advantaged colts because the title of superstar champion will never outride breeding numbers. The only reason why Proud Clarion and Barbs Delight managed to be anywhere near that finish line in 1967 was because of their breeding in that rain. If it was a sunny day, the order of finish would have been flipped.

When it rains the day of the Kentucky Derby, any longshot with the proper balance in his breeding has the exact same probability of crossing that finish line first against the monster champion who also holds the same. They become even in that gate and the only way to ensure a winning superfecta ticket is to box the contenders who hold that superior advantage over the rest of the field. When 4 contenders among the entries in the gate hold the proper breeding, it becomes a flip of the coin as to which one is lucky enough to have that 2 or 3 second jump in front or who holds enough ending thunder after saving ground throughout the race. The longshots and the monsters become equal in their advantage and this is why the payouts on a sloppy track are always huge pots of gold. If you must resort to flipping a coin between 4 contenders based on their highly advantaged configurations, then their past performances, beyer and timeform figures, and the Morning Line odds become inconsequential. You must always put your "boxing" shoes on if you are going to enter that ring and gamble during a sloppy edition of the Derby.

In 1967, four horses (out of fourteen that year) entered the Derby gate with proper and highly advantaged configurations for a sloppy surface based on the history of winning configuration in the Kentucky Derby. These four horses crossed the finish line ahead of the rest of the pack and their order has no bearing on talent, past performances, or maturity. Breeding and the split second luck in being in a certain spot at a certain time makes gambling in the rain a profitable proposition.

1st - PROUD CLARION

DP = 11-8-26-4-3 (52) DI = 1.60 CD = 0.38

Mare Profile = 5-2-7-7-10 Speed = 7 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.56 Triads = 14-16-24

Stamina horse, top and bottom, who never ran to his full capacity in his numbers but when the Derby came up a wet sloppy mess, those 52 points in his chefs profile handed that win over to him on a silver platter. He saved ground, watching Barbs Delight clicking off extremely fast early fractions. Let loose nearing the final turn, Proud Clarion had all of his speed intact and ready to go. With a 1.60 stamina index and incredible 52 total chef points, this horse was primed for a win, even though he was a 30 to 1 longshot. No matter what category a colt falls into, if he is holding that much crazy inheritance from an overabundance of the greatest sires who were given the title of chef - that impact will beat anything on the field at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. There are some times when this configuration will only manage a board hit, but the blazing early pace gave Proud Clarion the greatest advantage over Damascus while holding a 1.60 stamina chef index and a .38 CD. With close to an inch of rain that afternoon, Proud Clarion skated on that track and down that stretch without a care in the world. His DP = 11-8-26-4-3 (52) and the fact that he was blessed with a 1.60 index on top and a mare speed/stamina balance that tilted to the far stamina extreme, he could not lose pitted against anything on that field that particular day on that muddy sloppy bias with crazy fast fractions early on. The mud pushed the quickness and his stamina profile thrived. 52 total points gave him an unbeatable advantage under those circumstances. Had the sun been turned on that day, Proud Clarion would have still been a player but it would have never produced the 6th fastest Derby time, nor would it have allowed him top spot - that would have gone to Damascus.

2nd - BARBS DELIGHT

DP = 11-1-3-1-0 (16) DI = 5.40 CD = 1.38

Mare Profile = 6-2-8-12-2 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.92 Triads = 16-22-22

Top Speed Category horses out on the lead who are carrying the proper amount of inherited mare stamina will always hit the board in the Derby. This horse had the perfect combinations and the perfect 10f balance to find an advantage on the field to hit the tote board, rain or shine. These are the set-ups that thrive in the Derby. Lead speed, high amount of inbred mare stamina and packed triads with a mare balance tilting way over to the stamina side will point to a player every single time, especially in the rain. With the added bonus of a muddy track, these types will always find extra lengths because they have greater ease in gliding across that surface. On a sunny day, these configurations will still hit the board, however, they will lose those extra lengths, which, in turn, points to a much greater probability that the talent, past performances and class of Damascus would have easily taken this guy down at the wire.

3rd - DAMASCUS

DP = 10-4-3-0-1 (18) DI = 6.20 CD = 1.22

Mare Profile = 8-2-5-11-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-18-21

Configurations and combined balance mimic Barbs Delight above, however, Damascus was packing a greater amount of inbred chef speed and a greater leaning towards more inbred mare stamina. Additionally, the will and determination that Damascus exhibited coupled with his class and past performances were far superior to both Barb's Delight and Proud Clarion. In a torrential downpour with over 1" of rain, the credentials of the favorite vs those of the longshots hold no bearing. When this occurs, the only true outcome will be based on just one word - LUCK. Damascus was one of the greatest thoroughbreds in history, winning both the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes and numerous Graded stakes races throughout his career, but he did not lose the Derby to Proud Clarion. He lost because of the weather and the roll of the dice in it.

4th - REASON TO HAIL

DP = 9-4-21-4-16 (54) DI = 0.77 CD = -0.26

Mare Profile = 2-1-9-4-8 Speed = 3 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.48 Triads = 12-14-21

With 54 combined total chefs points and that speed/stamina balance depicted in those mares numbers, you better believe that this horse was hitting a spot in that superfecta. He had every shot at the outright win with these configurations which drives home the point that when the track ends up sloppy and you see 4 competitors with the proper set-ups, you MUST box these 4 colts and hope that the longest shot out of the foursome finds that splash of extra luck near the wire.

Ruken, who won the 1967 Santa Anita Derby, was installed as the second favorite underneath Damascus in the Derby that year. A far superior colt to Proud Clarion, Barbs Delight and Reason to Hail leading up to the Derby. This colt had no chance of success on the day the rains came up against those four in the gate with their breeding (and Damascus' talent). It is imperative to consult the numbers before placing a bet in the rain (or in the sun for that matter) when it comes to the Derby. Ruken came in 8th place on that muddy track in 1967 and his numbers completely told of his fate.

8th - RUKEN

DP = 11-3-13-1-0 (28) DI = 2.73 CD = 0.86

Mare Profile = 2-4-7-7-6 Speed = 6 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.58 Triads = 13-18-20

Ruken had the class and the past performances, backed with superior mare stamina to hit the board as a major contender in the Derby. The second the clouds opened up and the thunderstorms invaded Churchill, this colt went from a clear advantage on a clean fast track with his standout qualities and stamina, to holding the most disadvantaged numbers on the field. At the very least, had his chefs profile been packed and loaded, he would have been advantaged with the others, but no such luck there. With a 2.73 chef index, the only way he would have come second behind Damascus would have been for that track to have been dry. Deficient in speed inheritance to compete, along with stamina both top and bottom, a Derby colt will usually suffer on a muddy track. Consulting the numbers will always point out when a real competitor has had his advantage pulled out from under him just before the post parade. Once in a great while, a midrange colt will find success on a sloppy track, but the probability is so rare, especially when there are 4 other colts in that gate who have configurations like Proud Clarion, Barbs Delight, Damascus and Reason to Hail. It's a no win situation.

Based on the configurations, boxing longshots with the clear beast and favorite will always offer you the greatest advantage as a gambler and the best opportunity to grab a serious payout.