OVER 3.10

FRANCE GO DE INA

DP = 3-15-6-0-0 (24) DI = 7.00   CD = 0.88

Mare Profile = 7-3-6-5-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.00   Triads = 16-14-17

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Deputy Minister → Bunty Lawless

With a 7.00 chef index and a one point spread between the mares speed/stamina balance, this guy would be wise to sprint himself back to Japan before June gets here. Not so sure what they are thinking here with this Belmont entry, unless the distance of this race was lost in translation.

PROMISE KEEPER

DP = 2-7-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 10-4-1-4-11   Speed = 14   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.93   Triads = 15-9-16

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy.

This guy should hop on the plane with France Go De Ina where the two could vacation together, dining on lush grass on the banks of Lake Ashi, with the beautiful views of Mount Fuji in the distance. They could discuss their great fortune in dodging the Belmont bullet. 

OVERTOOK

DP = 7-9-14-0-0 (30) DI = 3.29   CD = 0.77

Mare Profile = 8-2-0-6-13   Speed = 10   Stamina = 19   Index = 0.56   Triads = 10-8-19

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Deputy Minister → Bunty Lawless

Rare to see a colt with a chef index over 3.00 that has such a great amount of mare stamina entered into the Belmont and rare that one would ever be pointed out. He sits in the same exact spot as Vino Rosso from the 2018 edition. This type is hard to hit the win slot but he has the built in speed and more than ample mare stamina to go the distance. He will be coming late, he will be passing tiring horses and his stamina will get him in a position to the board. Excellent prospect to see his number flash on the tote beneath the winner.

2.00 to 3.00 – Most Advantaged

ESSENTIAL QUALITY

DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.66

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-2-12   Speed = 15   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.04   Triads = 17-7-16

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy. 

He has a 3.00 chef index. He has 32 chef points. He has Tapit. He has everything he needs to be a contender for the win. It would appear that his connections agree, opting to sit out the Preakness in favor of a 12f race. His fourth place finish in the Derby is commendable, as he truly was up against it with his exact breeding for a win in that race. The fact that he even grabbed a piece shows what a quality colt he truly is. Tapit colts in his position always find favor in the Belmont over the Derby. A must use throughout your entire super ticket. If there is rain come Belmont day, his advantage takes an even heightened step up.

HOT ROD CHARLIE

DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.60 

Mare Profile = 11-1-5-11-3   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.27   Triads = 17-17-19

Top linebreeds to Deputy Minister → Bunty Lawless

This guy is a hit or miss in this race. Most will look at the accomplishments of his sire as having the ability to tackle the 12f but there is a completely different set of characters throughout the generations contributing different qualities on the bottom of their charts. As expected, Oxbow pulled his weight for Charlie in the Derby and he reacted right on target. Catching that forward placement in 5th in the very onset of the Derby helped him just as much as it helped Medina Spirit but he will not see that advantage in this race. Realistically, Charlie’s resume is not the best on the field but he does like to hit the board. His spot was better realized in the Derby with the addition of Oxbow getting him to the 10f with that speed bias in his back pocket. For this race, confidence drops down a bit with the endurance factor coupled with his outward speed. A shot underneath is plausible but only because we just don’t know how far his sire is willing to realistically contribute. 

BOURBONIC

DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.88   Triads = 13-11-16

St. Simon: Top 5 leading sires 37.69%

That St. Simon percentage is hard to overlook. The highest of the group also touts a grandfather who won this race. These are not Derby numbers, so how he performed against the bias that day has no bearing at all in this race. His “style” of running is against what wins this race, as he will need to rely on a complete meltdown up front. There are a couple mid-pack and forward colts who most likely will not tire all the way to allow him to pass, but they should be winding down if any energy is overworked too hard early on. Highly capable of being among the top four in this 12f battle. Very capable of moving on a wet track as well. 

BROOKLYN STRONG

DP = 3-4-4-1-0 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-7-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.81   Triads = 16-18-19

St. Simon: Top 3 leading Sires 28.90%

He has the numbers. He has the balance. His connections are hot and ready for this race. One thing is for sure with this guy, if there is any rain he MUST be used. No question. If it rains, put him on that ticket. If it doesn’t rain and this guy gets a good break this time, he has what it takes to go the distance. Because of the dynamics concerning Rock Your World (Stalking up front or finding a bad break again) players will shift. The Derby must be a toss – he slammed the gate, found himself in 15th position and went nowhere on that bias. Looking to his previous in the Wood, he went nowhere on that harsh bias which is completely against his breeding. Actually, with his breeding and the bias of the Derby, if Brooklyn Strong had any kind of position, he would have flown home. He’s had a couple of hard spots since his layoff which makes him due for a breakout and he is holding extremely nice configurations to be a player in this race, rain or shine. He’s a contender.   

ROCK YOUR WORLD

DP = 3-4-8-1-0 (16) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.56 

Mare Profile = 2-3-4-7-8   Speed = 5   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.41   Triads = 9-14-19

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Fappiano → Teddy

This guy is built perfectly for this race and no matter what problems and bad luck this guy found himself in for the Derby, the fact remains that the configurations of his breeding were against the Derby race in the first place. The fact that he displayed his speed up front in the Santa Anita Derby gave some hope and had Rosario been properly ready with his foot in the saddle, Rock would have been up with that speed favoring bias and taken it all the way. The main question is not whether Rosario will be properly ready this time (all doubts alleviated with the absence of Baffert) but whether or not the displayed speed at Santa Anita was a real show of exceptional talent or was he the recipient of catching that over the top speed lead bias that reared its head in the Derby as well for Medina Spirit. The fact that he galloped out so far is really pointing to a bias factor at the helm. It takes speed to win a race no matter the distance so one needs to really consider the possibility that it was more the bias at work in that killer California performance. Rock is built perfectly for this race. The best (besides the Tapit colt) on the entire field but there is a slight reservation over that displayed speed vs bias speed that calls for caution. He must get up front and he must display his speed IN SPITE of any outward bias. It is more realistic to assume that the Belmont track will also be speed-favoring by the time the race goes off, in which case, Rock retains that advantage. A good break this time with Rosario’s feet in the stirrups and Rock Your World will be flying with the best of them. A must use in any bet.

MIDNIGHT BOURBON

DP = 4-2-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 9-3-3-5-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.20   Triads = 15-11-14

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Seattle Slew → Nasrullah → St. Simon 12.50%

This is a very fine colt and his 6th place performance in the Derby should be a toss for two reasons. One, his breeding was not conducive for the race in the first place and two, he ran between 11th and 14th position in the early stages on a highly speed favoring bias. He had not shot either way, however, he did go from 11th to 6th which is eye-catching. In the Preakness, he maintained second from start to finish which shows he is a very competitive horse. With his high 1.20 mare index coupled with his displayed speed in the Preakness, it seems that the 12f will not be sustainable. His class is excellent and he should be up front and could hold for a piece but Boubonic and Rombauer will be hot when he starts turning cold. A piece of the action on the tail end? Not a crazy proposition.

WEYBURN

DP = 5-8-10-1-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 8-4-1-7-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 13-12-15

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Bold Ruler → Bold Ruler → St. Simon 8.59%

I don’t get this whole thing here. This horse won the Gotham Stakes traveling one mile back in March at 47 to 1 odds and is now entered into the Belmont Stakes. What sense does that make? He tired on that rough track in the Wood Memorial traveling 9f which does not give much hope that he travel on a nice easy track an additional 3f. His class is against him here and his numbers aren’t helping him either.

KEEPMEINMIND

DP = 0-2-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.33

Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.18   Triads = 15-8-14

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Northern Dancer 8.59%

This guy should either hang out with Weyburn in the barn or he should tag along with France Go and Promise Keeper for that sight-seeing cruise to Mount Fiji.

UNDER 2.00

ROMBAUER

DP = 2-1-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 4-3-6-8-8   Speed = 7   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.57   Triads = 13-17-22

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy.

There is no doubt that Rombauer has the distance and there is also no doubt that he can roll with speed whenever he wants. He outdid Candy Man Rocket as a three year old which is really spectacular. He was always at the top of the lists along the way based on his configurations and his pedigree. His breeding is against a win in the Belmont and historically the reason is because these types “usually” are coming from too far behind to make up all that ground. They need serious reserves of speed after expending their stamina in the earlier stages of the races. His switch to mid-pack in the Preakness is absolutely essential if he expects to win this race or even hit the board for that matter. The great Drosselmeyer sat in this very spot and he was able to overcome the dreaded “stamina” category running mid-pack and taking over down that stretch. It is rare but it can be done. With a 3 week turn around, it is much easier for a stamina guy to recoup and get ready to roll again. He will be at a much better spot for grandeur if he runs in his Preakness style, if not, he will be pinned with Bourbonic in a late speed duel. Historically, he is board-hit material but his displayed speed gives him a slight upper-hand coming from this category. 

KNOWN AGENDA

DP = 2-1-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 4-3-6-8-8   Speed = 7   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.57   Triads = 13-17-22

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy.

Another with history against him for a win and another who was a consequence of a speed favoring front bias in the Derby which also should be a neglected race. Although, his style and his past performances left much be desired prior and do no justice for this race either. He does have the distance, he does have a great 9 point spread in his mare’s balance and he does have Irad. If you can bypass his resume, which does not do much for his class, at the very least, he will travel 12f, he will pass tiring horses and he will improve his position from start to finish. How far he gets passed the entire pack is another matter altogether. He is seriously up against a win here though. If it rains, consideration should be bypassed.

REBEL’S ROMANCE

DP = 2-8-3-8-1 (22) DI = 1.10   CD = 0.09

Mare Profile = 6-3-2-8-9   Speed = 9   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.61   Triads = 11-13-19

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy.

Bottom of the list with the highest inbred chef stamina on the field, however, he does NOT hold the highest amount of combined stamina on the field – that goes to Rock Your World. Rebel’s stands at 11.5f. Rock Your World stands at 12.9. With these two, it is a matter of DISPLAYED PREVIOUS SPEED which will affect the final stretch run. Historically, Rebel’s Romance has a hard shot at the win in this race - that advantage does goes elsewhere. However, UAE Derby winners do have a much easier time making a name for themselves in this race over the Derby and his connections did well to wait. He is a good addition in a few spots on the super if you feel you can spend a few more dollars, but important not to rely on him by himself in one spot. He must be attached with others.

OUTLOOK:

Rock Your World is the best built contender for this race with Essential Quality not far behind. Rock Your World is NOT an easy lock for a win based on the idea that he caught the flyer in the Santa Anita Derby and there is a slight chance that his “displayed” speed was falsely enhanced. The second reason he is not an easy lock is because he absolutely needs to be somewhere up front and there is never a guarantee that he will get it. With that in mind, Rock Your World becomes the one who must be used in all 4 spots and NOT relied on in any one spot. 

Essential Quality has everything in his back pocket to be a major player for the 12f and his advantage in this race is extremely heightened over the Derby. 

Brooklyn Strong is ready for a breakout. Bad bias in the Derby and bad bias in the Wood both against him after his layoff. He is ready rain or shine. No bad break or slamming into the gate and he runs with them.

Rombauer and Bourbonic both have ample stamina to charge at the end and pass tiring horses.

Rebel’s Romance and Overtook deserve a nod somewhere to fill out extra spots on the superfecta. 

Hot Rod Charlie is the 50-50 horse. No way to tell based on his configurations what Oxbow wants to continue to contribute.