UPDATED.

8.5f on Keeneland Dirt

Contrary to popular thought, this race is won from off the pace more often than not. Yes, Baffert's lead speedster, Corniche, ran huge gate to wire last year. Home turf on the speedy bias at Del Mar, plus, Corniche was a 2.33 index colt which gave him the extra necessary stamina to plow home. Storm the Court, back in 2019, front-runner at Santa Anita.

Good Magic, Classic Empire, Shanghai Bobby, Uncle Mo, all packing bottom stamina and sat off the leads.

Essential Quality, Game Winner, Nyquist, Texas Red, New Year's Day, etc, all mid-pack and rear with board-hitters to match. All holding major stamina to withstand all of the maiden winning speedsters who clamor for the front. More often than not, with the exception of Hansen, they don't find it easy to run gate to wire here. Did I mention that Hansen is a son of Tapit? That stamina comes in handy for this race as shown by all of them.

We are at Keeneland, not DelMar and not Santa Anita.

I don't trust Bob Baffert. I never did and I never will. He enters his fancy speedsters and most times, they mostly all fall straight to the bottom. He took it last year with Corniche gate to wire, but again, at DelMar. Game Winner came from the rear with impeccable stamina. New Year's Day from the Rear as well. Lead speedsters, not so much.

Now we have Cave Rock on the lead. In this race, lead speed MUST have crazy inbred stamina in his genes for this particular race. One of the big tell-tale signs for success in this race are killer stamina and/or Derby-Worthy configurations. Especially at Keeneland.

CAVE ROCK

DP = 2-14-5-1-0 (22) DI = 5.29 CD = 0.77

Mare Profile = 6-3-3-9-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.75 Triads = 12-15-18

First and foremost, these are NOT Derby-Worthy configurations. Second, he tears it up on the speedy bias in California but the race in Kentucky. He has plenty of mare stamina with a 6 point spread which gives him his saving grace here. The configurations are freaky and weird and the barn that he comes from is just as whacked. I don't like the profile or the triads at all, but this is Baffert doing all he can to gain back his praise, that which he lives for. Cave Rock will most likely win this race gate to wire but this gambler is taking a different approach. I will spend the extra money and box my way through this race. Nothing in the world would please me more this year (other than Epicenter pulling off a miracle) than to witness any other trainer walking into that winner's circle in this race. ANY TRAINER!

NATIONAL TREASURE doesn't make the wish of Baffert going empty-handed any easier. As far as configurations, the chefs are right on point, however, these numbers are about as far away from Derby-worthy as you can get. At the 8.5f though, on the Keeneland surface, they should still be quite ample because of the chefs. I prefer this horse over Cave Rock for this particular race as he seems much better built for the race. If Breeders Weekend were held at Santa Anita or Del Mar, I'd feel differently.

DP = 4-4-7-1-0 (16) DI = 2.56 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 8-7-3-3-9 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.08 Triads = 18-13-15

CURLY JACK will hopefully take his time-tested configurations and his time-tested style on this surface and flip that superfecta away from Baffert.

DP = 4-3-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-10-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.72 Triads = 16-21-22

Those are the favored configurations for this race. Granted, the speed is nowhere near Cave Rock, but it is more about how the pace transpires with a bunch of speedsters clamoring for the front on a different bias. He will have his hands full trying to accomplish it, but at the very least, he has a viable shot in that superfecta. The son of Good Magic (Baffert's barn) who rolled from the rear flashing all of that crazy stamina at Churchill has a shot at doing the same. Good Magic was not the speediest of that crew that year, but he was holding the right stamina to overtake regressing speed.

BLAZING SEVENS is another with the right configurations and style.

DP = 3-6-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 5-6-6-6-9 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.73 Triads = 17-18-21

Beautiful numbers - Derby Worthy. Another son of Good Magic who came from the clouds to overtake all the speed on a sloppy track in the Champagne. That took alot with these configurations and may point to something a bit more magical than those early pace figures.

FORTE's numbers suck, for lack of a better word.

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 11-2-5-1-11 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.04 Triads = 18-8-17

But what I do like is the running style and the will that he showed against a very talented and promising colt with Loggins last out. I have reservations with a win here but he has tested successfully on the Keeneland track at the distance and that cannot be overlooked.

Baffert will go for the One-Two punch here and he will probably get it.

Superfecta:

1st - National Treasure, Cave Rock

2nd - National Treasure, Cave Rock

3rd - Curly Jack, Blazing Sevens, Forte

4th - Curly Jack, Blazing Sevens, Forte

Super Boxed:

National Treasure, Cave Rock, Curly Jack, Forte

or

National Treasure, Cave Rock, Blazing Sevens, Forte