The following analysis is STRICTLY for the Kentucky Derby and has no bearing on future Derby Preps, the Preakness or the Belmont Stakes. Analysis is based on the ability to run the 10f distance coupled with the ideal amount of inbred speed or displayed speed in order to compete.

Based on the history of the Kentucky Derby (and fortunately without Baffert’s carbon copy colts) the weather bias of the 1st Saturday in May will dictate changes in advantages which cannot not be determined at this time. The best gamble if you are going to place a futures bet is to have both sides covered on your ticket with the understanding that one side will gain or lose advantage based on the rain.

The top category, 3.10 and over, is the most advantaged spot for those colts who have over the top speed from their chefs coupled with high endurance passed down to them from their mares. The weather, rain or shine, will usually fare exactly the same with this group either way. In some cases, a colt will favor the stamina from their mares, in which case, will have a harder time on the sloppy surface.

In order to keep up with the upgrade in speed over the past years, the optimum distances are configured using a 50/50 percentage as opposed to 60/40.

3.10 and Over

There are 4 entries in this category and 3 of them all have very good configurations for the Derby and one of them cannot be read. It is a packed category for Pool 2.

Varatti

DP = 2-3-1-0-0 (6) DI = 11.00 CD = 1.17

Mare Profile = 5-8-5-9-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.96 Triads = 18-22-19

Speedy “Into Mischief” sons have a slight phenomenon similar to Tapit colts, just in the opposite direction. Generally, they usually have very little points total in their chef’s profile and their mares dominate. Even with that 11.00 chef index, Varatti has more inbred stamina in him than Audible did. On a sloppy Derby Day, Varatti would be a must use if he actually secures a gate and on a clean track, he would still be board-hit material. He has a better shot at the exacta on a wet surface. His mare’s profile with all of that inbred front running speed is excellent for the Kentucky Derby.

Jack Christopher

DP = 3-8-5-0-0 (16) DI = 5.40 CD = 0.88

Mare Profile = 6-3-5-9-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.77 Triads = 14-17-20

Regardless of lay-offs and surgeries, looking strictly at the numbers – these configurations are screaming yes for the Derby. Highly advantaged in the chef speed inheritance department coupled with more than enough mare stamina to sustain the distance. Among this group, he has one of the better speed set-ups, especially with that .88 CD.

Rattle N Roll

DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 7-2-2-10-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 11-14-20

Another with excellent numbers sitting in this highly advantaged category. This guy is holding the most mare stamina out of the entire category. His running style is in perfect alignment with it as well. The rain factor is 50-50 here though based on that high amount of stamina. With the absence of Baffert’s slow paced lead “speed” – an honest faster pace may actually be in the cards this year. If that is the case, Rattle N Roll would be sitting in a greater advantaged position with these numbers. A good one for the Futures bet but the triads may snag him depending on the exact amount of other speed guys eventually in a gate.

White Abarrio

DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-7-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-14-17

Face value, the numbers would be an easy toss, however, this guy is a second generation Tapit colt on top and a second generation Into Mischief colt on the bottom. This means that the numbers certainly cannot be read either top or bottom. This is the only colt on the entire list that cannot be read by numbers at all and they cannot be taken at face value.

EXACT 3.00

Dash Attack

DP = 2-4-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 8-3-7-8-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.90 Triads = 18-18-22

The numbers are sensational for the Derby, however, he is sitting directly at 10f exact and his last prep race was as slow as you can go. This colt should be left on the side-lines to see if he can overcome his balance and exhibit more speed. The fact that he is right on the 10f leaves no room for error.

Make It Big

DP = 2-2-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 4-6-4-8-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.69 Triads = 14-18-19

His numbers appear to be better suited for the Belmont and judging on his displayed speed so far, that may actually be the better spot for him. Seems so far that he is content with the stamina side but the Derby demands speed. As with Dash Attack, he has to display some extra speed to be considered for the Derby, so this may not be the pool for him.

Mo Donegal

DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 9-0-6-8-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.92 Triads = 15-14-20

These numbers are not as good as Make It Big just above, however he too has the Derby Distance. Based on what is going on up in that high speed category and down in the stamina category, a pass here for this pool would be wise. The triads say no for the Derby and yes for the Belmont.

Slow Down Andy

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 5-4-4-7-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.78 Triads = 13-15-17

He must capture his sire Nyquist’s speed to compete on the Derby field and that prerequisite holds no reliability at all. Even though he has the distance, these numbers are extremely weak for the Derby which makes a Futures bet with him a very bad gamble. The only way to bet this guy is to wait for the day of the Derby and see if he exhibited any type of speed in his later preps because so far he hasn’t.

Trafalgar

DP = 5-7-12-0-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 8-3-4-4-12 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.72 Triads = 15-11-20

Save your money. This guy has no chance in May even with the distance capability.

2.00 to 2.90

The only way to use any colt in this category is to judge their performances leading up to Derby day. Unfortunately, if you gamble on the Futures Pools you do not have that luxury. There are a few very easy tosses here as far as the configurations go, and there are a couple who would need to be judged against all performances straight through April. Best bet is no bet at all when it comes to this group for a futures bet and best to stick with the far ends of the spectrum. They need to be revisited at a later date.

Commandperformance

DP = 3-6-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.61

Mare Profile = 9-4-2-11-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.04 Triads = 15-17-18

These numbers are not good and they are not bad. They are stagnant and can only be judged against every performance leading up to the Derby. He must show off some stand-out qualities with this type of balance. Same with High Oak below.

High Oak

DP = 4-4-9-1-0 (18) DI = 2.27 CD = 0.61

Mare Profile = 10-3-4-5-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.93 Triads = 17-12-19

The mare’s entire line is not good historically. Leave this one out of your futures bets, he must be judged only on his performances to see if he can be considered a stand-out or not. His 17 points in the first slot of his triads holds a little more substance in speed potential than what Commandperformance numbers are showing. But you can’t bet him now in this pool. Seeing his outward speed is most important here and this is impossible in January with a colt bred like this.

Major General

DP = 1-4-4-1-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-4-5 Speed = 15 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.50 Triads = 19-15-13

Second generation Tapit boy with a chef index under 3.00 is not a good prospect for a futures bet on the Kentucky Derby. Wait til Derby week and see how his displayed speed worked out in the longer preps or, if we are lucky enough, on a sloppy surface. Even then, he has a severe disadvantage in the Derby.

Courvoisier

DP = 5-9-19-1-0 (34) DI = 2.24 CD = 0.53

Mare Profile = 10-5-4-4-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.32 Triads = 19-13-15

Tapit boy with a 2.24 chef index. He may turn out to be a great horse, however, these numbers consistently crash in the top two spots on Derby day and therefore would be a useless Futures bet. This guy needs to display some wicked speed to compete at Churchill and even if he does, history is certainly not on his side. The 34 points in his chef’s profile is very nice but the Tapit stamina will dominate even those high points. This affects the speed capability that is necessary for the Derby but very balanced for the Belmont. His best shot at 100 points would be a trip to the UAE Derby in March.

Emmanuel

DP = 5-3-14-0-0 (22) DI = 2.14 CD = 0.59

Mare Profile = 7-5-5-10-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-20-21

The best set of configurations in this average category. Out of the contenders in this category, this colt would be the one to place a Futures Bet on. His set-up is very nice and he has the inbred capability to display the front end speed in the mares profile coupled with more than enough stamina to sustain. These numbers are excellent for a mid-range boy.

Zandon

DP = 2-3-9-0-0 (14) DI = 2.11 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 13-0-1-5-9 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.13 Triads = 14-6-15

Absolutely no chance at all in the Kentucky Derby.

Under 2.00

This category needs to be highly considered for any Derby Futures Bets. Some of these guys are loaded and with the strong possibility of the absence of the Baffert clan, we may get back to historically correct race results. There are a ton of stamina guys in this pool this year. Each one has the 10f distance capability and each one has displayed enough speed to make this list. This will be the hardest category to deal with this year. It is loaded with talent and a few of these guys have the breeding to become serious champions. There are a couple who fall short among their stamina peers as well.

Smile Happy

DP = 2-6-5-2-1 (16) DI = 1.91 CD = 0.38

Mare Profile = 7-4-1-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 12-13-14

He gets 10.25f, a full furlong longer than his sire Runhappy. His mare’s numbers lack substantially among his peers in this group. He has the potential to be a player but January is not the time to gamble on it. This guy needs to be judged on displayed speed only because of his sub-par triads, which will only come to fruition at the end of April. Now is not the time.

Tiz the Bomb

DP = 3-5-10-2-0 (20) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.45

Mare Profile = 10-5-2-6-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.35 Triads = 17-13-14

Absolutely no way against the others in this category and simply no chance against the speed category. These numbers are terrible for the Kentucky Derby.

Classic Causeway

DP = 3-2-23-0-0 (28) DI = 1.43 CD = 0.29

Mare Profile = 4-6-5-10-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.76 Triads = 15-21-20

These numbers are very nice both top and bottom and he should perform better as the distances go further. Not a bad addition to your futures bet even though out of the bigger hotshots in this group, he falls a bit under. He has a set-up like Tax from 2019 who unfortunately could not perform on the sloppy track in the Derby that year.

Giant Game

DP = 3-1-22-0-0 (26) DI = 1.36 CD = 0.27

Mare Profile = 6-6-2-7-9 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.74 Triads = 14-15-18

Another with the correct distance capability but lacks in the inbred and displayed speed this early. His mare’s numbers are not good enough to place a bet on him in January.

Pappacap

DP = 1-0-7-0-0 (8) DI = 1.29 CD = 0.25

Mare Profile = 7-3-4-5-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.84 Triads = 14-12-17

This Gun Runner colt is very talented and he may shine all the way up to Derby day but the simple fact is that his mare’s numbers are not aligned with the Kentucky Derby. As with several others on this list, the only way to bet this horse is the day of the Derby with strong judgement placed on his ability to outrun the speed depicted in those mare’s numbers. Historically, they are wrong.

The three NOT THIS TIME colts – all exactly the same analysis:

Chasing Time

DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20

Mare Profile = 3-11-5-10-3 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 19-26-18

AND

Simplification

DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20

Mare Profile = 2-11-4-11-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 17-26-18

AND

Epicenter

DP = 0-0-9-1-2 (12) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.42

Mare Profile = 1-10-5-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.74 Triads = 16-23-18

The numbers of these three colts are spectacular. Historically, each one has something a bit different that makes them stand-out for the May race. Chasing Time has the chef stamina with a 1.05 mare speedy index, which gives him more inbred speed than the other two. Speed is a necessary component of winning the Kentucky derby, especially when they are sitting in this category. Simplification has a bit more balance in his configurations which may make him sustain his speed continually throughout each call of the 10f distance. Epicenter is holding the most inbred stamina of the entire crew which has been quite the perfect spot to be in over the last several years. All three have the configurations to be major players in the Derby and the fact that each one of them wants the lead and can sustain that lead as fast as they want to compete against each other, will make this Derby one hell of a show. All three of these NOT THIS TIME COLTS will excel their previous each time the distances go further. If you place a futures bet, all 3 deserve a spot.