Saturday, October 7, 2023

Keeneland 1-1/16th

Notable Winners: Forte, Essential Quality, Maxfield, Knicks Go, Classic Empire, Dullahan, Swale

Listed in order of preference, from lowest to highest.

Post 4 Baytown Chatterbox M/L - 50 to 1

DP = 4-2-12-0-0 (18) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.56 ANZ = 1.80

Mare Profile = 10-4-1-9-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.04 Triads = 15-14-17

Severe energy distribution problems at 5f to 8f. This won't change going even further.

Post 7 Just Steel M/L - 12 to 1

DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80 ANZ = 5.00

Mare Profile = 9-4-6-9-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.22 Triads = 19-19-19

Does not appear to be properly built for this particular race. He also has adverse energy distribution.

Post 8 Northern Flame M/L - 20 to 1

DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.80 ANZ = 2.11

Mare Profile = 10-2-4-2-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-8-16

Obviously not built to sprint early on for access to a lead. Extremely slow first two calls when he won last out as he controlled that snail's pace. When asked to move faster in his first two, he disintegrated. That style won't help him here.

Post 5 West Saratoga M/L - 20 to 1

DP = 2-3-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 8-3-2-9-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.84 Triads = 13-14-18

His early speed will play against him if he tries to replicate his last. He would need to rely on much slower fractions but given the high amount of forward running contenders here, doubtful that would occur. West Saratoga, Awesome Road and The Wine Steward are fairly evenly aligned as far as breeding and also with being the "middle of the road" type. This race looks to have too many vying for the front tier, which will affect West Saratoga adversely. It has each time going shorter, with the exception of his winning maiden at 8f. That race happened to be the slowest early calls that he has ever seen. If he gets that here, he could sustain to compete in the stretch but highly doubt that would occur on Saturday.

Post 3 Awesome Road M/L - 3 to 1

DP = 7-7-14-0-0 (28) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 11-3-1-3-14 Speed = 14 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.81 Triads = 15-7-18

West Saratoga, The Wine Steward and this guy all appear to be on even terms. Short races as compared to their breeding but successful none-the-less. Awesome Road will be part of the early pace, Wine Steward will not. West Saratoga is pace dependent. In his debut race, he was able to sustain extremely fast 1st and 2nd calls, but he did subside as he hit that stretch - even though he still prevailed. Because of the threat of Just Steel's early pace potential coupled with evidence that he notched down late at the 6f mark, a choice has to be made between the 3 for board hit potential. Depending on where Timberlake goes for his prep.

Post 6 Generous Tipper M/L - 15 to 1

DP = 4-2-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.71 ANZ = 1.75

Mare Profile = 6-5-2-13-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.76 Triads = 13-20-20

This guy is extremely intriguing and has sure captured my attention for several reasons. Dominant inbred stamina both top and bottom. Runs out front. Prefers dirt - as his first outing was on turf and not to his liking. Not particularly bred with a high amount of speed but still had a very nice evenly distributed pace in his last at 8f. His type of breeding does not suggest early fast fractions but he went forward and sustained that pace WAY BELOW HIS OPTIMUM and prevailed against speedy milers. On this track, at this particular distance and this particular race, he has exactly what he needs to continue when the other speedy competitors give way. At 15-1, even though the 8.5f is still not quite to his advantage, this horse is on the correct path. He may not have enough speed to win, but he sure has the goods to get to that stretch above others who will inevitably give way. He appears that he can sustain a faster pace but it also appears that he can unleash his speed late as well. That right there could be his ticket to at least a piece of the pie. Love the high odds on this longshot for his undeniable potential to stake a claim to a spot on that tote board. Odds demand it. Love his potential moving forward as the distances extend for the future as well. This distance is nowhere near his optimum but he has those "Two Phil's" qualities that may shine for the board with the added 1/16th.

Post 1 The Wine Steward M/L - 8 to 1

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 7-3-3-5-10 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.71 Triads = 13-11-18

This son of Vino Rosso has only had the opportunity to run 5f and 6f races and he competed extremely well. He has consistently shown his even pace throughout those shorter races and based on his hefty stamina leanings, what he has done so far is quite impressive with his breeding. Undefeated way under his optimum, ability to distribute energy very well, good style for this particular race and bred to go way passed this distance. In other words, he has won against the grain up until now and at 8.5f on the Keeneland track, he should easily be able to show himself proud in the stretch.

Post 9 Locked M/L - 7 to 5

DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.50

Mare Profile = 6-2-5-6-9 Speed = 8 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.66 Triads = 13-13-20

Deserving favorite here. Based on his dominant stamina leanings, he still managed to participate in the stretch in his "way-to-short" debut race at 6f. He exploded with more track when moved up to the 8f mark in his last, running against the gain while stalking up front. Late pace aligns with his strong breeding. He is absolutely the one to beat in this race but with his well deserved odds, a shot with a boxed bet could promise to at least give the bettor a bit of excitement around the final turn.

Because of the huge spread in potential odds between Locked and Timberlake (or Awesome Road) with Generous Tipper and The Wine Steward, there may be some opportunity to capitalize with boxed bets. A break-even scenario if the low odds hit top spots, but a nice shot for some profit if the other two can somehow break in.

Boxed Exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers in hopes that the better odds can rise to the occasion:

LOCKED - THE WINE STEWARD - TIMBERLAKE - GENEROUS TIPPER

UPDATE:

If Timberlake runs in the Champagne Stakes and not here -

LOCKED - THE WINE STEWARD - AWESOME ROAD - GENEROUS TIPPER