Breeders Cup Classic 10f DelMar

FOREVER YOUNG Real Steel - Forever Darling (Congrats)

Post 1 M/L: 6-1 (S 0) R. Sakai

DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 7-3-6-6-7   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 16-15-19

This is one serious race with several very serious colts. This is one of them but after diving into the PP's, I see him as second best and it may not be to who you think. Looking at his body of work and specifically his last race at Ohi at 10f and the Kentucky Derby, his RPR of 123 and 121 are extremely respectable against this group. There are no misgivings with the bias at DelMar and the horse has been very consistent throughout his career.

The reason that I see him as second best is based strictly on his style. When you have a full field of highly talented individuals, even if they have ridiculously higher odds than they should based on their stellar performances, you have to nitpick every detail. It may easily turn out that the lead tier burns each other up, but most of these guys are sitting on optimums that exceed 10.3f and higher. It would take outrageous fractions, those that resemble the last couple of Derbies to shake a couple of them off of their spots. It could happen of course, but we have no Baffert rabbits to contend with and every one of these jockeys want that trophy. They will not use their horses in a manner just to watch them retreat. Even Mixto has shown the ability to exhibit restraint.

I believe his win or second place revolves around the speed on the lead out of the gate as it pertains to the initial first call. Obviously Forever Young is a major player regardless.

HIGHLAND FALLS Curlin - Round Pond (Awesome Again)

Post 2 M/L: 20-1 (EP 5) L. Saez

DP = 6-8-12-0-0 (26) DI = 3.33   CD = 0.77 ANZ = 3.33

Mare Profile = 4-6-1-9-7   Speed = 10   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.63   Triads = 11-16-17

This lead tier runner has never been off the board in his entire career. From one mile to one and a quarter, competitive every step of the way. He only does his very best when he is up front, so his post helps a great deal in that regard. His configurations are proper and if he can break well with Troy to his outside, his CD's will see to it that he can track a nice even pace throughout. One thing though, Highland Falls has only posted back to back wins one time in 9 races. He did win his last. If he connects well with a lead tier spot, it would appear that he is running for a board hit against these higher class horses. He looks sensational. I'm game with this guy for a superfecta nod, especially at 20 to 1.

CITY OF TROY Justify - Together Forever (Galileo)

Post 3 M/L: 5-2 (NA 0) R. Moore

DP = 3-2-13-6-0 (24) DI = 0.92   CD = 0.08 ANZ = 1.08

Mare Profile = 5-8-3-10-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.72   Triads = 16-21-21

City of Troy has got to be the longest shot to ever enter a race as the favorite. As you all know, I have adored this horse since his maiden - well, I hope you are sitting down for this! After an incredible amount of time working on this horse (well over a year!) and posting numerous articles praising his abilities on both turf and dirt, it absolutely pains me to say that I simply cannot go "all in" with him as a lone single on top. It is not about the dirt surface. Troy can run on the dirt. However, adoration can never override true and pure handicapping.

I truly believe in his ability to conquer a dirt surface. I also believe that he is the best bred on the field, actually the best bred of the entire weekend.

Where I hesitate lies strictly with the DelMar bias as it aligns with his configurations. While City of Troy is built for multi-surfaces, he is still a horse just like all of the others. The bias affects each and every one of them based on their inheritance. Besides breeding for the distance, the BIAS MUST MATCH as well.

With the unmatched length of Troy's majestic stride, he may not find the proper footing on that slick bias to kick off from. That is the worry. Attempting this new surface in a foreign country - With a Galileo boy - On the slickest bias in the country - At M/L odds of 2.5 to 1. The bias is completely against him. Sometimes the brain needs to override the heart.

But why would this trainer opt to bypass a sure-fire victory in the Turf race with the Longines # 1 Turf horse in the world prior to retirement? Why such a hard task on dirt at DelMar of all places? He has to be beyond confident in the power of this horse. It takes absolute balls of steel to attempt this which says that he has seen way more than the public has been privy to. I highly doubt that Troy retains the favorite status in the USA, but he will remain my favorite - by far.

I truly hope that I am incorrect in my thoughts with this bias and that the very best athlete of this field ultimately does prevail. I will be screaming for this guy to WIN from the second he walks out into that post parade until he safely crosses that wire. I wish Aiden every success here with complete respect for him and his team. I adore this horse. I will still retain this beast as the star, however, I'll have to pair him with another, just in case.

MIXTO Good Magic - Musical Mystery (Concerto)

Post 4 M/L: 30-1 (EP 5) K. Frey

DP = 3-7-6-2-0 (18) DI = 2.60   CD = 0.61 ANZ = 2.60

Mare Profile = 7-5-2-10-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.95   Triads = 14-17-17

So where did that killer Pacific Classic performance come from? Seems a fluke at first glance. Unleashed at 22-1, this guy ran the fastest he has ever run in his career regardless of the distance. His two other 10f attempts produced nothing near it. If you look closely at the race results chart though, you will notice something very strange. The order of finish, top to bottom, did very little movement from the opening stages. This tells me that the top two in the lead tier caught a flyer - it was wildly out of character and way too precise in the order of finish. The lead 4 stayed up front, the rear 5 stayed in the back the entire time - with very minor movement in between. Where they managed to position themselves out of the gate is basically where they all remained. In this race, coming from the 4th gate, he'll need to go but there would be no reason to exert that much energy from him. If they do try to replicate the Pacific Classic, he retreats at the final turn. This is why I believe that the pace will not be outrageous.

But the kicker is City of Troy. Mixto will be right next to him and of course they will want to jump aggressively and secure that lead over the favorite. By just passed the 3/8ths pole, Frey will know were he stands. If Troy isn't breathing down his neck or even past him by that point, he can relax his horse which, in turn, benefits Fierceness. At that point, the closers will be passing him with a vengeance as well.

SENOR BUSCADOR Mineshaft - Rose's Desert (Desert God)

Post 5 M/L: 30-1 (S 0) J. Rosario

DP = 9-8-13-0-0 (30) DI = 3.62   CD = 0.87 ANZ = 3.62

Mare Profile = 7-6-2-6-10   Speed = 13   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.79   Triads = 15-14-18

He put in a very nice 6f workout in 1:12.00 and prior to that, he ran a bullet. His workouts are better than his last three races. Always seems to be the case for these talented horses who ship to Dubai. They rarely retain their former glory and usually taper off into retirement. He's a good horse but with all of the muscle in this race, hoping for a comeback in the Breeder's Cup Classic is pushing it.

DERMA SOTOGAKE Mind Your Biscuits - Amour Poesie (Neo Universe)

Post 6 M/L: 20-1 (P 1) C. Lemaire

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 1.67

Mare Profile = 8-2-5-9-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.88   Triads = 15-16-20

Derma Sotogake has the proper configurations for the Breeders Cup. He hit a RPR of 124 when he came in second to White Abarrio in last years Classic. Since then, he has had 3 races, producing declining RPR's - 117 down to 99 and finally with a 95 from his last where he was a very disappointing 5th. They are adding blinkers but that does not alleviate the worry with his will and determination. It would be nice to see him back to his old form and wish for success to his jockey, but I can't take the risk against so many other exceptional horses on this field. I hope he runs a great race, but I can't do it this year.

USHBA TESORO Orfevre - Millefeui Attach (King Kamehameha)

Post 7 M/L: 12-1 (S 0) Y. Kawada

DP = 3-0-5-2-2 (12) DI = 0.85   CD = 0.00 ANZ = 1.00

Mare Profile = 6-2-6-8-5   Speed = 8   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.83   Triads = 14-16-19

I left Ushba for the last one to write about as not to cloud my judgement. This guy is one quirky, strange, talented, handful of a horse as I have ever seen. He is 100% rock hard horse with 100% heart and determination. Filled with stamina, running completely in line with his configurations and performing to a very high level with each and every gate, except for last year's Breeder's Cup Classic.

He is a diva who wants to run when he has everything in its place. He does not (or should I say, he did not) want to run in the summer months. He prefers it cool, not muggy. He will perform his antics on workdays but he will fly through the clouds when he is happy with himself and everything is aligned. Consistent with 120+ RPR's throughout, took a 179 day sabbatical through the summer months and posted a very respectable 116 for his second place finish in the TV Hai. He is on course to jump from that, however, we never know how hot and humid he may feel back on the West Coast. He needs to feel his best or he wants no part.

I have a feeling that he will be quite ready to perform against Sierra Leone. Hard to choose between the two accomplished closers for a piece of the board based on these quirks, but there really isn't a reason to choose. I'll settle for both. May the best prevail for that board hit.

PYRENEES Into Mischief - Our Khrysty (New Foundland)

Post 8 M/L: 30-1 (P 4) B. Hernandez

DP = 1-1-0-0-0 (2) DI = Inf   CD = 1.50 ANZ = Inf

Mare Profile = 3-11-7-8-2   Speed = 14   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.26   Triads = 21-26-17

This guy has one singular chef that falls in his fourth generation - Carson City. A Brilliant and Intermediate chef that gets obliterated in his profile. Reliance on just his mares alone in the Breeders Cup Classic is way to much to bear. If he wins, he is a super horse, as rare as you can get. Wouldn't mind seeing it but I'd give it more than 30-1 odds.

FIERCENESS City of Light - Nonna Bella (Stay Thirsty)

Post 9 M/L: 3-1 (EP 6) J. Velazquez

DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 9.00

Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-20-19

As much as I have trepidation concerning the bias with Troy, that is how much I don't have any when it comes to Fierceness. He will absolutely LOVE this bias. I do believe that this is a pace race (and considering City of Troy out of the equation for the time being), I happen to think that this pace will not be as brutal as it may appear. (Different story though if Troy gets traction.)

First, we have Highland Falls who is not a speedster by any stretch. He is more stamina dominant and he will track any pace that is set before him. We have Arthur's Ride coming out of the 12th gate. If he runs too fast, he will subside and retreat like he did in his last. They will probably want him to run closer to his 10f OC race, obviously because he was able to sustain for the win instead of fading off the board. Then we have Mixto with the great post but again, I do not think they will attempt to go anywhere near that PC pace. There would not be a reason to do so.

With a nice normal fast pace, we have already seen the damage that Fierceness can do. He is a magnificent horse who will absolutely relish that DelMar Bias. Now, if City of Troy runs the way Aiden thinks he can and this boy gets the jump on the lead above those 4, it's all over. They will never ever catch him but that is a big if because of that bias. He needs to jump out of that gate and open his stride immediately while getting the traction he needs. If he does that, moderate or fast pace won't matter. His stride length is way past any on this field.

I believe that Fierceness will win the Classic if Troy gets knocked by the bias. If that scenario unfolds, Troy would be lucky to see a 4th place. Otherwise, Fierceness is running for second with the rest of them and City of Troy retires in style. That's the way I see it. City of Troy dominates this field if he catches that ground or Fierceness gets his normal fast pace and wins out front. Forever Young not too far behind. I also have faith that Next will have his say.

TAPIT TRICE Tapit - Danzatrice (Dunkirk)

Post 10 M/L: 30-1 (EP 5) I. Ortiz Jr.

DP = 5-15-11-1-0 (32) DI = 3.92   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.92

Mare Profile = 10-6-1-7-7   Speed = 16   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.23   Triads = 17-14-15 (1st gen Tapit)

Tapit Trice was always a very nice horse, quirky at times but he does show heart and his breeding is quite nice. He's always good for a board hit and if you felt inclined to throw him in, it wouldn't be a useless proposition. To be frank, every single horse under the big guys have a shot at the pie. None of them are distanced challenged and all of them have shown high quality at one point or the other. It is more personal taste and how deep you are willing to go. I would not consider him a win player though amongst this crowd.

SIERRA LEONE Gun Runner - Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon)

Post 11 M/L: 12-1 (S 0) F. Pratt

DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.50

Mare Profile = 5-3-5-6-8   Speed = 8   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.67   Triads = 13-14-19

The little horse that could. He refuses to miss that board and he never does. Unfortunately, he reserves so much early energy that he gives himself way too much to do late. Most every single time, he is entered against a lead tier that has at least one or two who are fully equipped to go the distance so he has to rely way too much on retreating horses that are usually never there. If things align - such as Mixto going berserk on the lead while taking Fierceness, Arthur, Highland and Next with him. Having Troy slipping and sliding near the rail. Ushba Tesoro content to sunbathe as opposed to competing and Forever Young forgetting he's a race horse - Then he may have a shot at the trophy. Good luck with that. But he is always a reliable choice for the rest of the board.

ARTHUR'S RIDE Tapit - Points of Grace (Point Given)

Post 12 M/L: 15-1 (E 8) J. Alvarado

DP = 6-9-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 2.56

Mare Profile = 7-7-3-8-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.89   Triads = 17-18-19 (1st gen Tapit)

Last out, Arthur's Ride came out from the far outside, grabbed the lead in normal fashion while exerting a bit too much energy. He was bumped, but it was so minimal that it is a non-issue. He was hounded by Highland Falls and pushed to reveal 47.67 & 1:11.31 - he caved. Meanwhile, Highland Falls ran in the two path all the way around the 10f track.

Now he comes out of the 12th gate. He can't risk getting shut out because that is his preferred running style. He will exert even more than he did in his last and he will not be running close on the rail unless he goes absolutely bonkers to get to it. Either way, this post hit this guy the hardest out of the bunch. Damned if he fires and damned if he doesn't.

NEWGATE Into Mischief - Majestic Presence (Majestic Warrior)

Post 13 M/L: 20-1 (EP 5) L. Dettori

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 5.67

Mare Profile = 4-6-7-7-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.88   Triads = 17-20-19

Never a fan of his. Need to consider his 10f win in the Santa Anita Handicap. Pathetic beyers while tailing his stable mate rolling at a snails pace. Pales against this lot. With no rabbit, a group of serious contenders, and coming out of gate 13, I'll pass. If this guy happens to win this race with his past performance sheet, I'll hand every accolade to his jockey, Lanfranco Dettori. He'll have his work cut out for him in this gate.

NEXT Not This Time - Bahia Beach (Awesome Again)

Post 14 M/L: 8-1 (EP 8) L. Machado

DP = 1-4-13-0-0 (18) DI = 1.77   CD = 0.33 ANZ = 2.38

Mare Profile = 6-8-3-10-2   Speed = 14   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.35   Triads = 17-21-15

This guy is the epitome of running to his chart. All that wicked stamina from his second generation with BOTH Giant's Causeway and Awesome Again mixed in with the killer speed inheritance from Not This Time's line. Plus the added bonus of a speedy mare index at 1.35 (over .90) to balance him even further. With all of that crazy stamina, he still wants that lead. Phenomenal in every way.

With this breeding and his "extra long" exceptional performances and his configurations, one would think that he would not take to a speedy bias like DelMar in the same fashion that may hold true for City of Troy. But there is a HUGE difference and ample evidence that he can be "trusted" on that bias. Winning the Greenwood Cup two years in a row at Parx (conducive bias) with his best performance in that race on the sloppy surface. His pace figures in that race a year ago were sensational. Gate to Wire with 115 107 95 105 crushing his opponents by 25 lengths.

Based on those two races alone, the bias for this "marathoner" is of no concern. But certain unknowns rest with this guy and Troy for different reasons. Next can easily be thought through based on performances. At 8 to 1 M/L, this guy deserves serious scrutiny.

We know the bias is favorable, now we need to know if he can redistribute his normal energy and find a rhythm that basically condenses those fractions, making them quicker early and not so spread out. In essence, he does not need to win this race by 10 to 20 lengths to take home the prize. He needs just a nose. All of that extra at the end, plus the extra distance of the race itself, is chopped. Can he condense that speed and win this trophy?

Highland Falls, Pyrenees and Arthur's Ride all showed off up front in 47 and change at the 10f distance. Fierceness a bit more moderate at 48. With Next coming out of this far post, that opening is not much of a concern, it is the second call where things get dicey. All four of these guys running the 10f distance posted in the 1:11 and change range. Next is off and would need to shave off at least 3 to 4 seconds in order compete. He has the energy, there is no doubt there, he has the inheritance from Not This Time but he doesn't have the foundation within his performances. He never needed it until now.

So we move on to his workouts, of course here is where we can scrutinize a "shorter distance" and verify if he can condense. Well, every one of his workouts were on the AWS. He posted his fastest recent works in 1:00.60 at 5f and :49.80 at 4f. AWS.

Taking into consideration that the horse never did well on turf and posted his best on the fast slick surfaces at Parx, the AWS works are understandably a second or two subpar. I would venture to say they would be up to speed on a faster surface like Parx or DelMar. That is the surface that he prefers.

The gate he was given could be a blessing in disguise. He will not need to compete with the 4 speed guys too early, reserving what he has for that second call. Obviously, he has the proven stamina to run on the far outside for as long as he wants while still WANTING to be close up. He will automatically reach into that reserve because that is how he runs. It will be there in spades. He can also take advantage of at least 4 who will start using their energy from that first step out of the gate with hopes that he keeps enough intact to unleash before Sierra Leone, Ushba and even Senor Buscador. He will have better position with more stamina than they have to continue. I believe in his ability to adjust.

Final picks will be posted in the Head to Head article.