Pool Three opens Friday, January 19th at Noon and closes Sunday at 6 pm.
The Following Analysis pertains only to the 10f Kentucky Derby and has no bearing on any Future Derby Preps.
Ratings at 1 star to 5 stars
60-1 Amante Bianco Miyata Rating: ++
DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 6-4-7-7-3 Speed = 10 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.15 Triads = 17-18-17
Heightened inbred speed from outside the chefs overpowers for the 10f. Not the best from overseas to tackle America. Suited well for Prep distances including UAE but would need to rely heavily on mares side to compete in May. Middle of the road configurations.
99-1 Ari's Magic Clement Rating: +++++
DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80 Mare Profile = 3-6-5-9-5 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.71 Triads = 14-20-19
Same exact feeling after Ari's 6f maiden race was felt after Shared Belief's 6f maiden. Both slammed those races completely against the grain of their inheritance and foretold major potential. Grab those odds now. Hopefully he stays on the correct path and as healthy as can be. This guy is very well-equipped to take it all the way.
80-1 Book'em Danno Ryan Rating: ++
DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67 Mare Profile = 6-9-3-5-9 Speed = 15 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.92 Triads = 18-17-17
Descendent of Kantharos is intriguing for the future but falls short for the Kentucky race.
60-1 Born Noble Pletcher Rating: ++++
DP = 1-6-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.67 Mare Profile = 9-6-3-5-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.35 Triads = 18-14-14
2nd gen Tapit who likes the lead tier. Strong 3.80 speedy index balances excess stamina. Not a bad proposition after only one maiden at Gulfstream. Bias running correct and style is promising. Most likely to gain additional 5th star after a prep win.
60-1 Carbone Asmussen Rating: +++
DP = 1-0-5-0-0 (6) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.33 Mare Profile = 11-3-3-11-4 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.27 Triads = 17-17-18
Very promising lead tier excessive speed coming from a 1.40 colt. Mare's profile completely dominate which leans all the way to the left on the scale pushing everything to optimum below 10f. Looks very promising for a future career but settles outside of the Derby. Nice colt.
80-1 Cardinale Pletcher Rating: +
DP = 7-13-9-1-0 (30) DI = 4.45 CD = 0.87 Mare Profile = 7-4-4-5-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-13-17 Mares profile is very under-par backed up underneath the 4.45 index.
40-1 Catching Freedom Cox Rating: +++
DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 0.90 Mare Profile = 5-5-7-6-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-18-18
2nd gen Tapit. Has 10f. Configured properly for Kentucky. Rear runner Constitution boy needs to notch a much better prep win and rating will rise. He probably will.
60-1 Change of Command McGaughey Rating: ++
DP = 2-4-1-1-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88 Mare Profile = 6-7-6-6-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.39 Triads = 19-19-15
Mares are not enough to counteract speed dominance. Best suited 8f to 9f.
40-1 Conquest Warrior McGaughey Rating: ++
DP = 3-9-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 0.68 Mare Profile = 10-4-2-6-10 Speed = 14 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.93 Triads = 16-12-18
Half brother to Fierceness but is not holding the same type of stamina through the bottom of the chart. Lacks in the proper set-up for Kentucky Derby through the mares.
99-1 Deterministic Clemente Rating: +
DP = 3-14-5-0-0 (22) DI = 7.80 CD = 0.91 Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-16-16
Would be trailing by the final turn. Looks killer for the Dirt Mile.
20-1 Dornoch Gargan Rating: +++++
DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 Mare Profile = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19
Wouldn't surprise me if he goes off as the favorite in May. Spectacular performances with these configurations. Has much more to show as the distances progress. Incredible performances so far with these numbers. High Quality.
40-1 Drum Roll Please Cox Rating: +++
DP = 6-4-12-0-0 (22) DI = 2.67 CD = 0.73 Mare Profile = 2-5-8-12-3 Speed = 7 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.65 Triads = 15-25-23
Has the distance with his eyes closed. Stamina dominant and lacks on the balance with the speed side. Full lead tier breakdown and he could capitalize. Needs to perform on a fast track for additional consideration.
SCRATCH - NO LONGER ON THE TRAIL
50-1 El Capi Dutrow Rating: +
DP = 4-9-7-0-0 (20) DI = 4.71 CD = 0.85 Mare Profile = 7-4-4-5-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.96 Triads = 15-13-16
Speedster/Miler who has ZERO shot at the roses. Excellent for Breeders Cup Sprint. Put your money there.
60-1 Ethan Energy Cox Rating: +++
DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 9-2-8-9-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.12 Triads = 19-19-21
Half decent chance with pace breakdown. Distance is just making it and can rally at 10f. Pace dependent.
8-1 Fierceness Pletcher Rating: +++++
DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 17-20-19
Excellent combined configurations that have been proven time and time again. He is running perfectly in sync with these configurations. Highly advantaged in May.
30-1 Forever Young Yahagi Rating: +++
DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 7-3-6-6-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-15-19
Japan Prep winner that is lacking at this stage of the game. Distance is tight. Needs much more refinement to even begin to compare to his Japanese predecessors. Still half-decent for UAE Derby.
30-1 Honor Marie Beckman Rating: +++++
DP = 9-11-15-1-0 (36) DI = 3.24 CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 4-3-6-4-9 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-13-19
Rear Runner with Gorgeous configurations. Built perfectly for 10f and has displayed speed even with the lop-sided triads. High total chef points adds another advantaged dimension. Hoping he does A.P Indy and Honor Code proud.
99-1 Imperial Gun Asmussen Rating: +++
DP = 2-3-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70 Mare Profile = 2-4-7-10-5 Speed = 6 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.56 Triads = 13-21-22
2nd generation Candy Ride. May need extra time to get his legs in sync with his inheritance. Numbers not half bad but the two races in the bucket so far are saying, "Hold off until the very last minute."
80-1 Just Steel Lukas Rating: ++
DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80 Mare Profile = 9-4-6-9-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.22 Triads = 19-19-19
Justify as a sire is definitely a plus. Both sets of configurations are set-up perfectly. Entered in eight races already and the performances are all over the place. Not running to the same caliber of many of Justify's other boys. Something is off kilter. He's just not running to his inheritance - yet. Hold off.
50-1 Knightsbridge Mott Rating: +
DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.60 Mare Profile = 7-3-4-5-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.91 Triads = 14-12-16
Impressive 7f maiden shows major promise for a very nice future. Chefs are aligned nicely with a low CD, but the mares falls so short for the 10f. The low single star is only for this one race, he has alot to offer elsewhere.
99-1 Lat Long McPeek Rating: +
DP = 4-12-4-0-0 (20) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 3-10-2-8-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.82 Triads = 15-20-16
Perfect example of what would not work in the Kentucky Derby.
80-1 Liberal Arts Medina Rating: ++++
DP = 2-12-2-0-0 (16) DI = 15.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 4-5-5-9-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.69 Triads = 14-19-20
Something very special about an Arrogate son holding all of that speed with those gorgeous triads. Hoping he actually starts running to them as he progresses into his 3 year old season. His numbers are 5 stars but his performances so far drop the rating to a 4. He drops or rises with his next race. He's not there yet.
15-1 Locked Pletcher Rating: +++
DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 6-2-5-6-9 Speed = 8 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.66 Triads = 13-13-20
For a Candy Ride descendent, very impressive 2 year old campaign. Configurations are not the greatest for the Derby but there is no doubt that he has the 10f blind-folded. Most likely will end the prep season with 4 stars because of the speed he is showing to date, but the configurations themselves can't go to 5.
99-1 Merit Joseph, Jr. Rating: ++
DP = 4-4-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.86 Mare Profile = 4-6-4-3-10 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.67 Triads = 14-13-17
Yet another descendent of Candy Ride. This time the mare's complete setup is woefully under par for the Derby.
30-1 Nash Cox Rating: ++
DP = 8-8-10-2-0 (28) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79 Mare Profile = 11-4-1-6-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.17 Triads = 16-11-15
Fancy and fast though he may be, he is not built for the 10f Kentucky Derby. Even the Preakness is pushing it.
99-1 Otello Clement Rating: +++++
DP = 5-4-12-0-1 (22) DI = 2.14 CD = 0.55 Mare Profile = 5-6-1-12-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.68 Triads = 12-19-19
100% 12f Belmont Stakes numbers but that does him no good this year. Obviously has 10f, lacks in inherited speed both from his chefs and his mares, but he has displayed very evenly paced and substantial speed in spite of it. Impressively ran exactly the same on two opposing 8f track biases (Aqueduct and Gulfstream) with very nice late figures way below his optimum. This Curlin son could be holding something special. Appears capable of running past his stamina dominant numbers.
99-1 Otto the Conquerer Asmussen Rating: +++
DP = 4-2-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 5-5-3-10-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.86 Triads = 13-18-17
Not the worst set-up but definitely not the best either. Middle of the road set-up. His displayed speed does not live up to his chefs numbers. Mares side is sub-par.
40-1 Parchment Party Mott Rating: +++
DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75 Mare Profile = 6-5-3-6-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.87 Triads = 14-14-16
Second generation Tapit. The proper high chef index to balance out that stamina. Configured very similarly to his half brother Catching Freedom, and both late runners. They favor their sire's side. Tapits are not necessarily equpped with the proper scale for Kentucky but they have the distance and have a shot at that board. Both brothers get 3 stars for now and can only get a proper handle on them once we get much more evidence of heightened speed in the proper prep.
80-1 Real Men Violin McPeek Rating: +
DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75 Mare Profile = 11-7-1-5-7 Speed = 18 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.50 Triads = 19-13-13
Mendelssohn's side is just fine but the mare he was mated with is dragging the whole thing down for the Derby. The entire mare's set-up is completely off. Should still have a nice career as he grows into his speed but away from the Derby.
99-1 Resilience Mott Rating: +++++
DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 2-12-4-13-2 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.95 Triads = 18-29-19
Wow! Mare profile is smoking! This horse needs that 10f distance. Excellent potential and built very well for the May race. So far, the best set of triads and the perfect Mare profile of the new-comers. Sitting under that 3.50 chef index (ANZ at 4.00) these configurations spark the highest promise of the bunch. Hope he lives up to them. Sensational Potential.
30-1 Sierra Leone Brown Rating: +++
DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 5-3-5-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-14-19
Gun Runner Colt sitting in the same boat as his other half-brothers on this list. This guy is blooming earlier than norm and doing very well, but the stamina dominance on the late end tips his scale off balance. This makes him pace dependent. This is not bad or good for the Derby, it just makes him rely on the faults of others. He has the 10f in spades.
50-1 Snead Walsh Rating: +
DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63 Mare Profile = 6-3-3-4-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.72 Triads = 12-10-16
No. No. No... and No Again.
50-1 Stretch Ride Romans Rating: ++
DP = 2-1-9-0-0 (12) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.42 Mare Profile = 8-5-3-9-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.09 Triads = 16-17-17
Rare index under 2.00 on this list. Happy at first then saw the unimpressive mare side. Its not horrible, but it's simply flat. He's done very well in his first 3 races, but he would need to run through his inheritance to capitalize in May.
99-1 Stronghold D'Amato Rating: +
DP = 2-4-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67 Mare Profile = 10-4-2-8-4 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.44 Triads = 16-14-14
He'd be hanging with Snead in the backstretch. Wickedly wrong for the Derby.
50-1 The Wine Steward Maker Rating: ++
DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63 Mare Profile = 7-3-3-5-10 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.71 Triads = 13-11-18
10f distance is there but the numbers can't help him in the Derby. Very average. Boring. It takes a serious amount of inherited balanced speed and stamina to win the Kentucky Derby. It's lacking here.
25-1 Timberlake Cox Rating: ++++
DP = 2-2-6-4-0 (14) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.14 Mare Profile = 7-8-4-7-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 19-19-19
Numbers are gorgeous. Love that 1.00 index with those packed mares triads. Sensational. Balanced perfectly from the mares across the board with a heaping of stamina thrown in. Should easily surpass what he has accomplished so far as the distances get closer to his optimum. 10f are easily in his tank. Next prep win and he gains his 5th star.
99-1 Time for Truth Moquett Rating: ++
DP = 3-4-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71 Mare Profile = 8-3-7-4-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.13 Triads = 18-14-17
Configured just like his sire, Omaha Beach, and he will most likely have a career that mimics his as well. The mare's line did nothing to change the preferred distances. 8f to 9f runner with potential elsewhere.
60-1 Track Phantom Asmussen Rating: ++++
DP = 1-2-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 7-6-6-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 19-19-19
Very nice balance with excess stamina, so the 10f is easily accomplished. Needs to post a win on a very fast track in order to get the 5th star. Still a good gamble at this point but would be better to see the speed power on a matching bias first. This is very important for this particular horse - we need to see how his chefs line reacts to it. He is so close.
99-1 Tuscan Sky Pletcher Rating: ++++
DP = 1-6-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.57 Mare Profile = 7-1-4-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.73 Triads = 12-11-18
Vino Rosso son who tore up his maiden race like a champ. Chefs line is great, low .57 CD. 6 point spread with the mares, again great. Distance is there easily. Triads, on the other hand, are very dismal. Hard to hold that against him based on the forward killer speed he displayed in his 6f muddy maiden. He ran so well against his set-up. There is something very special here. Appears he may be running straight through those bleak triads, but it is too early to tell with just one maiden. This guy must be monitored.
7/5 All Other Three Year Olds
Σχόλια