Continuation from Part One
Analysis pertains to Kentucky Derby Potential and has no bearing on Future Derby Preps.
Updated Weekly. One Star to Five Stars
2/16/2024 - Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes - Kempton
NOTABLE SPEECH Replay 8f Polytrack Final Time: 1:39.23
DP = 1-11-5-8-1 (26) DI = 1.26 CD = 0.12
Mare Profile = 7-3-6-7-9 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.74 Triads = 16-16-22
Dubawi (Ire) - Swift Rose (Ire) (Invinsible Spirit)
St. Simon: Seeking the Gold → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ++
Does not seem to be built to take on USA speed on Churchill Dirt. For comparison, Timberlake's 8f Champagne Stakes was run in a final time of 1:35.90. This guy at 1:39.23 on polytrack which is probably more suited to his inheritance. Incredible stamina but falls very short to translate against our colts in the same 1.00 stamina category on fast dirt.
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2/24/2024 - Rebel Stakes Oaklawn Park
TIMBERLAKE Results Chart 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:44.00
DP = 2-2-6-4-0 (14) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.14
Mare Profile = 7-8-4-7-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 19-19-19
Into Mischief - Pin Up (Ire) (Lookin at Lucky)
St. Simon: 45.7%
Rating for the Derby: +++++
For a colt coming from the stamina category, Timberlake exuded class and hefty speed sitting in 5th position against a full field of twelve. He did not need to rely on failing extreme speed this time. With Into Mischief's speed inheritance, his immediate mare with Irish blood, 45% line breeding to St. Simon, and the hefty balanced mare triads, he is set for success in the Derby. He has every detail covered in that category.
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3/1/2014 - Patton Stakes - Dundalk
BERGAMASCO Replay 8f Final Time: 1:39.83
DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75
Mare Profile = 6-0-2-5-9 Speed = 6 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.56 Triads = 8-7-16
Cappella Sansevero - Pacified Lady (Speightstown)
St. Simon: Gone West → Nasrullah
Rating for the Derby: +
Not in this lifetime. This guy has zero shot in the Kentucky Derby.
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3/2/2024 - John Battaglia Memorial - Turfway Park
ENCINO Race Results 8.5f AWS Cloudy Fast Final Time: 1:44.22
DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60
Mare Profile = 7-4-3-8-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.91 Triads = 14-15-17
Nyquist - Glittering Jewel (Uncle Mo)
St. Simon: 62.98%
Rating for the Derby: +++
A bit stumped on this guy. The fact that Encino obviously favors AWS, leaves an assumption that points directly to the 62.9% linebreeding to St. Simon and the 2.33 index. That is an easy tell for advantage on AWS. But trying to gauge extra influence from Nyquist in conjunction with these numbers still leaves things a bit hazy here for dirt. Face value, his numbers fall at exactly 10.1f. When adding in outside influences, his ANZ jumps to 3.47 and only drops him down to about 9.8f. He gains in speed, but the layout keeps his chefs fairly intact with the stamina. His sire, Nyquist, had a very high 7.00 Roman index which rose to a whopping 23.00 with a very high 1.00 CD. Nyquist had a 6 point spread leaning to stamina and triads at 15-15-20. Nyquist was also sporting 36.34% to St. Simon. That is massive stamina but his Chef speed counteracted it for dirt - hence, Derby Winner. Massive speed + Massive Stamina = Derby Monster. For his sire, much more dominance in the last slot of the triads, however, the massive chefs speed is not even close. Encino still has major stamina regardless of the poor triads from the mares. Excessive speed from the 3.67 ANZ figure and any extra influence from Nyquist leaves his numbers very foggy. This is one guy whose numbers AWS but then again, may or may not correlate at all to dirt and should be monitored very closely just in case. I am not confident in reading these configurations for dirt because while the set-up is geared directly to AWS, there is no telling how the 3.67 upgrade in additional speed and with anything extra from Nyquist would relate to dirt. I want to say that the 62.9% linebreeding to St. Simon is the dominate feature and would play against advantage on dirt, but there is zero evidence to assume that. Also, the triads look bad but the St. Simon factor could take that part over easily. Unfortunately, every workout has been on AWS as well. Zero proof. We must see a performance on dirt to understand which way (or ways) he gravitates. It could be both. For now, we'll stay neutral with 3 stars based on the exhibited speed from this prep. Hopefully, the evidence does not wait until Derby Day, that would be a disaster for us - blind handicapping.
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3/2/2024 - San Felipe Stakes - Santa Anita (1st - Imagination - N/A) (2nd - Wine Me Up - N/A)
3rd - Mc VAY Race Results 8.5f cloudy fast Final Time: 1:44.55 (for winner)
DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.70
Mare Profile = 10-4-1-7-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.25 Triads = 15-12-14 (2nd gen Tapit)
Constitution - Dothraki Sea (Union Rags) Trainer: Shirreffs Jockey: Fresu
St Simon: 12.89%
Rating for the Derby: ++
Second generation Tapit colt with a nice 4.00 index running on the Santa Anita bias appears to favor the stamina side as opposed to the speed side. He only has 10 points in that profile which could the problem. He did clip heels in this race, so he may have an excuse, however, he was also stagnant in the Robert B. Lewis. If he was handling his 4.00, he would be more apt to perform better on that bias. This is a horse who has yet to even break his maiden. Could be trying on the wrong tracks for his build. Both Mc Vay and Scatify could be better performers outside of California but that doesn't seem to be an opportunity to happen.
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3/2/2024 - Gotham Stakes - Aqueduct
DETERMINISTIC Race Results 8f Rainy Sloppy (Sealed) Final Time: 1:36.37
DP = 3-14-5-0-0 (22) DI = 7.80 CD = 0.91
Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-16-16
Liam's Map - Giulio's Jewel (Speightstown) Trainer: Clement Jockey: Rosario
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector→ Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ++
A 7.80 index which rises to an ANZ of 8.60 coupled with an evenly balanced (and under par) mare scale are the types of numbers that excel at 8f on a sloppy sealed track at Aqueduct. They do not excel at 10f in the Kentucky Derby. The chefs 5 digit profile says it all. Let's just hope he actually takes a Derby gate. Let's hope that there are a ton of gamblers who become enamored with his final time and beyers, which are par for the course for speedsters. For the DHC, he is one more to cross off without a second thought for the 10f Derby. We need more of those over the next 2 months! We'll just grab a hold of him after the Triple Crown. Love when that happens.
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3/2/2024 - Fountain of Youth - Gulfstream
DORNOCH Results Chart 8.5f cloudy Fast Final Time: 1:43.64
DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57
Mares = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19
Good Magic - Puca (Big Brown) Trainer: Danny Gargan Jockey: Saez
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: +++++
May seem like a 400k paid workout for this fella - with all of the scratches and with the horse barely being asked to run. But there was a lot to extract here, so bear with me. Since he has been the number one guy at the DHC from the very beginning, he deserves some space in this article. I first want to point out something very important. We all know that Dornoch is a full brother to last year's Derby winner, Mage. It is very important to understand that the ONLY things they both share are the scale, the balance and the ingredients. That is where it ends. The reason why this horse was such a stand-out from day one is because Mage ran directly in line with his configurations - DORNOCH DOES NOT. He has his own mind, his own muscles, his own power and his own determination. Just like you may have the same exact blood as your sister or brother, that does not make you even in your strength, your mind or your energy. Those attributes do not interlock. Mage won the Kentucky Derby because his ingredients (same as Dornoch) gave him the stamina to compete at a distance that exceeded 10f. The stamina part is dominant WITH BOTH. That part agreed with Mage's style of running. Dornoch is doing the opposite of what that inheritance entails. He runs on the lead - he determines the pace - he excels on a variety of biases - and he still has the same 10f+ running in his veins. All of these points are opposite of what his breeding says, which is why he was such a stand-out so early and why Mage was not.
The second item that speaks volumes, especially since he was barely asked to exert any energy in this race, has to do with two contenders that he did end up facing - Le Dom Bro and Frankie's Empire. What the public did with their odds has no bearing on what these two colts were holding in this race. Remember, this was only 8.5f on the Gulfstream track. Extremely short on a faster bias than what Dornoch's numbers actually crave. Le Dom Bro sitting with an ANZ figure of 5.00 with triads at 17-23-23. The other guy, son of Classic Empire, with an ANZ figure at 7.00, triads at 17-24-22. Those two colts were custom built for 8.5f at Gulfstream. Dornoch struts in with his 2.50 index, smothered in stamina, who should be running on AWS, takes the lead and wins with his eyes closed and ready to go around again. His two foes were all out at full throttle and he was not. This horse is on par with I'll Have Another in the way that he makes speedsters look like Allowance runners. There is no shame in beating those two at that distance with barely breaking a sweat. He did not need to exert much, so he didn't. It underscores just how good this horse really is. A good horse makes others look like allowance runners. The best is yet to come with this guy, in all 3 of the Triple Crown races.
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3/9/2024 Tampa Bay Derby - Tampa Bay Downs
DOMESTIC PRODUCT Results Chart 8.5f Cloudy Fast Final Time: 1:45.47
DP = 0-2-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 8-4-4-11-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 16-19-21
Practical Joke - Goods and Services (Paynter) Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Gaffalione
St. Simon: 6.64%
Rating for the Derby: +++
Domestic Products gets 3 stars because he has inherited 10f+ and because he showed late determination in this race. He receives nothing extra though. Even though these configurations align with Kentucky, they are boring and average. He sits at the bottom of the speed spectrum with only 4 points in his profile. He gets no assistance from any outside influential sires. His ANZ figure remains at 3.00. His mares are the dominant influence and tilt too far over to the stamina side which means he gets barely a spoonful of additional speed to counteract it. This set-up is why he had some muscle in this particular race on this track. The 4 horses who ended up at the wire were all within 2 lengths of each other and the 3 who came just under him had the right highly advantaged stamina side to compete. In hindsight, Domestic Product's set-up sat right on par with that which goes against the Kentucky Derby. This dynamic actually puts a better light on No More Time after all is said and done because he exhibited the necessary stamina to compete on this track but he at least is holding the other main ingredient for the Kentucky Derby - high inherited speed to counteract it. As boring as this race was, it does shift a few things going forward.
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Mar 23, 2024 Louisiana Derby - Fairgrounds
CATCHING FREEDOM Results Chart 9.5f cloudy fast Final Time: 1:56.16
DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 0.90
Mare Profile = 5-5-7-6-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-18-18 (Tapit)
Constitution - Catch My Drift (Pioneerof the Nile) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Flavien Prat
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: +++++
Catching Freedom was given a 5 star rating for Future Pool One back in October 2023 in anticipation of the prep races with longer distances. This is also the same for second place finisher, Honor Marie, and now both have secured a gate in Kentucky. Honor Marie was only 1 length off the nose of CF. Honor Marie was legitimately passed by a faster CF and not because he was retreating. That point is very important. That 5.67 index truly means a great deal with the presence of Tapit. The move from 9.5f to 10f for both colts will be even more agreeable because both are built on stamina with the ability to display raw speed, albeit late. Both have ample stamina inheritance to withstand a wide late trip should the lead tier falter in energy. The final time of this edition was less than 2 seconds off of Epicenter's track record which gives full evidence that neither horse has to sacrifice their speed because of dominant stamina. Extremely pleased with how the numbers are reading this year with all of the top players and they will hold true for the Derby this year. So far, everything is aligning perfectly as these distances expand.
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Mar 23, 2024 Jeff Ruby Steaks - Turfway
ENDLESSLY Results Chart 9f AWS cloudy fast Final Time: 1:50.15
DP = 5-4-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.72
Mare Profile = 7-7-4-7-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 18-18-18
Oscar Performance - Dream Fuhrever (Langfuhr)
St. Simon: 39.45%
Rating for the Derby: ++++
Extremely impressive dominance on the AWS and so far on his full PP sheet. Most likely, Pletcher decided to scratch Agate Road because of this guy but I truly believe that he held a better chance on this surface and the trainer may have shot himself in the foot. This left Endlessly with no elaborate competition on the AWS and he handled what was left of that group like a Champ. Between Langfuhr (high 8f speed) and evenly balanced chefs and mares inheritance, it would seem that the transition to 10f dirt leaves him just shy of the full distance. Fortunate for him, he has close to 40% linebreeding to St. Simon which hikes everything up on the stamina side. It is more than obvious that he favors this to a very high degree, which will come in handy should extreme speed take over again like it has over the last two editions. He can compete in the Derby easily but he will be highly dependent on others to give him his opportunity to utilize exactly what he is built upon. The late runners are growing in power on a weekly basis. Some have more speed than others though when it comes to the final turn.
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Mar 23, 2024 Fukuryu - Nakayama
T O PASSWORD Replay approx 9f Final Time: 1:54.1
DP = 2-0-6-2-0 (10) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.20
Mare Profile = 6-5-5-12-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-22-21
Copano Rickey - T O Rachel (King Kamehameha) Trainer: Takayanagi Jockey: Sameshima
St. Simon: 30.47%
Rating for the Derby: ++++
WOW! Gate to Wire win with killer configurations adds another layer of intrigue to the stamina category. At the moment, Timberlake, who sits in the # 2 spot in February's Derby Dozen list, just got a major peer sitting with him in that category. His trainer stated that the Kentucky Derby was the end game and is eyeing that prize. He certainly has the build and conducive style and he will be one to keep an eye on. It's either Derma Sotogake 2.0. or another Summer is Tomorrow loose on the lead running crazy fractions. He appears more like Derma.
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Mar 30, 2024 UAE Derby - Meydan
FOREVER YOUNG Replay 1900 meters Approx 1-3/16th dirt Final Time: 1:57.89
DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83
Mare Profile = 7-3-6-6-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-15-19
Real Steel - Forever Darling (Congrats) Trainer: Y. Yahagi Jockey: Sakai
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: +++++
An incredible performance with much more polish this time around. Ran most of the race very wide with killer late speed that endured much further than that wire. His configurations are closer to 4 stars for the Derby, but his performance today coupled with Deep Impact on top in his second generation may easily represent Japan as a true force to be reckoned with this year. He made his well-deserved jump after a bit of caution, he has the 10f, he exhibits speed, and he gave solid proof that he has grown into that chart now as we close out March. He's in the Kentucky Derby now with the backing of Deep Impact. This guy has just set Churchill ablaze. At this stage of the game, Forever Young is looking even more promising than the 2018 Champions Cup sensation Le Vent Se Leve - and I never thought I would ever say those words in my lifetime.
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Mar 30, 2024 Florida Derby - Gulfstream Park
FIERCENESS Results 9f clear fast dirt Final Time: 1:48.22
DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.83
Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 17-20-19
City of Light - Nonna Bella (Stay Thirsty) Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Velasquez
St. Simon: 35.15%
Rating for the Derby: +++++
Fierceness was the very first horse to receive a 5 star rating along the Derby Prep Road. His exact analysis from Nov 3 after his equally smashing win after the Juvenile remains exactly the same today as it did back then. A simple re-post of that analysis is all that is necessary. The only thing I'll add to it... If he breaks well, he's untouchable and he actually deserves 10 stars.
11/3/2023 Quintessential Derby Numbers and highly upgraded after performance on fast track at Santa Anita. These numbers work on sloppy track as well. Standout part is the 35% linebreeding to St. Simon which carries with it even more stamina. Triads are great, DI is fantastic and the additional prominent non-chefs produce an ANZ figure of 9.00. Major Speed and Major Stamina inheritance. Perfection. Evidence is all exposed as well.
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Mar 30, 2024 Arkansas Derby - Oaklawn Park Muth - 1st N/A
2nd place: JUST STEEL Results 9f Cloudy Fast Final Time for Muth: 1:49.54
DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80
Mare Profile = 9-4-6-9-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.22 Triads = 19-19-19
Justify - Irish Lights (Fastnet Rock) Trainer: D Wayne Lukas Jockey: Keith Asmussen
St. Simon: Hennessey → Mahmoud
Rating for the Derby: ++
There was only one thing that this race was actually good for - and that is to give extra added validation to just how impressively Fierceness performed in the Florida Derby. Fierceness was geared down mid stretch and still beat Muth's final time at the 9f distance. The entire race was completely compromised by some very peculiar riding, almost causing a coin flip for those placing underneath Muth. It is very difficult to take Just Steel's second place finish seriously when considering players for the Kentucky Derby. The entire race appears to be a toss. He has solidified his Derby gate with 65 points in his pocket, 50 of which appear to have been a gift. His configurations are actually very good but with 11 races under his belt, he has yet to show full allegiance to them. This race was his best to date but it came at a price to others. Being the son of Justify, he falls way below the extraordinary talent of his kin in this second crop. He's okay, yes, suitable, yes, but not Derby Wow. He's just not running to it.
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April 6, 2024 Cardinal Condition Stakes - Chelmsford City
BRACKEN'S LAUGH Results 8f Synthetic Final Time: 1:38.26
DP = 2-2-8-4-0 (16) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.13
Mare Profile = 6-7-2-13-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.84 Triads = 15-22-20
Zoffany - Guardia (Monsun) Trainer: R. Hughes Jockey: Finley Marsh
St. Simon: 31.64%
Rating for the Derby: +
Killer Derby configurations, however, this is not a set-up from overseas that would align with our Dirt competitors from the same Stamina Category. That's an entirely different ballgame when it comes to the speed side on Churchill Dirt.
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April 6, 2024 Wood Memorial - Aqueduct
RESILIENCE Results 9f cloudy fast Final Time: 1:50.28
DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50 CD = 0.83
Mare Profile = 2-12-4-13-2 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.95 Triads = 18-29-19
Into Mischief - Meadowsweet (Smart Strike) Trainer: Bill Mott Jockey: J. Velazquez
St. Simon: Raise a Native → Whisk Broom
Rating for the Derby: ++++
I just can't raise his 4 stars to 5 stars, even with a 100 point prep win in the Wood Memorial. His configurations are fantastic but that performance left plenty back on the track. For starters, the race sucked. Starting from the bottom of the race results, we had Deposition fall and was vanned off. We had Gettysburg Address, who was eased. Then Merit, who was bumped, steadied, rank and eased. Next came Deterministic who was completely over-hyped and never a Derby player. Next came Tuscan Sky who was steadied, then Elysian Meadows who was bumped and checked, Uncle Heavy who ran 7 wide. This left three double digit longshots under him who either tired or who where bumped at the start. Then came the drifting and swaying in the stretch. A huge dud of a race with absolutely zero enthusiasm. His configurations are 5 stars but the performance goes nowhere in terms of anything standing out for the Derby. That was a bust.
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April 6, 2024 Blue Grass Stakes - Keeneland
SIERRA LEONE Results 9f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:50.08
DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 5-3-5-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-14-19
Gun Runner - Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon) Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Gaffalione
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: ++++
Sierra Leone gets one extra added star, raising him to 4 stars, mainly because of his incredible physique. As written about in the recent pace article, this race displayed every point made about strategy as it refers to eventual pace and how that will dictate winners and losers. Chad Brown used the maiden winner Top Conor, who was entered into the prestigious Blue Grass Stakes with only one race under his belt for one reason and one reason only. His job was to get up on that lead and to roll off 46.48 and 1:10.83, holding it as long as he possibly could to the benefit of Sierra Leone. Top Conor did exactly what we talked about in that article - he affected the lead tier to the advantage of the rear runner - timed perfectly. In addition, as stated prior, Sierra Leone is built like a Brick House for the 9f Haskell Stakes, which again, aligned with this particular race and he did exactly what he should have done. The Kentucky Derby will revolve around strategies of trainers with multiple entries, as many are perfecting this on a weekly basis. The beloved Derby is a thing of the past and has entered a world resembling more of our disgusting political world. Where optics are supposed to be blind-folded and nothing is truly real. Where what we see with our own two eyes is downplayed and reality has become a joke. It was 150 years in the making, and this is what we are left with. Gone are the days of Seattle Slew, Barbaro, Affirmed and Secretariat. Now we have rabbits who make sure that the high dollar cost of these horses is compensated back to these connections by any means necessary. In Sierra Leone's case, he cost 2.3 million. Top Conor helped make back 531k today by playing rabbit for Sierra Leone and that is why the horse won the 9f Blue Grass stakes with ease. It was an easy read prior to the race and it was executed with perfection. These same tactics will be implemented by many in this year's Derby. Bet your bankroll on it.
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April 6, 2024 Santa Anita Derby - Santa Anita
STRONGHOLD Results 9f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:49.98
DP = 2-4-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67
Mare Profile = 10-4-2-8-4 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.44 Triads = 16-14-14
Ghostzapper - Spectator (Jimmy Creed) Trainer: Phil D'Amato Jockey: Antonio Fresu
St. Simon: 8.59%
Rating for the Derby: +
We found some luck here. Instead of Baffert throwing points into the trash with his "most qualified for the Derby" colts, we actually gained a real contender - and it's one that we can immediately toss without a second thought. This horse has no chance in the Kentucky Derby. The mares contribution is completely backwards in the stamina department. Hoping he steals some action from gullible gamblers who put fast beyers from speedsters coming out of Santa Anita on a high pedestal. Love when that happens. We gained a gift here. Toss. Toss. Toss!
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April 13, 2024 Lexington Stakes - Keeneland
ENCINO Results 8.5f clear fast Final Time: 1:43.93
DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60
Mare Profile = 7-4-3-8-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.91 Triads = 14-15-17
Nyquist - Glittering Jewel (Bernardini) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Geroux
St. Simon: 62.98%
Rating for the Derby: +++
Extremely high percentage to St. Simon, double his sire, Nyquist (36.34%). With a .60 CD and midrange 2.33 chef index, he has the 10f easily, so distance is not going to be a problem. Configurations at face value do not align with Derby, however, a pace that forces those with speed to exert too much early energy will allow colts built like him to continue. The problem is if he insists on taking the lead like he did in this race, he'll need to change his energy a great deal. He could wire the field (like Dornoch) at a much more even-keeled pace, but there are others who will kick it into high gear and leave him further back. That may not be a bad thing for him, however, it will disrupt his winning ways.
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