UPDATED.
Florida Derby - Gulfstream Park 9f
Listed in order of Breeding and Running Style Advantage from Top to Bottom:
Post 10 FIERCENESS ANZ = 9.00
DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.83 Mares = 5-6-6-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 17-20-19
Running Style: Lead
Pace dynamics and breeding: SIMILAR TO NYQUIST, ALWAYS DREAMING, TIZ the LAW
It's all about the break. Untouchable with clean strides in the first 10 seconds.
The E1 and E2 figures that he posted in the Holy Bull were completely out of character and shows the affect of the break and cut off from his early (important) strides. He did recover but much too late. Not one horse on this field compares to the raw talent and speed that he has shown he is capable of. Conquest Warrior will be positioned on his left and is not fast enough to be a punching threat out of the gate this time, but to his right is Iris's Dream who did show some energy last out when the bell went off. Fierceness must break headstrong and perfect, get to the front and work that track exactly like he knows how. He towers over this group for this race, just like he did in the Holy Bull, but this time, Johnny and Todd know exactly what is at stake the second that gate opens. Surely, more emphasis and attention will be committed there this time around. He is perfectly suited for the Kentucky Derby and should he secure those 100 points, the threat at the gate will still follow him either way. One more shot Fierceness! Solitary win bet on his nose.
Post 1 FRANKIE'S EMPIRE ANZ = 7.00
DP = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.17 Mares = 4-5-8-11-3 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.84 Triads = 17-24-22
Running Style: Midpack
Pace dynamics and breeding: SIMILAR TO AUDIBLE and WHITE ABARRIO.
Almost even with Fierceness. Highly advantaged.
This guy has serious configurations, extremely well balanced but for some reason, his running style and his quirks are all over the place. He didn't like the turf. He didn't like the sloppy dirt surface. He moved fast early in one race, then slow early in another. There is no punch coming from from any side which contradicts his inheritance. This could be a direct result from the low total chefs points which makes his mares the dominant influence. That 5.00 (7.00 Anz) gets squashed and pushes everything over to the stamina side. This will work for him with a faster pace, in which he can hope for some retreating horses but he can't compete in the speed department against Fierceness and/or Hades.
Post 9 CONQUEST WARRIOR ANZ = 4.20
DP = 3-9-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 0.68 Mares = 10-4-2-6-10 Speed = 14 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.93 Triads = 16-12-18
Running Style: Forward Rear
Pace dynamics and breeding: SIMILAR TO FORTE and ORB.
Best shot to capitalize off of several with extreme lead tier speed.
With the way he runs and the way he is built, he will reserve his wicked speed til the bitter end and unleash it when Jose gives him the go. If Hades secures that lead - slows the pace and reserves til the end like he did in the Holy Bull, Conquest Warrior gets compromised. If Seminole Chief reverts back to that clean race on dirt at Gulfstream Park in early December, he completely aids Conquest Warrior and a couple of others. Pace does make the race and much of it lands on Rosario's shoulders with Seminole and how he decides to proceed out of that gate.
Post 2 HADES ANZ = 3.89
DP = 3-6-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67 Mares = 10-3-4-4-12 Speed = 13 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.84 Triads = 17-11-20
Running Style: Lead
Pace dynamics and breeding: SIMILAR TO MAXIMUM SECURITY.
May not see same slow pace from Holy Bull. He aids Le Dom Bro if he secures a slower lead.
If left alone, he will take advantage with a moderate pace to reserve as much endurance as possible. If Rosario decides he wants to run this dirt race with 108/109 early pace figures with Seminole Chief, then everything gets twisted for Hades. The horse does have a better post, but his early Beyer figures to date are nowhere near those of Chief's. Two different races and two different paces based on who secures that lead. We certainly can't get into Rosario's head but the feeling is that he will try to overtake that lead because it led to success in the past. This is why I believe Hades is vulnerable in this race should he get caught up in an early speed duel.
Post 6 LE DOM BRO ANZ = 5.00
DP = 2-0-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 Mares = 4-3-10-10-3 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.81 Triads = 17-23-23
Running Style: Lead Tier
Pace dynamics and breeding: SIMILAR TO NONE.
Can't handle energy with faster pace. Highly dependent on who secures the lead and how fast they are pushed.
He's going to bolt for the front with Hades and Chief. The faster it goes, the more his endurance is affected. Not the best with his energy distribution and appears he will have some late problems here. It's a shame because his numbers are situated nicely but looks like he favors the outside influential sires over his stacked and loaded mares. Extremely dependent on the early set pace which, in reality, gives him a 50% chance both ways.
Post 5 REAL MACHO ANZ = 3.00
DP = 2-2-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 Mares = 5-2-9-9-5 Speed = 7 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.75 Triads = 16-20-23
Running Style: Lead Tier
Pace dynamics and breeding: SIMILAR TO CONSTITUTION and MATERIALITY.
Stamina Side overtakes his speed side. Needs a very fast half.
He may very well get it because of Seminole Chief. His configurations are phenomenal but he is completely pace dependent. He spreads his energy evenly across the board and will run his race without any extreme on either side. He'll hope for retreaters in front him and because he prefers to sit between 3rd and 5th position at mid-call, he defaults to easy board-hit potential underneath at this distance. His breeding is overpowered by even-keeled stamina, steady pace, desire for longer distances and hopeful on a retreating lead tier. If playing exotics, he is a safe and reliable bet lower end shot.
Post 4 GRAND MO THE FIRST ANZ = 2.11
DP = 0-1-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.10 Mares = 8-4-6-9-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.24 Triads = 18-19-18
Running Style: Midpack
Pace dynamics and breeding: SIMILAR TO KNOWN AGENDA.
Tied with Real Macho. Highly pace dependent off of faltering lead tier.
We liked his shot in the Tampa Bay Derby and gave him a nod for a board hit in that race based on the Giant's Causeway factor. Highly advantaged for that race but plays against him here. He is bred very similarly to Classic Causeway who pulled off the win in the 2022 Tampa Bay Derby but then retreated in the Florida Derby. Same dynamics for the track surface. Grand Mo needs the set-up - FALTERING SLOW early pace - which is a very rare occurrence.
Post 11 IRIS'S DREAM ANZ = 5.67
DP = 3-5-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.79 Mares = 8-4-4-7-7 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.96 Triads = 16-15-18
Running Style: Midpack
Pace Dynamics and breeding: Similar to None.
Half decent configurations for the race but a maiden winner on turf may be far reaching in the Florida Derby.
Nice chefs speed which aids a great deal on this track. Backed with proper 9f stamina for the distance. It looks as if he may be much happier returning to dirt and should raise off of his last turf race however, his speed may not be quite up to par with a horse like Fierceness yet. He would get a much needed boost if Fierceness gets unlucky yet again out of that gate and he'd have a half decent shot of running his steady race in the pocket up front. In addition, Seminole will retreat at some point, which hits this guy's running style to a T. He will inherit the 3rd position and he has the balance to continue, albeit at a slower pace. The rear guys should catch him but could it be too late? Could be a good play underneath in exotics.
Post 7 CATALYTIC ANZ = 3.00
DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.60 Mares = 10-5-2-7-10 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.93 Triads = 17-14-19
Running Style: Forward MidPack
Pace dynamics and breeding: SIMILAR TO NONE.
Uninspiring and neutral inheritance for such a big race.
Son of Catalina Cruiser that has just as good a shot as any to capitalize second off the layoff. Numbers are boring but perfectly situated for the 9f contest. He sits in the same boat as Iris's Dream and is highly dependent on the early trip of Fierceness. There is no real reason why he couldn't step up here and stake a claim on the bottom end.
Post 3 BAIL US OUT ANZ = 3.24
DP = 6-5-17-0-0 (28) DI = 2.29 CD = 0.61 Mares = 9-5-2-6-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.04 Triads = 16-13-16
Running Style: Midpack
Pace dynamics and breeding: SIMILAR TO NONE.
Out of his league here. Wrong placement.
Post 8 SEMINOLE CHIEF ANZ = 8.00
DP = 1-7-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 CD = 0.90 Mares = 5-9-3-4-4 Speed = 14 Stamina = 8 Index = 1.47 Triads = 17-16-11
Running Style: Lead
Pace dynamics and breeding: SIMILAR TO NONE
He'll be retreating before the final turn, no matter the pace.
This will be Chief's 6th race with 6 different jockeys. The horse is completely and totally built on speed and desires a clean fast track to go with it. His breeding demands that all of his energy be utilized in the early stages and there is no stamina to back it late. He will affect this race's dynamics to a very high degree should Rosario hit that front. He will highly affect the lead tier causing a ripple affect and those with speed to match coupled with readable stamina will take advantage when he begins his retreat.
Past Winners:
2023 - Forte ANZ = 4.71
DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79 Mares = 11-2-5-1-11 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.04 Triads = 18-8-17
Winning Style: REAR - 9th at 1/4, 9th at 1/2 - 46.71 at the half
2022 - White Abarrio ANZ = 5.40
DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75 Mares = 9-5-2-7-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-14-17 (Tapit)
Winning Style: MIDPACK - 5th at 1/4, 5th at 1/2, 47.24 at the half
2021 - Known Agenda ANZ = 1.40
DP = 4-5-8-4-1 (22) DI = 1.44 CD = 0.32 Mares = 10-3-0-6-13 Speed = 13 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.72 Triads = 13-9-19
Winning Style: MIDPACK - 5th at 1/4, 5th at 1/2, 47.73 at the half
2020 - Tiz the Law ANZ = 4.33
DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75 Mares = 7-6-3-7-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-16-14 (Tapit)
Winning Style: LEAD TIER - 4th at 1/4, 3rd at 1/2, 47.95 at the half
2019 - Maximum Security ANZ = 1.93
DP = 5-2-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.86 Mares = 9-3-3-6-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.83 Triads = 15-12-19
Winning Style: GATE TO WIRE - 1st at 1/4, 1st at 1/2, 48.98 at the half
2018 - Audible ANZ = 7.00
DP = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.17 Mares = 7-7-8-8-3 Speed = 14 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.32 Triads = 22-23-19
Winning Style: MIDPACK - 5th at the 1/4, 8th at 1/2, 46.37 at the half
2017 - Always Dreaming ANZ = 7.00
DP = 3-5-4-0-0 (12) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.92 Mares = 3-8-3-7-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.77 Triads = 14-18-16
Winning Style - LEAD TIER - 3rd at 1/4, 2nd at 1/2, 47.08 at the half
2016 - Nyquist ANZ = 23.00
DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.00 Mares = 7-1-7-7-6 Speed = 8 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.85 Triads = 15-15-20
Winning Style: GATE TO WIRE - 1st at 1/4, 1st at 1/2, 47.09 at the half
2015 - Materiality ANZ = 2.33
DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60 Mares = 7-6-3-9-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-18-17
Winning Style - LEAD TIER - 2nd at 1/4, 1st at 1/2, 48.24 at the half
2014 - Constitution ANZ = 3.00
DP = 5-10-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.68 Mares = 8-7-3-5-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.18 Triads = 18-15-15 (Tapit)
Winning Style: LEAD TIER - 3rd at 1/4, 4th at 1/2, 48.19 at the half
2013 - Orb ANZ = 3.31
DP = 11-12-15-0-2 (40) DI = 3.21 CD = 0.75 Mares = 7-2-2-5-10 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.67 Triads = 11-9-17
Winning Style: REAR, 7th at 1/4, 6th at 1/2, 45.45 at the half
Commenti