RACE 12 - SATURDAY, FEB 3rd, 2024 - GULFSTREAM PARK - 8.5f
Post 1 - HADES Paco Lopez
DP = 3-6-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.89
Mare Profile = 10-3-4-4-12 Speed = 13 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.84 Triads = 17-11-20
The presence of Awesome Again in the second generation gives him the necessary (10f) stamina that is highly advantaged in this 8.5f race. The 3.00 chef index balances that scale with the appropriate speed. He is built well for the requirements of this race. He is undefeated at this very track and should easily step forward as he moves on to the 3 year old stage.
Poor figures in his winning 5.5f maiden race is understandable as it was a poor break for most of the field. A lot of banging around just out of the gate and this guy found himself at the rear because of it. He rallied well on such a short track and displayed his speed valiantly. In his last race, he showed himself very well when the break was good. He hit the front to run his race the way he wants. Hades appears to be in a good position to capitalize here between his post and his build for a high board hit. He would need to grow wings though in order to beat Fierceness and he could only have a shot at that if the favorite doesn't break well - ala Champagne. Highly doubt there should be any concern in that happening though.
Post 2 - INVEIGLED Irad Ortiz, Jr.
DP = 2-4-4-2-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 12-2-5-3-12 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.97 Triads = 19-10-20
The configurations are completely off for this race. He appears "chopped" from one side to the other on his scale rather than being balanced. Each side overrides the other. From the field, he aligns closest with Otello, but the glaring difference is that this guy could just as easily flip flop on his energy and style, whereas Otello is reliable and unyielding. This is a direct result of the inheritance from each of their mare's side. It is split for Inveigled, it is stamina-weighted for Otello.
The saving grace could come from his elite jockey if he doesn't push the horse to compete against Fierceness too early. Irad stands out more than the horse for this race. With the chefs line and the jockey, a small piece is not out of the question.
Post 3 - OTELLO Luis Saez
DP = 5-4-12-0-1 (22) DI = 2.14 CD = 0.55 ANZ = 2.43
Mare Profile = 5-6-1-12-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.68 Triads = 12-19-19
This horse is highly stamina driven and he certainly does have the means to travel the 10f that is necessary to have in order to be a player in the Holy Bull. He lacks the inherited speed side though. He gravitates to his dominant stamina side - which he does favor in his running style as well. He is the type of horse who definitely has some reliance on the pace, especially in the mid-stage of the race.
This is not a jazzy horse at all. He is all business with his even-keeled speed and hard-set stamina. He is the type that would relish the Kentucky Derby with a lead tier running the way they did last year. It is the same for this race as well. He should make his reliable move without any bells and whistles and flash. Same exact running, style, performance and outcome on two separate biases so far, with Aqueduct a bit more aligned to his build. His advantage here lies under Fierceness though, main reason being that the Holy Bull requires Inbred High Quality Speed through the chefs. He would need to pull an Algorithms to make this happen. That is a 7% shot against 93% for Fierceness following history. A very tall order indeed but bests the rest.
Post 4 - DANCING GROOM Junior Alvarado
DP = 2-5-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.64 ANZ = 2.27
Mare Profile = 6-3-5-5-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.77 Triads = 14-13-18
Dancing Groom and Domestic Product are very similar and interchangeable with the way they are both built. This guy prefers sitting further back off the pace and against Fierceness, that is a tough spot to tackle if vying for a win. Since there may only be 7 left in the gate, he becomes one to leave for a small token on the super, but it would be only as a lucky straggler.
Post 5 - NO MORE TIME Not This Time
DP = 2-3-11-0-0 (16) DI = 1.91 CD = 0.44 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 6-9-4-7-2 Speed = 15 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.67 Triads = 19-20-13
Half-brother to Simplification and Epicenter should perk interest at Gulfstream at this distance, however, the mare that was mated with the same sire tilts that scale to the extreme. The sire, Not This Time, kicks the speed side up, just as we had seen with the other two. But there was extra stamina through the mares with Epicenter. There was evenly balanced stamina through the mares with Simplification. On the flip side, the mares are highly lopsided to speed for No More Time. That 1.67 mare index says it all. Even his ANZ number through the prominent non-chefs heightens much further than his 2 brothers.
He can run the 8.5f, so a minor board hit is not out of the question. He was on an upward trajectory before he stepped foot in his last gate. However, just like Fierceness in the Champagne, No More Time was the only horse who broke bad and he was rank. He was immediately set off his game. The Much Macho Man is a toss for this horse. The problem is that because of the way he is built and in order stay in competition with Fierceness in the early goings, he may expend all of that heightened speed and may have nothing left on the back end with his stamina. His energy may give-in with a rapid pace.
With all that said, his speed is very high next to that 1.91 index, which could give him just enough for a minor prize with his normal upgrade after that second race. Worth the extra dollars in the lower spots in a super.
Post 6 - DOMESTIC PRODUCT Tyler Gaffalione
DP = 0-2-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 8-4-4-11-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 16-19-21
His scale is better portioned than Dancing Groom but he still sets up to compete against Otello none-the-less. Between this guy, Inveigled, and Dancing Groom, each one has quite enough to come straggling in for a piece. This field may have shrunk overnight and because Fierceness is such a dominant player here, a choice may not have to be made between the three.
Post 7 - FIERCENESS John Velazquez
DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.83 ANZ = 9.00
Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 17-20-19
After working on the Holy Bull race parameters a few articles back, the hope was very high that Pletcher would enter him into this race. And here he is! Fierceness is custom-built for this race, even if he ran it backwards. His numbers, balance, scale and past performances could not be any better aligned with the Holy Bull. The only way that this horse loses this race is if he pulls a bad break like he did in the Champagne. Can't see that happening. OBVIOUSLY, SINGLE ON TOP FOR THE WIN.
Post 8 - SEA STREAK Luca Panici
DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 ANZ = 15.00
Mare Profile = 12-1-5-3-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.36 Triads = 18-9-15
He begins at 3x the amount of inherited speed over stamina. After adding his prominent non-chefs, he rises to 15X the inherited speed over stamina. His mare's line falls to the negative in his stamina side. The scale is completely wrong. These numbers have zero shot in this race. He's a sprinter/miler and that will not work for a win in this race at all.
Fierceness
Hades
Otello - No More Time*
Otello - No More Time*
*No More Time may have been scratched out of this race already and if that is the case, it would only leave 7 starters. One could then conceivably use more in a super bet, but only if you stand firm with at least a single in 1st and 2nd spots. Payouts will be dismal otherwise.
If No More Time is Scratched:
Fierceness
Hades
Otello
Domestic Product - Inveigled - Dancing Groom
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