Point Given and Gary Stevens - 2001 Travers Stakes

2024 Travers Stakes - 10f Saratoga - Fast Dirt

Listed from highest inbred chef speed to highest inbred chef stamina. Mares are taken into consideration separately.

FIERCENESS

DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 9.00

Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-20-19

He has 10f by the skin of his teeth and the far outside gate both helps and hinders him. It helps him have a better chance of breaking well, which we all know is a nail-biter in all of his races. It hinders him because it will be inevitable that he either runs wide and covers more ground than his configurations want to give, or he is used heavier to gain his position which will eat into his late reserves.

This guy is built for speed on a speed favoring track and his mares give him just enough to tackle that oval, with not a whole lot to spare. His past performances have shown that he wants to be first or second out of that gate to prevail. With this crew that he faces, at this distance, with his post, considering all evidence from his past coupled with his scale for Saratoga- Fierceness is running for a board hit. Love this horse, but history is against him for the win.

BATTEN DOWN

DP = 6-14-11-1-0 (32) DI = 3.92   CD = 0.78 ANZ = 4.54

Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 16-16-16 (1st Gen Tapit)

For superfecta consideration, this guy gets pitted together with Honor Marie. Both with stronger ties to a 10f distance - Batten Down running up front with the bias and with a stronger advantage if Anna does not take the lead. Honor Marie running from the rear and hoping for a lead tier melt-down if Anna goes to that lead with a vengeance.

I'm leaning a bit stronger with Batten Down's fate in his inbred ability to run his race with a more balanced distribution of his energy, better position while still saving ground, and thoughts that McPeek won't risk using his filly to fulfil 102+ to 112+ first and second pace figures in a 10f competition against boys. This would enhance Batten Down at this distance, as he should keep a nice fast and even pace throughout. He won't be quick about it but he can endure the 10f+ with even energy distribution.

The standout features for the 10f with this guy are the 32 total chef points, the exaggerated speed indexes (over 3.00) and Tapit providing the necessary stamina to combat the balanced mare scale. These credentials for this particular race are stellar - he just has to show us that he owns it now that he is running at a more optimum distance for his build.

His other hope for at least grabbing a slight piece of the board relies on Fierceness as well. Of course, a bad break from Fierceness helps him wildly, but the other thing is how long Fierceness runs wide should he break well. Pletcher's boy is borderline for the top trophy but he is very well suited for a board hit. Batten Down has the distance with his eyes closed but he is not as fast so his board hit status revolves around the extra lengths that Fierceness will need to endure coming out of the furthest gate.

CORPORATE POWER

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.57

Mare Profile = 9-3-1-8-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.88   Triads = 13-12-17

It would be the upset of the decade if this horse took a stand in this race. No need to waste any time. Mare's inheritance against this group at this distance is simply not good enough.

HONOR MARIE

DP = 9-11-15-1-0 (36) DI = 3.24   CD = 0.78 ANZ = 3.71

Mare Profile = 4-3-6-4-9   Speed = 7   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.61   Triads = 13-13-19

I'm feeling a bit apprehensive with Honor Marie but I'm also getting that superstitious vibe which causes great anxiety. All I can think about is the 3rd place trophy with Tapit Trice from last year's edition. In his corner throughout the Derby season but then he ultimately disappointed with sub-par performances that he should have excelled in leading up to race. This led to dropping him like a hot potato for the Travers super. Huge mistake. Built for the race but disappointed in the prior performances cost dearly in last year's superfecta. Tapit Trice came in and ran a nice 3rd in the Travers. Honor Marie is sitting right there as well.

10f in the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga was Honor Marie's time to shine and he only ran 1/3 of the race. The mid-section. Honor Marie is built for 10f, there is no doubt in my mind about that, but he is running against the bias, not as fast as his peers, (just like Tapit Trice) and truly disappointed in Belmont. While the Kentucky Derby was a toss race for him, there was no excuse for those poor speed figures exiting the Belmont.

Does he turn it around like Tapit Trice did and grabs a piece of the superfecta? I'll tell you this, if I toss him, he will! Again, this all depends on how keen Thorpedo Anna is when she is sent out of that gate.

At 20-1 m/l, his 10f ability makes it a sensible play to at least keep him as an underlay based on superstition.

UNMATCHED WISDOM

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 9.00

Mare Profile = 3-5-9-10-4   Speed = 8   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.74   Triads = 17-24-23

This is a very intriguing horse, again, I see him pitted against Fierceness as well. He is built for this race and although he pales in comparison with the inherited Chef speed, he more than makes up for it through his prominent non-chefs. He skyrockets to a 9.00 ANZ figure. This is on par with Fierceness in terms of potential speed, but notice the difference with the inherited stamina aspect - Wisdom is sporting a very low .74 mare index while Fierceness is at .92. Wisdom is built to carry his (potential) speed further than Fierceness.

In terms of that endurance factor, he is more aligned with Batten Down but with much more potential within his inherited speed. That's a very good combination for this race. He ran completely and perfectly balanced throughout his Curlin race at Saratoga last out and since he controlled the pace, there was no need to push the horse any faster than he needed to go. He kept his pace at just enough to secure his lead against a nagging Corporate Power who tried unsuccessfully to pass. There was no need to exhume more energy from him than needed. This, in turn, makes it that much harder to discern just how fast this horse can ultimately go.

Configurations-wise, Wisdom leans much heavier to the stamina side and favors his mares but his speed reserves are actually present for the taking. What I see as a bad sign though is his workout times for a "lead runner" - they are way off! It would appear that the stellar mare configurations are his entire make-up and even though the ANZ figure hikes up to a 9.00, he only goes from 4 total points to 10 total points. He is a severely attached mama's boy straight across. Killer endurance who is running on natural speed. He doesn't have early "sprinting" capabilities like Thorpedo Anna or Fierceness - he wants it moderate and balanced. Will he get that with this crew? And even if he did, he'd then be in straight competition with the likes of Dornoch and Sierra Leone.

THORPEDO ANNA

DP = 4-3-4-1-0 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 6-9-3-7-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.09   Triads = 18-19-16

Serious early speed capability that will affect the entire race should McPeek look to race her in the same manner as she rolled in the Oaks and the Acorn. As you all know, the configurations that we successfully rely on throughout the year are strictly for the boys on dirt. I hate to even chime in when it comes to a filly facing the boys and the usual play is to spread them across the board and walk away. But the distribution of the M/L odds coupled with her fierce early speed is forcing my hand to take a stand - at least with the top of the ticket.

Please take her analysis with a grain of salt. Fillies rarely align with their numbers unless their names are Zenyatta or Rachel Alexandra or Winx or Genuine Risk or Winning Colors, or even Swiss Skydiver, etc. What these types of fillies have is high caliber and high quality and they run exactly to their numbers just like the boys.

With that said, Thorpedo Anna does appear to be that high caliber type, and if that is true, her numbers do not give her the 10f. Again, this is highly speculative and highly unreliable, but face value, it's just not there. At 10f, the mares bestow much more additional speed into the mix, as well as her prominent non-chefs. This is why she is a beast at 9f and under - if, and only if, she is truly running to those numbers.

Specifically, that mare line (for a colt) is wrong for this race. A horse with these configurations would need to run like Golden Ticket to succeed. That would be a 7.14% chance of outrunning her numbers in this specific race.

Looking outside the configurations to find any evidence of their possible alignment also points to a probable distance limitation. Her running style coincides, her fierce early speed figures and favoritism to lean on the dominant structure of her scale (the speed side) and her ability to conquer a 9f sloppy dirt track. Most telling as well, the massive drop in late energy when she is extra keen out of the gate. All of that does coincide with her configurations.

But here is the tricky part - Hernandez allowed another to take the lead and kept Anna at bay stalking another's pace in her last two. That strategy in this race would keep her early pace in check which would highly accentuate a better distribution of her energy. This is where Unmatched Wisdom comes into play and why his presence is a strong advantage for Anna. Wisdom's average early pace out front is nowhere near Anna's capability and if she stays low keyed behind him, she reserves so much more to compete late. If she is keen and goes forward to lead, she'll leave Wisdom in the dust but that will be a detriment to her at the top of the stretch. (If she follows her configurations)

If she had drawn to the outside, it would have actually helped us with determining the likelihood of her probable early stalking position but because she drew that one hole, this will remain in the air. She either flies out of that gate much faster than Wisdom and attempts the gate to wire win or she relaxes out of the gate, reserves that energy, and stalks a slower pace which will ultimately get her more distance on that bias. This is up to McPeek and Hernandez and only the insiders will know their early strategy. As usual with a filly facing the boys, I'll spend the extra and use her but this time, I'm not too happy about it. Based on this last workout, I say they send her because they may not have a choice:

DORNOCH

DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57 ANZ = 2.50

Mare Profile = 7-8-2-9-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.89   Triads = 17-19-19

Is Dornoch good enough to pull off the Belmont-Haskell-Travers Triple Slam in the same manner as Point Given? Granted, Point Given threw two extra furlongs in there, but who's gonna notice? Both with forward running styles and both with stamina to burn, Dornoch certainly does have the credentials to make it happen.

Dornoch reminds me very much of Two Phil's. Same scale. Same balance. Same line through Hard Spun, but more importantly, same grit and determination and stamina. Back in 2023, Two Phil's was the only contender in the 20 horse field of the Derby to remain on the lead tier throughout the entire race. All the others did no better than 14th, while Two Phil's held for 2nd place, only 1 length behind the winner Mage. That race was run in 45.73 and 1:10.11. There is something to be said about stamina out front, especially with a horse who has the raw ability to kick it into high gear when he turns for home.

But Dornoch has one extra gem in his back pocket that Two Phil's didn't have - that is the presence of Miswaki in his 4th generation. This is the diamond that pointed Dornoch out as a major player after his 8.5f maiden win and then he put a stamp on it after breaking again in the stretch at Aqueduct to secure the Remsen trophy. Miswaki is a major conduit of excessive speed coupled with raw stamina worthy of the turf. An incredible combination that rarely fails to present itself through the lines.

What stands out the most about this horse is the sheer determination that somehow appears when he hits that stretch. His strong built-in stamina that goes against the grain of his running style remains as a true asset for 10f at Saratoga as well. That stamina quality with his class against all of the speed in this race truly stands out. For this reason, my normal tendency to try to beat the odds for the win will be pushed aside with hopes that he allows Fierceness and Anna to unleash their wicked inbred speed all the way through the backstretch as he patiently waits for his cue.

Now for the disheartening part. The potential problem I see with Dornoch is the fact that he has only won his races when sitting in the first or second spot. This could potentially lead to disaster on two fronts. He would either be forced to run early figures much higher than he has ever seen or he would be forced to sit further off of a larger group of speed than he naturally wants. This is where the vulnerability lies this time around and how easily Sierra Leone could find his revenge.

If McPeek sends Thorpedo Anna out to duplicate her early figures from either the Acorn or the Oaks, Dornoch either gets caught up in it or he is forced to sit too far away from it. Neither would be to his liking. The addition of the filly truly hits Dornoch's fate the hardest. I want to single him, but I can't. Saez's precision in his position gives him one extra obstacle to overcome while Prat can sit back and enjoy that show from a rear vantage point.

I really want to single Dornoch in this race as I think he is the best on the field. This would have given a better opportunity to profit while using a couple extra underneath, but Anna has thrown a curveball that can't be denied. She affects Dornoch and he has much more to overcome this time around.

Best case scenario - They send this monster out and allow the field to chase him. Let his class dictate, let his stamina get him around that oval and allow his grit to kick it up a notch in the stretch.

SIERRA LEONE

DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.50

Mare Profile = 5-3-5-6-8   Speed = 8   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.67   Triads = 13-14-19

The tables turn from the 9f Jim Dandy when it comes to advantage between Sierra Leone and Fierceness at this distance, but not against Dornoch. But there is one thing that Sierra Leone may be able to lean on traveling this distance now that it is late August that needs to be taken very seriously at the windows.

No matter how good this horse has performed from the beginning, there is something to be said about the "extra blossoming aspect" of a Candy Ride descendent in the proceeding months after the Triple Crown, especially at this distance.

In addition, this field is filled with lead tier speed which certainly does not hinder his cause. The presence of Thorpedo Anna (with Fierceness) is the entire enchilada when it comes to Sierra Leone's fate. If Torpedo Anna is one of those rare fillies who actually does run to her numbers, she will burst from that one hole (taking Fierceness with her if he breaks well) and she will gradually lose energy as she nears the top of the stretch. Those two will affect the entire pace structure on that bias. This only plays to the good for a blooming Candy Ride boy who can work a fast bias even with his running style.

He will also have Unmatched Wisdom who will want a piece of that front as well, which again, could play right into Sierra Leone's hands at 10f. Of course, this could easily be the ultimate strategy for Chad Brown as well. Use his lead guy to take out the front tier and Sierra glides home. This, of course, allows Chad to deal with Dornoch on his own terms. Something to consider.

The insistence for the lead between those three on a faster bias could take its toll on that front tier and Sierra Leone will capitalize in that scenario. A more moderate pace and he will face a group that does have the means to take it all the way with their advantageous position.

It boils down to how you see the race unfolding within the first 1/2 mile. A few of his lead tier opponents have the stamina to lead to the wire, however, they do not have the means to do it at such an accelerated pace. It will affect their late energy. Only Dornoch has shown that he can hit those 100+ figures mid race and still sustain his late energy, but at what price? For these reasons, (and I hate to do it) I can't use a single in this year's edition. It's all Anna's fault.

At the moment, my heart is saying to cast Dornoch as the solo leading man in this movie, but my brain is saying we need two main stars on this marque due to potential pace structures (and strategies).

Dornoch is Brad Pitt and Sierra Leone is George Clooney.

Supporting roles go to Batten Down and Fierceness to fill out the super.

Honor Marie might be cast as the superstitious underneath addition.

Thorpedo Anna simply remains a thorn in my side. If budget and odds permits, the producers of this script may insist on a female protagonist.