Analysis pertains to Kentucky Derby Potential and has no bearing on Future Derby Preps.

Updated Weekly. One Star to Five Stars

9/14/2024 - IROQUOIS STAKES - Churchill Downs

JONATHAN'S WAY   Results Chart   8f Fast Dirt Final Time: 1:36.08

DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.00   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 7-3-6-8-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.96   Triads = 16-17-19

Vekoma - Female Drama (Indian Charlie) Trainer: Philip Bauer

St. Simon: 27.75%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Not a huge fan of the race in terms of Derby players, however, the inheritance as it pertains to the 10f coupled with a forward running style and a smashing Equibase figure of 100, truly appears extremely promising. As those points align with his obvious slant towards stamina is exceptional and cannot be overlooked. As a young new sire, Vekoma is really standing out as a huge stamina influence and when one of his sons displays knock out speed on the lead on a fast bias, you must take notice. He is sitting pretty as a configured stamina-type in the same fashion as Algorithms, Dornoch, and Two Phil's, those who have a steady forward drive with stamina to burn. The 28% linebreeding to St. Simon is also a huge bonus for this type of runner as well. Obvious questions on the barn that he is sitting in, but the horse has some serious potential if he continues on this speedy path with those configurations.

9/28/2024 - BERESFORD STAKES - Curragh

HOTAZHELL Replay 8f Turf Final Time: 1:38.16

DP = 2-5-6-9-0 (22) DI = 0.83   CD = 0.00 ANZ = 1.77   CD = 0.33

Mare Profile = 4-11-1-11-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.83   Triads = 16-23-18

Two Darn Hot (GB) - Azenar (GB) (Danehill Dancer) Trainer: Mrs. J Harrington

St. Simon: 30.47%

Rating for the Derby: Turf

9/28/2024 - JUDDMONTE ROYAL LODGE - New Market

WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE Replay 8f Turf Final Time: 1:38.38

DP = 2-2-5-1-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 1.33   CD = 0.29

Mare Profile = 3-6-4-9-9   Speed = 9   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.52   Triads = 13-19-22

Kameko - Eva Maria (GB) (Sea the Stars - IRE) Trainer: Owen James

St. Simon = 27.74

Rating for the Derby: Turf

Even though both of these two overseas early Derby Prep winners in Europe have stunning configurations as usual, neither race produced anything of substance for further consideration when it comes to either Derby race this year.

10/5/2024 - AMERICAN PHAROAH STAKES - Santa Anita

CITIZEN BULL Results Chart 8.5f fast dirt Final Time: 1:44.30

DP = 2-6-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-26-18

Into Mischief - No Joke (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Bob Baffert

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

There is always an Into Mischief son who rises to the occasion as a top contender for the Derby, however, there are a few things that are saying this isn't the one. Great numbers for the BC Juvenile on the DelMar surface, however, a bit too hefty on the speed side of the scale to hold his endurance for the full 10f at a heightened pace. Killer set-up for the Derby Road but the CD's are very high. As it pertains to Baffert, it used to be rare that his charges ran anywhere close to their numbers, which led to my refusal to even analyze them. But after what transpired with the long ban, maybe we can get back to order. I do believe in my heart that Baffert will be a huge player in this year's Derby, he is hungry for redemption. This horse will be extremely competitive against East Avenue in the Juvenile because of their configurations. In addition, The numbers and the way he runs is screaming Preakness, not Derby. Baffert's second place horse in this race appears more suitable for the 10f and is also performing well. Getaway Car needs to break through those speed demons on those slick West Coast biases at the shorter distances of the trail and notch some high points along the way. He is the 10f player.

2nd Place: GETAWAY CAR

DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 4.00 CD = .85

Mare Profile = 8-3-1-8-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.69   Triads = 12-12-19

Curlin - Surrender Now (Morning Line) Trainer: Bob Baffert

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

After Authentic Spirit was vanned off the field in August, Getaway Car jumped up the ladder as one coming from Baffert's barn who is configured properly for the 10f distance of the Derby. Look at the difference in the mare scales in terms of stamina between this guy and Citizen Bull. There is no comparison there and Getaway Car still retains 4x the amount of speed over stamina from his chefs to balance the scale properly for the Derby. This guy is not a speedster and he will not be as fancy on that track visually in these 9f and under races. But he was still competitive here and showed allegiance to the chef side while still blessed with major endurance. Citizen Bull will retain the hype all the way through including the well-suited BC Juvenile, but it is Getaway Car that is properly configured for the 10f Kentucky Derby, that is, if he can somehow manage to secure the necessary points in these upcoming prep races that are below his optimum distances. Eventually, he will.

10/5/2024 - BREEDERS FUTURITY - Keeneland

EAST AVENUE Results Chart 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:43.17

DP = 5-9-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 3.00 CD = .71

Mare Profile = 13-3-2-5-6   Speed = 16   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.63   Triads = 18-10-13

Medagia d'Oro - Dance Music (Ghostzapper) Trainer: Brendan Walsh

St. Simon: 14.45%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

As mentioned here at the DHC after his maiden, this is a very good horse and definitely deserves to be put in your virtual stable for the Derby Trail, however, his mare's entire line is completely off for the 10f Derby. He is a Jackson Bend/Shackleford type who is perfect for the BC Juvenile and all the way through to next year's Dirt Mile. His chefs impart the stamina, his mares are completely dominant in the Brilliant category and his mare scale tips too far over on the speed side, along with descending triads. Love this guy and he should easily grab tons of points on the trail, but he is not suited on the endurance side for the 10f Derby. Preakness could be a possibility based on the St. Simon factor and his courageous determination. A stand-out with severe potential, but the Kentucky Derby is not his race unless he completely out-rides his inheritance. That's a very rare occurrence and quite a tall order. BC Juvenile, yes. BC Dirt Mile next year, yes. 10f Derby, unfortunately it's not there.

10/5/2024 - CHAMPAGNE STAKES - Aqueduct

CHANCER McPATRICK Results Chart 8f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:36.51

DP = 1-2-4-1-0 (8) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.38 ANZ = 2.20 CD: .44

Mare Profile = 7-4-4-6-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-14-16

McKinzie - Bernadreamy (Bernardini) Trainer: Chad Brown

St. Simon: 18.76%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

Chancer McPatrick has the 10f distance by a nose and he has performed very well in his early races, there is no doubt about that. The problem he has for the Kentucky Derby is two-fold. The first is the lack of chefs which pushes his dominant influence on to his elite listed mares. This side of the balance is highly lacking for the standards of the Kentucky Derby. The 1.67 index, the chefs CD and the 19% from St. Simon is just fine for the distance, it is the speed side in his inheritance at that distance where the downfall arises. The triads as well are highly under-par. He is just fine for the trail when the speed demons falter so he will continue to rack up points when facing distance-limited foes or when the track bias defeats them, but historically speaking, his speed inheritance lacks the proper jets to find favor at 10f in the Derby.

10/6/2024 - JEAN-LUC LEGARDERE - Longchamp

CAMILLE PISSARRO Replay 7f Soft Turf Final Time: 1:20.58

DP = 0-7-10-1-0 (18) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.33 ANZ = 2.00 CD = .33

Mare Profile = 9-4-3-8-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.09   Triads = 16-15-17

Whooten Bassett (GB) - Entreat (GB) (Pivotal GB) Trainer: Aiden O'Brien

St. Simon = 42.97%

Rating for the Derby: Turf

Yet another day of Aiden being Aiden! This guy will stay on turf and we'll see if he can follow in Auguste's footsteps. He'll be put on hold til his 3 year old campaign.

10/26/2024 - FUTURITY TROPHY - Doncaster

HOTAZHELL Replay 8f Turf Final Time: 1:38.16

DP = 2-5-6-9-0 (22) DI = 0.83   CD = 0.00 ANZ = 1.77   CD = 0.33

Mare Profile = 4-11-1-11-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.83   Triads = 16-23-18

Two Darn Hot (GB) - Azenar (GB) (Danehill Dancer) Trainer: Mrs. J Harrington

St. Simon: 30.47%

Rating for the Derby: Turf

The second Derby prep win for this turf runner. He came a nose ahead of Delacroix (Aiden O'Brien). He may just be something special but not for the Kentucky Derby.

10/27/2024 - STREET SENSE STAKES - Churchill Downs

SOVEREIGNTY Results 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:43.86

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00 CD = .92

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-22-16

Into Mischief - Crowned (Bernardini) Trainer: Bill Mott

St. Simon: 16.41%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

As pointed out in the 2 year old watch article at the end of September, this Into Mischief son was hot on the heels of Praetor in his last out with style and substance. While the last slot of his triads are a couple of points off, the Bernardini and St. Simon aspect could easily offset. Major speed and "almost" major stamina are the proper configurations to be considered within a top 4 player at 10f at Churchill. If I could give 4.5 stars I would have done that. The fact that he is a back end runner suggests that he is clearly grabbing a hold of that stamina side and not allowing the dominant 7.00 ANZ figure to dictate him. This is why he gets the 5 stars instead of 4.

11/1/2024 - BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE - DelMar

CITIZEN BULL Results Chart 8.5f fast dirt Final Time: 1:44.30

DP = 2-6-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-26-18

Into Mischief - No Joke (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Bob Baffert

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby:  ♥ ♥ ♥

There will be no change to his star rating from his win in the American Pharoah Stakes for the time being. There are two reasons. The first is because the same exact Baffert playbook was employed in this race whereby Baffert's lead is allowed to crawl all the way around that race track. Based on the highly slick bias on Breeders Weekend, this guy was allowed to tackle 8.5f in a paltry 23.44 47.89 1:12.21 1:36.53 1:43.07 against his stablemate. That has to be the slowest call times of the entire weekend. It is the exact same Baffert race over and over again. Slow down the front lead and take it gate to wire. The second and most important reason for staying at 3 stars is because his entire Chef line on an exceptionally fast bias makes those call figures look even worse. I do believe that Baffert will be the main trainer of the 2025 Derby, it's just not with this particular colt. While the mare profile does have some nice points to it, a horse cannot have his wins spoon fed, especially with overtly speedy 9.00/11.00 indexes. As with every other horse, a Prep win does not constitute a player, one must see evidence that he is utilizing both sides of his scale.

11/23/2024 - CATTLEYA SHO - Tokyo Racecourse

NATURAL RISE Race Replay 8f Fast Dirt Final Time: 1:36.4

DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.80 ANZ: 5.00

Mare Profile = 7-5-4-8-4   Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.15   Triads = 16-17-16

Kizuna - Lady Madonna (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Keizo Ito

St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon 18.75%

Rating for the Derby: ♥

Recall the 2022 Kentucky Derby contender, Summer is Tomorrow, who stormed to the lead and rolled off 21.78 and 45.36 for the opening which, in turn, handed the roses to Rich Strike who persevered from the rear. If Natural Rise manages to secure a gate for 2025, expect a repeat. This horse has speed on dirt but he has no chance at sustaining it for 10f. The main character and future star emerging from the Cattleya Sho was the second place finisher. This is the guy who we will definitely learn to know over the coming months.

CLAY KING - 2nd place finisher

DP = 1-6-7-2-0 (16) DI = 1.91   CD = 0.38 ANZ: 2:14

Mare Profile = 6-4-6-7-8   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.76   Triads = 16-17-21

Nadal - Queen Amaranthus (King Kamehameha) Trainer: Eija Nakadate Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

St. Simon: 35.75%

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

The acceleration that Clay King displayed down that stretch at the short 8f was spectacular. He would have easily passed the sprinter had he not run out of track. His configurations are perfection for the Derby but the fact that he displayed such raw speed while so stamina dominant is what stands out. This was a full field of 16 contenders and he made such a professional late move with an incredible late burst of raw speed. This is the 10f guy from Japan who has what it takes. Magnificent cast of characters in his chart, distance is in the bag and his speed rivals the early ones. Excellent Future Potential.

11/30/2024 - KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB - Churchill Downs

FIRST RESORT Race Results 8.5f Snowing Fast Final Time: 1:43.01

DP = 1-2-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 1.67

Mare Profile = 7-3-4-9-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.91   Triads = 14-16-18

Uncle Mo - Fair Maiden (Street Boss) Trainer: Eoin Harty Jockey: Luis Saez

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥

It was snowing at the track for this race which completely bulldozes it in terms of a serious Derby prep. It is a toss. Too many negatives in the configurations along with the first two call figures at 24.56 and 49.30 to take this colt serious as a player in the Derby after this race. He would have to come back, win another prep, and shave off at least 3 seconds for any consideration. Even still, this would not change his mare figures, nor would it add any of the additional speed into his stamina configurations that is necessary on a Spring Churchill track.

12/7/2024 - REMSEN STAKES - Aqueduct

POSTER Race Results 9f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:50.37

DP = 2-7-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.69 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 8-5-3-5-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.00   Triads = 16-13-16 (2nd gen Tapit)

Munnings - Pin Up (Tapit) Trainer: Eoin Harty Jockey: Flavien Prat

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

This is the second prep win in a row for Godolphin and trainer Eoin Harty. The Remsen Stakes is notorious for stamina taking the trophy. It is a 9f contest with a stamina bias in the middle of winter. The Tapit factor (along with Giant's Causeway) is a huge tell for this race, in the same manner as the Tampa Bay Derby. Every year, we have at least one Tapit offspring and Poster becomes the first to garner Derby points. Tapit horses do not win the Derby, but they do have the goods to be a player for a board hit when their chef indexes come in over 3.20. They need to have the necessary speed to offset that Tapit stamina. With a 3.57 index (ANZ at 4.14) along with a 1.00 Mare Index, he is configured properly to keep an eye on going forward.

12/11/2024 - ZEN-NIPPON NISAI YUSHAN - Kawasaki

MYRIAD LOVE Race Replay 8f Final Time: 1:42.40

DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 1.18

Mare Profile = 6-2-5-7-5   Speed = 8   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.86   Triads = 13-14-17

New Year's Day - Ladybird (Smart Falcon) Trainer: Kiochi Shintani Jockey: Atsuya Nishimura

St. Simon: Halo → Blue Larkspur

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

Myriad Love becomes the first filly in 8 years to win this race. She beat a legitimate field of 10 male competitors including the offspring of Le Vent Se Leve, Soldier Field (who came in third). For Myriad Love, the configurations do give her the 10f distance but in a roundabout way. The prominent non-chefs aid in that regard and while her mares have a stamina leaning balance, the triads lack severely. Roman's chefs only allow 2 total points, those coming from Mr. Prospector (B,C) in her 4th generation. She retains 3 stars for the 10f ability, however, the configurations themselves are stagnant for the Kentucky Derby. If given a choice for the Derby, it would be Soldier Field (♥ ♥ ♥ ♥) in Kentucky - way over Myriad Love.

12/13/2024 - SPRINGBOARD MILE - Remington Park

COAL BATTLE Race Results 8f Hazy Fast Final Time: 1:39.25

DP = 1-7-3-1-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.80

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-5-5   Speed = 15   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.42   Triads = 19-16-14

Coal Front - Wolfblade (Midshipman) Trainer: Lonnie Briley Jockey: Juan Vargas

St. Simon: 28.13%

Rating for the Derby: ♥

Dominant 7 points in the Intermediate Category of the Chefs profile equals NO. Mare Balance is a negative 5 points leaning to speed equals NO. Mare index at a very high 1.42 equals No. Triads disintegrating down the stamina scale equals NO. St. Simon percentage helps but would never offset. This horse has no chance at 10f at Churchill Downs.

12/14/2024 - LOS ALAMITOS FUTURITY - Los Alamitos