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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2025 Derby Prep Winners - Part One


Analysis pertains to Kentucky Derby Potential and has no bearing on Future Derby Preps.

Updated Weekly. One Star to Five Stars


 

9/14/2024 - IROQUOIS STAKES - Churchill Downs

JONATHAN'S WAY   Results Chart   8f Fast Dirt Final Time: 1:36.08

DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.00   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 7-3-6-8-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.96   Triads = 16-17-19

Vekoma - Female Drama (Indian Charlie) Trainer: Philip Bauer

St. Simon: 27.75%

Rating for the Derby: ++++

Not a huge fan of the race in terms of Derby players, however, the inheritance as it pertains to the 10f coupled with a forward running style and a smashing Equibase figure of 100, truly appears extremely promising. As those points align with his obvious slant towards stamina is exceptional and cannot be overlooked. As a young new sire, Vekoma is really standing out as a huge stamina influence and when one of his sons displays knock out speed on the lead on a fast bias, you must take notice. He is sitting pretty as a configured stamina-type in the same fashion as Algorithms, Dornoch, and Two Phil's, those who have a steady forward drive with stamina to burn. The 28% linebreeding to St. Simon is also a huge bonus for this type of runner as well. Obvious questions on the barn that he is sitting in, but the horse has some serious potential if he continues on this speedy path with those configurations.

 

9/28/2024 - BERESFORD STAKES - Curragh

9/28/2024 - JUDDMONTE ROYAL LODGE - New Market


5 Comments


Unknown member
3 days ago

Will be watching for Tap Into This as well. From Pedegree Query DP = 5-11-16-6-0 (38) DI = 1.71  

CD = 0.39 - 1 Starts, 0 Wins, 1 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: $24,000


~ Nine months to go, and today the counting begins all over again. Could the 9/17 Neil Young Harvest Moon on Wednesday be a forerunner to a Dapper Moon on the first Saturday in May? Twenty will be in the prospective gate and they will all come from somewhere. Thinking Lisa and her companions will ferret out our winner this year. Staying with the Dirty Horse Process once more. Riders Up!


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Unknown member
2 days ago
Replying to

A Tapit boy with a 1.71 chef index for the Kentucky Derby?? OUCH!


He would need to show some serious speed on the Derby Road. I forget what Rule number that is but a Tapit offspring under 3.00 is close to taboo for the Derby - unless he is a complete early speedy monster. Wouldn't hurt if he ran closer to the lead as well. We shall keep our eyes on him.

Edited
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Unknown member
3 days ago

Personally, I will follow Owen Almighty out of that race. Looks like speed on the turf or dirt.

Dosage Profile: 4 5 7 0 0

Dosage Index: 3.57

Center of Distribution: +0.81


Inbreeding:


Storm Cat: 3S X 4D

Secretariat: 4S X 5S

Storm Bird: 4S X 5D

Terlingua: 4S X 5D

Bold Ruler: 5S X 5S

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Unknown member
2 days ago
Replying to

To be honest, I think he is a good Derby Road horse but I don't think he's built correctly for the Derby. He raises to a 4.33 ANZ figure (which is nice) but his mares line is flat against it.

6-4-8-5-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.04 Triads = 18-17-18

It's not bad but it's fairly stagnant for Churchill in May. The two 10's in his speed/stamina scale may imply that he would need to run through those numbers which could prove to be a tall order. Its not impossible but it is a bit of an obstacle.

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Unknown member
3 days ago

"And We 're Off." Thank you Lisa! Looking forward to your all of Tapit conundrums as well this year, lol.

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