Three weeks to go. The field is beginning to take shape.

There were quite a few colts who began the trail with the necessary perfect components to be competitive in this race, but unfortunately, they could not manipulate their breeding to capture the points in the speedier shorter races.

As is the case year after year, those very horses will begin to shine over the coming year.

With a layout finally in hand, things are beginning to make a little bit of sense now. Individual horses can now be read within the context of each other when viewing running styles, progression, projection and mainly, breeding.

As we all know, year after year, the best bred and best performing colts do not always get the best trip in Kentucky. We can only set our focus on the players who align correctly and who have displayed their "pre-destined" inheritance with complete professionalism while we block out all of the hyped-up noise.

The following SIX thoroughbreds, at the current moment, have become top priority for the Dirty Horse Club since the field has been laid out. As you know, we never subscribe to the hype, preferring to side with history, evidence and quality. Adhering to this strict code has pointed some of these players out from the very beginning, and some have revealed themselves towards the end.

Definitely not set in stone yet with 3 weeks of work still to go, but at the moment, here's a glimpse of where things are headed.

RODRIGUEZ

Authentic - Cayala (Into Mischief)

Bob Baffert Mike Smith

The mark of a top Kentucky Derby player is one who is built with massive stamina coupled with massive speed within their breeding. As stated in Luxor Cafe's article, the historical layout of their configurations will point out optimum distance and suitability within their balance, but the horse must DISPLAY his attachment to those "pre-destined" qualifications.

His configurations alone, both top and bottom, sit at the highest level within the field at this point. They are perfect. When a stamina horse runs out on the lead tier, displaying evenly paced killer speed, the evidence of capturing both sides of that hefty scale is wholly apparent.

Fancy high beyers in shorter races do not point out a 10f Kentucky Derby player. The colt needs to inherit the proper balance in order to sustain his endurance and still reveal late reserved energy past the 9.5f mark. These are the colts who may not have matched the sprinters of the earlier shorter races, but still held their own in defeat.

Most all colts will be able to tackle 9f to 9.5f. Some are positioned to be at their optimum at those marks. With each passing race, they excel in their performances which puts them on a certain perceived projection that, in some cases, is false. This, in turn, dismisses the correlation between breeding and endurance and hurts the handicapper.

Then there are other colts who competed previously below their true inheritance, remained competitive, and will only project their true quality when not presented with disadvantages. The Wood Memorial winner gave evidence of his acceptance of his speed ability starting with his maiden win, his competency with a bias outside of Santa Anita and DelMar, his high stamina dominance on the Aqueduct bias and his dexterity with traveling outside of his backyard.

LUXOR CAFE

American Pharoah - Mary's Follies (More Than Ready)

Noriyuki Hori Joao Moreira

Japan had a full year to ready themselves for the world stage and they revealed their horsemanship with complete dominance on Dubai day. They will stay the course when they travel to the United States, looking to redeem themselves from Forever Young's 3rd place trophy in 2024. They just keep getting better and better with each passing year.

Luxor Cafe does not have typical Kentucky Derby configurations. He would be in the same boat as his sire, American Pharoah, who would need to outrun the disadvantage found within those configurations. Based on his race record, his diverse form, his undeniable speed and outward allegiance to his stamina, the quality he possesses is highly apparent.

It takes a special aspect of character within any thoroughbred to outwardly showcase his will power and complete dominance over the pack. The full fields of 10 to 16 competitors were completely squashed over and over again. The skill to thrive on various biases was revealed in all 5 of his races. The tenacity to bypass every one of his competitors, those who then appeared to look like allowance horses next to him. Finally, a chart which states that he'll thrive at the given 10f task and beyond.

SOVEREIGNTY

Into Mischief - Crowned (Bernardini)

Bill Mott Manny Franco

This guy is the second offspring from the line to Into Mischief on this list. He is quite the opposite of Rodriguez and also with the rest of his kin who are scheduled to occupy a Derby gate. His rear style of running demonstrates favoritism towards his stamina side, as opposed to the speed side wanting to run from the top like all the others.

Reserving that energy to be full of run down the stretch should serve him very well on Derby Day. There is a ton of lead speed sitting on that leaderboard and the 3.00+ category is stacked this year. Some have the endurance, while some do not.

The bottom half of Sovereignty's configurations are not exactly perfect, but the fact that he wants to reserve all of his inbred speed for the late jaunt down that stretch plays to his favor amongst all of his cousins out front. In every one of his five races, regardless of distance, this horse has continued to expose his perfect record of endurance and stamina strength.

The past performance comments straight up the line show no deviation to his preferred form regardless of the distances he has conquered. First race - Closed Well. Second race - Gain. Third race - Drew Clear. Fourth race - Surged. Fifth race - Gaining.

Based on the amount of Into Mischief offspring and the high amount of "need to lead" opponents that he will face, his style and breeding should serve him well, regardless of pace, with the strong possibility of stepping up from the 9f Florida Derby to 10f in Kentucky. After all, he was "gaining" on Tappan Street and ran out of track.

PUBLISHER

American Pharoah - Indian Pride (Cherokee Run)

Steve Asmussen - Irad Ortiz, Jr.

This new addition into the fold should come as a big surprise at this stage. Here sits another son of American Pharoah, but this one has yet to post a win along the way. With 7 races under his belt, (one being a toss), there is something in each one of those performances that is revealing a very high quality horse.

He may not have captured a trophy in those 7f to 9f races, but in each one of them, there is high evidence of a horse who wants and needs a longer track. He has consistently gained the same type of "Sovereignty Comments" along the way, reserving his speed with the power to retain a minor spot within a 10f superfecta. While there are a few others, like Sandman, who have every shot to do the same, it is the breeding which gives him a slight upper hand in the handicapping process.

Even though the wins have been elusive below his optimum, his past performances are revealing a horse who can work on a clean track, a sloppy track, and multiple biases, just like his kin, Luxor Cafe. He has surged in every one of his races, with very nice energy distribution, all below his optimum and still managed to beat out a ton of very good and well-bred horses for a gate. That, in and of itself, is the biggest win of all.

With a good clean trip, Publisher is built to be a player and has produced the evidence that he will have the jets to surge in the end. How he is used within the superfecta still remains to be seen.

ADMIRE DAYTONA

Drefong - Ice Pastel (Shackleford)

Yukihiro Kato Christophe Lemaire

It should be no shocker that Admire Daytona surges on DHC's top colts list after his stellar performance in Dubai.

The exceptional early match up between him and Luxor back in November of last year revealed strong ties to his massive speed inheritance and his performance in the UAE Derby solidified his ties to his stamina side. The 4th place in the Hyacinth was still a massive effort for a horse who was only provided two weeks of rest and recuperation between races and also attempting that race without Lemaire.

The fact that Christophe Lemaire will travel with this horse is a huge plus, but the main reason why he retains this spot is because he will be the only competitor on the field sitting within the stamina category. There is a huge advantage in superfecta placement with this type of horse, along with the obvious drive of the Japanese Racing Association to send their very best to compete and ultimately take that elusive trophy back home.

His breeding splits with two scales heavy on both sides and should he stay away from the fray up top, the determination that he displayed against Heart of Honor will serve him well in Kentucky.

TIZTASTIC

Tiz the Law - Keesha (Tapit)

Steve Asmussen Joel Rosario

This is not the "obvious" Tapit boy among the probable competitors to single out, but he certainly is the most compelling. From the beginning, he was the one that proved to be the most elusive to analyze and the hardest to gauge among his cousins. This stems from the double shot of Tapit, which is unprecedented in the Kentucky Derby.

The two winning turf races from 2024 at 6.5f and 8f reveal his strong attachment to Tapit's stamina. While he did not connect with a winning trophy in his next 4 dirt races, he still progressed from the rear to the wire in each one of them. It is obvious that those race did not adhere to his dominant stamina side based on the shorter distances, giving him a disadvantage along the way.

Finally let loose at 1-3/16th, he revealed the other side of his configurations, the 4.00/6.00 indexes with the mares high input of additional speed. He was finally in his element, one that matched the way he is built.

For a Tapit horse to find success away from the 12f Belmont Stakes and to have the proper balance to compete in the 10f Kentucky Derby, he must reveal strong ties to Tapit (something that John Hancock could not do) along with extreme inbred speed to counteract all of that stamina. The LA Derby gave us the evidence that he has accepted what he has inherited and he is able to demonstrate the balancing act. His speed side is the gem that he is holding in his back pocket.