The Art of the Game - Kentucky Derby

The first Kentucky Derby, held on May 17, 1875, was won by a horse named Aristides. Ridden by jockey Oliver Lewis and trained by Ansel Williamson, Aristides finished the 1.5-mile race ahead of 14 other competitors at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

The Kentucky Derby is the longest standing sporting event in America. It is a tradition with deep seated roots in elegance, romance, dedication and endurance.

As of 2025, there have been 13 Champion thoroughbreds who took home the Triple Crown trophy. This represents only an 8.6% win rate for all 3 races. The reason is because most all thoroughbreds will be custom built for only one of those races, sometimes two, and very rarely all three.

It takes one extra special horse to have advantage at 3 separate distances, on three separate tracks, facing 3 different field sizes.

To win the Triple Crown, it would takes a certain elite quality to be able to juxtaposition his breeding across each of the three parameters. Winning the Kentucky Derby does not necessarily mean that he is automatically designed to conquer the other two.

This is why only 8.6% were able to do it out of 150 attempts with close to 3000 colts making that attempt since 1875.

This statistic translates exactly to the handicapping process for the Triple Crown. They cannot be handicapped in the same manner, obviously, because who wins the first leg aligned with that specific race. Different aspects will be highlighted for the other two.

Ignoring this concept is the biggest reason for defeat when betting on these 3 races every year. The sentimentality of witnessing a Triple Crown winner will inevitably cloud one's judgment as they move from race to race but the fact remains, each one of these races need to be handicapped completely different because a different type of colt will hit each time.

Each race has it's own parameters and the handicapping elements will have a broad change across the board. What is of most importance in one race may indeed become a disastrous element in the next.

THE KENTUCKY DERBY

For this article, we will not consume the space discussing the type of breeding that excels in the Derby, which is the # 1 factor for handicapping this race. There are numerous articles on the site that you can consult with regards to that, this article is about handicapping those elite players who have the proper breeding in the first place.

1. Once you chop the 20 horse field down from those colts who do not hit the proper distance criteria from their breeding, you can proceed. The greater amount of "speedsters" that can be disregarded based on breeding alone leaves the handicapper with a less daunting task sitting in front of him.

2. Chop the ones who may have the 10f distance but have shown no allegiance to their displayed speed.

3. From the list of colts remaining, the other outlining factors within the parameters become the second most important aspect. These factors consists of the Weather and Lead Tier runners in the gate.

   
   

(We'll leave the weather aspect aside for this particular article. While it is a serious aspect of the handicapping process, that part can only come a few days before but would still rely on the proposed aspects below with a few extra steps involved.)

The projected lead tier runners hold the key to the entire handicapping process in the Kentucky Derby. They become the main focus for this particular race. This handicapping aspect sets it apart from the other two races in the Triple Crown.

For the Kentucky Derby, the lead tier must be the main focus of your handicapping once you chop the field. This means that even if you have scratched out a speedster based on his inability to get the 10f - he still becomes one of the most important horses to handicap in spite of it. These lead tier "disregarded" speedy colts WILL EXPOSE THE FATE of those who are built correctly for the race.

The colts who have "zero chance" in the Derby are those who are not bred for 10f. They are speedsters who excelled in their short prep races, gained the points, and are now left to disrupt THE PACE. You already know that they will eventually disintegrate before the final turn, but you must discern exactly how their presence will affect those with the proper breeding.

It is the handicappers job to figure out if that affect would be either positive or negative to the remaining well-bred competitors. Unlike the other two races in the Triple Crown series, the Kentucky Derby must be handicapped with complete focus on the ones who have no chance for success in the race because they are the ones who could dictate the eventual outcome.

THE PACE vs. THE BREEDING

1. Isolate those who have gone Gate to Wire in previous races.

2. Isolate those who stalk that pace.

3. Assuming a clear sunny day and a dry race track, which ones had the highest early beyers on fast race tracks? The fastest 4f workouts on fast track surfaces? The most opportune gate assignment?

Basically, you are looking to see which colts have the greatest shot at the lead, what his early speed has been capable of, and if he has the breeding to sustain that speed the full 10f. If he does, then the other speedsters who do not have a chance in hell of traveling 10f would have ZERO affect on the lead tier.

As it pertains to this year's edition, Bob Baffert's absence at Churchill had a huge affect on that lead tier producing runaway lead speed which handed advantage to the rear. Bob Baffert's presence this year might very well bring back a return to HIS NORMAL PLAYBOOK - which is to get the lead, slow down the pace, and take it gate to wire.

The big handicapping question this year will be does Baffert get the lead and does that lead have the capability to run 10f? Which of Baffert's other colts will be stalking that lead up closer to the pace waiting to pounce?

Would Baffert allow a different 9f speedster from another barn to affect the pace while saving enough energy for his own crew?

As you can see, these questions all revert to PACE STRUCTURE. There are numerous more questions to highlight with reference to the pace that the handicapper must work on before even attempting to breakdown that PP sheet.

Common sense dictates that a colt must have raw excessive speed to compete up front (sitting in the top tier) and excessive stamina to endure the full 10f. Ideally, he would have at least 10.2f capability as those sitting up front generally compete closer to the rail.

Those who run from midpack to the rear would ideally have at least 10.4f breeding in order to have the endurance to travel around the field on the far outside.

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Let's assume that Coal Battle, Citizen Bull, John Hancock and Madaket Road all procure a starting gate and that they all make it to the lead tier unscathed.

If Citizen Bull were to gain the lead the ripple effect could be:

1. Coal Battle and Madaket Road would lose their late energy even quicker and their presence would have no affect on the rest of the field.

2. Citizen Bull would outrun John Hancock, leaving John to exert even more energy than he naturally and comfortably would want, forcing him to pick up his pace against his grain - which would have an adverse affect.

3. Based on Baffert's normal playbook, Citizen Bull slows down the pace down the backstretch, allowing him to reserve as much energy as possible to gain advantage to the wire.

If Madaket Road and/or Coal Battle were to gain the lead, the ripple effect could be:

1. John Hancock and Citizen Bull would be able to sit off. Citizen Bull does not need to exert energy, thereby giving him the ability to sustain his endurance further. On the opposite side, John Hancock would not need to tap that deeply into his speed, and would be able to roll at more even pace where his stamina becomes a huge asset.

2. Madeket Road and Coal Battle would beat the hell out of each other, giving in well shy of the final turn. This, in turn, would hand the midpack and rear runners AMPLE TIME to shift into gear in order to contest that wire.

3. Those who reserve their speed to the end have a natural shot to be in contention with those who are positioned properly.

   
   

Using the pace figures from the early calls of their past performances will aid you in pinpointing who has the elite speed and best tendency to fly forward out of that gate. Their post position will give you a better understanding on the extra advantage they may receive or the negative impact of the extra energy they will need to consume in the first 1/4 of the race.

(Example: Post 15 through 20 will have a negative effect on John Hancock. Coal Battle and Madeket Road gated in the outside posts spells complete disaster even sooner.)

Now, common sense would tell us, there has got to be at least another 20 different scenarios with that lead tier probability and who will actually dictate that pace and how fast that pace will eventually be.

When handicapping the Kentucky Derby, breeding for the 10f always takes precedence, but the PACE of the race is the number one handicapping element to distinguish. The results of the tote board rely on ALL of the speed players regardless of their ability to run the 10f. It relies on those who exhibited killer speed in their workouts at Churchill. It relies on the highest beyers in the opening calls of the previous races.

Pace Handicapping and its Ripple Effect are the single most important elements to working on the Kentucky Derby where everything else would naturally fall into place.

You will see all kinds of Timeform figures and fractional times and high beyers but if those colts who have those figures do not have the proper 10f ability they will only AFFECT the results - they will not be part of the tote board in the end.

Using those figures in the context of the "Lead Tier Ripple Effect" is the basis of handicapping this particular race.

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In reality, no one, not even the trainers or the jockeys, could possibly know who will secure the lead in the Derby. Even a stellar gate assignment does not guarantee a perfect break and an unscathed catapult to the front.

To assume the lead and the pace structure that comes from that ghost leader will often be the reason for handicapping failure.

Understand that THE PACE in this particular race is just as important, if not more, than the weather. In the Derby, it is everything. Therefore, once you have distinguished the 10f+ players and exhausted the different scenarios, your best play is to not assume only one side - stick with both sides. Take your best shot with the outcome off of a suicidal pace and your best outcome with a more manageable pace. DO BOTH!

There is no ban on multiple tickets! There is nothing at all stopping a single gambler from protecting his bet in the biggest race of the year. While most assume that they must settle on ONE main winner for whatever reason, this idea becomes a major downfall for the handicapper.

Since PACE is the main dictator to the results of this particular race, and pace structure is the biggest blind spot within any handicapping regiment (including every single solitary speed pace figures on that PP sheet) there should be no reason why one would not assume either pace structure in their betting.

On a clear fast track, on the first Saturday in May, the pace could be suicidal or it could be manageable. A speedster could grab that lead and go berserk up front, or a beast with pure stamina could dictate it at his optimum pace. No Thorograph figure will give you that answer. Not on a 20 horse field and not in a race where trainers are vying for a 5 million dollar prize.

Even the best bred beasts and most professional of the field could be slammed right out of contention casting that pace into a tailspin. You can't assume - you can only back your bet - handicap the Derby twice.

Construct TWO TICKETS that align with both Pace Structures. Bet BOTH OF THOSE TICKETS in order to have a fighting chance at collecting a payout in this particular race.

If you do not do this, the reality is that you just placed a bet with 50% of your shot at profit thrown right into the trash before the bugle even plays. It's all about the pace.

There are so many elements to handicapping the Kentucky Derby that one would need to complete an entire book first in order to give this race the respect that it requires.

Within the confines of this little article, the number one aspects to mastering this particular race is:

1. Knowing how to read exactly how a contender is built for the 10f.

2. Understanding the Players responsible for the Pace Structure.

3. The Ripple Effects of the two Pace Structures.

If you don't have that, all the rest, including Thorograph, Timeform and Beyers, wouldn't make a difference .

Not a chance when it comes to this race.