Baffert's Beefed Up Barn

From 2021 to 2024, Bob Baffert was suspended from Churchill Downs. With his obvious normal attitude as being crowned the most important Trainer in the USA, he endured three long years of humiliation and embarrassment.

I dare say, quite a long sabbatical of longing for that pedestal that the announcers always placed him upon on the first Saturday in May.

It was always Baffert's day in the spotlight and after pining away for 1100 days, you better believe that the "Strategy Man" spent that time gearing up for his 2025 redemption.

As if the script has already been written, a hazy picture begins to emerge for the conclusion of the 151st Kentucky Derby while viewing that Winner's Circle. There's Baffert with his wife and kid, photographers at hand and the announcers fawning over the disgraced trainer.

They screech:

"Baffert secures the Exacta!"

"The King has finally returned!"

"Horse racing suffered for three long years because of Churchill Downs' ban!"

"He has been vindicated!"

The inevitability of this scenario is far from a hazy reverie. Bob Baffert is not only the supreme strategist, he has a barn filled with perfectly trained pawns at the ready, who will see to it that his few "chosen" magical beasts secure that elusive Derby trophy.

Baffert is stacked any which way you read it.

He has some flying on the lead.

He has some leading up front and slowing up the pace.

He has some of them stalking and waiting to pounce.

He has some saving ground and ready to unleash.

Most likely, he will also have those who can ground cover and play defense. This will manifest in both the preps and the Derby itself.

You better believe that all them have a path set in place to secure just enough points and the inevitable victor, Mr. Bob Baffert, will have the keys to at least a few gates. Strategy is set and the Winner's Circle is only two minutes away.

The 151st Kentucky Derby is Bob Baffert's race for the taking. You can already see the cast emerging, the way his horses are running and training, the way they are bred and how they are being handled. This trainer is not only overseeing a loaded barn of highly qualified athletes, he also has some of them trained to make others shine.

He demands this victory to re-establish his prominence and dignity within the sport. It is an inevitable scenario.

1. SAN SABA

This horse will debut on Opening day at Santa Anita in a couple of days. His name has been out there for quite some time as a major player based on his stellar workouts. This time, the hype is warranted. Not just because he is flashy in his training but because his breeding and configurations align historically perfect for the Triple Crown.

DP = 2-4-10-0-0 (16) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 8-3-6-9-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.86   Triads = 17-18-22

Justify - Palace Princess (Hard Spun)

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy (2nd tier: 13.28%)

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Not only are these numbers stacked for the Derby, but they would have also been right on point with a 12f Belmont Stakes. Since it will also be a 10f contest at Saratoga, the horse is still stacked with the stamina to endure the grueling schedule.

In addition, based on his workouts and obvious lead tier speedy style, the Preakness would be a cakewalk as well.

The mares offer up 11.3f inbred capability and when combined evenly with his chefs, he sits with a very easy 10.5f optimum. He can run the 10f of the Derby and the Belmont with his eyes closed.

The fact that his sire Justify is offering up substantial stamina leanings, even to the point of Champion Turf runners, adds another dimension. With Awesome Again (in the 4th gen) assisting in that regard.

On the bottom of his chart, who do we find but Giant's Causeway. Another severe stamina influence. Just like City of Troy on turf, the high degree of outward speed attached to all of that dominate stamina is a recipe for success. The major difference is that Baffert has been relentless in pulling out San Saba's speed on the slick fast dirt at Santa Anita.

Galileo is replaced with Hard Spun and Giant's Causeway, guaranteeing a speedy beast with a fast dirt propensity, capable of dominating the lead tier on a Spring Churchill surface with stamina to burn.

Normally, with a chart and configurations such as San Saba's, a loss in a 6f debut would not be of any issue. The horse is obviously built for 9f to 11f races, however, the depiction of speed to tag along with that massive distance capability is what Champions like City of Troy is made of. Even if he does not hit his debut race on top, he is gaining the proper foundation for complete dominance later.

One must be able to see both sides of the equation and in San Saba's case, it may be already written.

San Saba is built for a distance with the ability to sustain his speed traveling as far as the track demands. Whether or not he can compete against Baffert's other speed demons traveling short has zero bearing on the 10f Derby. If the ultimate goal is Churchill Downs in May, San Saba's inheritance towers over the others.

2. BARNES

At the moment, there are a couple of prominent two year olds who were sired by Into Mischief including another in Baffert's barn who won the American Pharoah Stakes and the BC Juvenile, Citizen's Bull.

Into Mischief is ALWAYS represented on Derby Day and they are always a threat for a board hit.

(Other Into Mischief sons: Patch Adams, who is on his way and also Sovereignty, who sports points from his win in the Street Sense Stakes).

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 5.67

Mare Profile = 7-6-5-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.25   Triads = 18-18-16

St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco (2nd tier: 20.9%)

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Based on the speed capability depicted in his 5.5f debut at Santa Anita against a full field of 10 competitors, all signals are a go in terms of severe ability to capture points along the 8f to 9f Trail. Lead tier stalker with a slight two points shy in a perfect triads set-up. This is of no concern and plays directly in favor of San Saba. It also gives credence to an exacta play or at least a major player within the top four board-hitters.

THE OTHERS:

With Citizen Bull, Getaway Car, Gaming, Kalea Bay and even Mellencamp, these horses are training well to aid Baffert's beasts. You can see how they are being run, some even against the grain of how they are built, but talented enough to secure points along the way.

Baffert is setting up his long-awaited return back into the Triple Crown spotlight and his barn is ripening up to see that it happens. If he isn't careful though with his strategy, it could backfire like it did in last weeks prep, the Los Alamitos Futurity, when Journalism thwarted his crew. Tactical race-training may lead to success in the future, but you must secure those points when you need to make it happen later.