BIAS FOR BREEDING:
There is no surprise with the Bias after Friday's races. As usual, it is catering heavily to inbred speed in normal fashion.
Eight Dirt Races (Races 1 through 12)
Out of the 24 horses who hit the wire in top 3 - making up the trifecta:
Index 3.00 and over: 17 at 70%
Index 2.00 to 2.90: 2 at 8%
Index Under 2.00: 4 at 16%
In the Speed vs. Stamina battle: In perfect sync with history, inbred speed held an overwhelming advantage.
Major inbred chef speed dominated Friday's races in the Trifectas. Fourth place horse is always a crapshoot, (especially on a 20 horse field), so I always concentrate on the top three only.
Also of note, in the 3.00 and over - most were way over the 3.00 mark, regardless of distance run.
Pretty Mischievous 5.40, Gambling Girl 3.57, Secret Oath 8.60, Search Results 3.40, Munnys Gold 3.67, Art Collector 3.36, Destine to Race 7.00, Back to Gridlock 7.00, Heartyconstitution 3.00, Jump Into the Fire 7.00, Zawish 3.00, Champagne Calling 3.22, Charlies Wish 5.00, Curl Girl 3.50, Undervalued Asset 3.36, Secret Statement 3.80.
Interestingly, stamina did prevail for the win 3 times in those 8 races. Sometimes, speed burns itself out being swept too fast on the front and must settle for lesser spots on the tote board. Thats when understanding the distance limitations of those front running speedy horses comes into play.
BIAS FOR STYLE:
Out of the 24 horses to hit the trifecta: (under 10f)
Positions at the 5/8ths pole:
Lead Tier (1 thru 4): 16 at 67%
Midpack (5 thru 8): 7 at 29%
Rear: (9 and under) 1 at 4%
Important to note: This factor is not apples for apples based on distances being under 10f, but it does show that displayed speed is holding with the inbred speed horses on the track. They are also coming from mid-pack as well.
Based on the bias and the breeding and their style, those 6 horses are holding a bit of extra advantage over their foes before walking into the gate. It certainly doesn't mean any one of them is lock, it just means that things are tilted a bit more in their favor for the track that they are competing on in conjunction with their breeding and style.
In other words, a horse like Two Phil's or Kingsbarns may overtake the advantage because of style, but the breeding they hold on that bias makes their race a bit tougher on them because they are stamina horses. The bias is in contrast to their breeding. They would still be sitting in the 67% advantaged bracket based on style alone. They just don't have the breeding part on their side with regards to track surface.
Every race boils down to Speed vs. Stamina. The bias of the Churchill track this weekend gives the inbred speed side a greater helping hand. It also hands a few extra brownie points to those closer to the front at the 5/8ths pole at the 10f distance.
Remember, there are 116,280 superfecta combinations. With at least 12 competitive horses with a shot at the top 4 spots, we're all going to need a huge helping of luck with this go-around.
If speed is swept too fast on the bias (as happened on Friday a couple of times) then stamina will prevail. That's where I believe that either Kingsbarns or Two Phil's hold the best advantage if that would come to pass. Two separate pace tickets, so to speak.
My plan was to spread Kingsbarns or Two Phil's top to bottom for 2nd pace scenario. Haven't made up my mind on that yet. We'll see if I want to go that high with two on top. Not sure yet because of the "slight fever" reports with Kingsbarns. Still love Two Phil's and leaning highly in his direction. We'll see, but this is the reason for the 4 way mini supers this year. But my top pick stays the same - Angel of Empire.
***WITH THE SCRATCH OF FORTE -
TICKETS WILL BE TOTALLY REVAMPED AND UPDATED***
It is now cost-effective to consider both pace scenarios on 1 ticket.
NEW TICKET WITH FORTE SCRATCHED:
I could be debating the pros and cons between Two Phil's and Kingsbarns til next week so I'm ending it. For the second pace scenario, there are pro's and cons with both, so Im using them both while keeping the ticket basically the same cost. I want to have a shot at some odds with this race, so I'm going to shoot for it.
Superfecta - $240.00
1st - Angel - Two Phil's - Kingsbarns
2nd - Angel - Two Phil's - Kingsbarns - Tapit Trice
3rd - Angel - Two Phil's - Kingsbarns - Tapit Trice - Rocket Can - Reincarnate
4th - Two Phil's - Kingsbarns - Tapit Trice - Rocket Can - Reincarnate - Confidence Game - Mandarin - Derma - Verifying
Also, because I have a dismal record of missing the superfecta by one constantly and on the advice of a very good friend, I will do several 4-way boxed trifectas just to cover myself this year.
Four horse boxed Trifectas are $24.00 for a 1.00 ticket and $12.00 for a 50 cent ticket. I'll throw together 5 or 6 of those and thats it.
Good luck everyone. Enjoy Derby 149! Let's get to the Belmont already!
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