There was a lot of speculation as to what happened to Classic Causeway in the Florida Derby. Many questioned his well-being and wondered if something catastrophic happened. Some questioned the quality of the horse based on the high caliber contenders that he was up against. Some questioned the quick turn around and wondered if the horse needed more time in between races.
It was none of that. It was the Gulfstream track bias.
It was none of that. It was the Gulfstream bias.
Tiz the Bomb posted two consecutive wins at Turfway Park but came in 7th place in the Holy Bull stakes. I have actually read somewhere that said the race should be a toss because he was alittle wide.
It certainly was not that. It was the Gulfstream bias.
Every horse is built differently based on what he inherited through the mating of his sire and his mare. There are 30 contributors to the single horse in the first 4 generations in his chart. Within those 30, only those listed as chefs and those listed as reines will make their presence known. These are the contributors that shape the colt into the individual that he is.
The adjectives we use to describe these colts – speed, average, stamina – does not simply pertain to distance capability. It does not simply pertain to style of running. It doesn’t simply point out a dirt runner or turf runner. These contributors will also determine the most advantageous bias for the colt. In other words, their breeding will also tell you which track the horse will thrive at. Once they hit the optimum track coupled with the optimum distance, they will explode.
Classic Causeway is stamina dominant from his chefs. His reines (specific elite mares) have passed down dominance in the Solid (13,14,15f) slot. His configurations aligned with the bias of the Tampa Bay track. In addition, the bulk of his contenders in both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Sam F. Davis were bred with much more speed, which is counter to that bias at that track and handed Classic Causeway a much greater advantage than he could have ever asked for. Not to mention, half of both of those fields had no business being in those races in the first place.
Classic Causeway left his breezing ways back at Turfway Park. The bias of Gulfstream was not conducive to his breeding and therefore, he gave in. Even though CC has never performed on a sloppy track, you better believe that he will retreat even quicker on a muddy bias. His breeding states it and the evidence points directly to it. The Churchill track should be a bit better suited for him, however, if that track is overly souped up like it was last year, he is toast.
Simplification is a completely different animal. His breeding depicts a stamina driven colt, but when his reines are added, the horse becomes completely and evenly balanced on both sides of the spectrum. He is not lopsided or dominant on either side. This is why the horse can run from anywhere on the track. This is the reason why he has been consistent all the way through. His wins are huge and his defeats are minor. Interestingly enough, the way this horse is bred, the Gulfstream track is definitely not the most perfect track for him and yet, all 7 career races have come from here and all of his races have been commendable, if not explosive.
This is the reason why Simplification may be a complete monster at Churchill Downs. He has the type of breeding that attaches itself to all types of tracks, but out of all the possible tracks his type of breeding should find itself on, Gulfstream may in fact be the least cooperative for him. He is still stamina dominant – he is still a 1.22 horse. There is an extremely high probability that this horse will explode at Churchill Downs while traveling a distance that is much closer to his optimum. His 3rd place up with the speed at that track, at that distance, was magnificent.
Speed colts win at Gulfstream Park at 9f. White Abarrio is the easy one because he is a 3.80 colt. He had the advantage from the beginning. He has Into Mischief speed. Sometimes things are just so easy to figure out. Moving onto the bias of Churchill at 10f, he will carry that speed and he will show-off his Tapit stamina and that’s it. Whether the track is playing fair or if it’s overly souped up, it won’t matter. His breeding has him covered both ways for the bias.
Let’s focus on Charge It.
Charge It is a 3.00 Tapit boy. They have a hard time in the Derby because that stamina is overly dominant. They thrive in the Belmont. A Tapit son with an index of 3.00 and under must display killer speed in past performances in order to determine if his speed side is up to par for the 10f task at Churchill. To gauge whether or not Tapit is acting completely over-bearing with the stamina in his colt, a sloppy track performance is the ideal scenario. That would be a huge tell about the probability of that Tapit stamina overtaking the speed or not. We had that pleasure with Essential Quality. With Charge It, at least we were afforded the opportunity to witness that speed potential with a speedy bias like Gulfstream. But most importantly, the mares numbers in his configurations are “over the top” dominant in speed. Perfect for the Gulfstream track. Since he displayed it and we know he has the 10f distance, he becomes a prominent Derby player.
Moving on to Tiz the Bomb.
Tiz the Bomb has a 1.86 stamina index. He likes the AWS. He likes the turf as well. His PP's provide easy evidence. He hated the speedy surface of Gulfstream Park back in February. He could not perform at 5f on dirt in his maiden at Churchill Downs but he had no problem breaking that maiden at 8f at Ellis Park. This is because he is stamina dominant, and his breeding is adverse to speedy biases. His performances stand out on the Turf and the AWS.
Unlike the monster Animal Kingdom, whose performances prior to the Kentucky Derby were only on the AWS and turf, we had no opportunity to see how he would react on dirt prior to the big day. The only glimpse into any evidence was with his workout at Churchill Downs on the dirt. He ran a 1:13 even - breezing 6f. A bonafide stamina horse who performs consistently on the AWS and turf does not breeze 1:13 on dirt. The evidence that Animal Kingdom was ready to explode on a surface that he was bred for was revealed in less than 1-1/2 minutes, 6 days before the Kentucky Derby. In Tiz the Bomb's case, we have seen 2 full blown performances on dirt, and he lost them both, decisively, by a combined 25 lengths.
But the problem with this horse is that his mares 10-5-2-6-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.35 Triads = 17-13-14, are giving major speed and he didn’t take hold of it when he could have. This means that his chefs are taking over in a huge way. He bombed at Gulfstream. He bombed at Churchill Downs. This is one of the reasons why I keep going back and forth with this particular guy. He has the inbred speed capacity from his mares but on the certain tracks where he would display it, he is not. He is favoring one bias over the over. He is favoring his chefs. Enormously. The 67% linebreeding to St. Simon is magnificent and highly advantaged but his bias preference is not. If the Churchill bias is fair, he could realistically grab a very minor piece because his stamina will be an asset against those who do not have the 10f capability. He hits by default. If the track is heavily speedy that day, which it usually is on Derby day, Tiz the Bomb has no chance at all. In addition, he will absolutely have nothing on a sloppy track. I do not like this horse one bit for the Kentucky Derby, not from day one, but the linebreeding is going to keep him around for the time being.
Next, Morello.
Morello looks to be in one of the best positions. With his chart, his preferred track bias would actually be quite the opposite of Aqueduct based on his breeding. The undefeated speedy 3.80 colt is showing off quite a bit of grit to get the job done on that bias. He has one more to go, the Wood Memorial, and even if this horse does not capture the win in this final prep, do not be discouraged. He has been running successfully, against his breeding up to this point and this horse will explode on the track at Churchill Downs. I have every faith that the skill and talent that he has shown on that adverse track at Aqueduct will see him in the winners circle again this weekend because this horse is loaded. Again, if he doesn’t, suffice it to say that when he shows up at Churchill, he will fly on that track, regardless of whether or not it is playing fair, extra speedy or even sloppy. His breeding puts him at a better advantage in Kentucky than at Aqueduct.
Aligning the breeding with all aspects of the performances will tell you exactly how the horse wants to run, how far he wants to run, and even WHERE he wants to run. How they perform on an adverse track is one thing, but when they conquer it against their breeding, this will always point out a beast who will explode once everything falls into place. The importance of the bias and how it relates to each entry of a particular race is so under-rated but it is invaluable when agonizing over a PP sheet. Most put all their handicapping emphasis on a previous beyer or timeform figure, but even if the horse ran a 110 beyer on a track that was perfect for his breeding, he will go backwards if the bias is against him for his next race. Sometimes this is confused as a “bounce” – it is not – it is the bias or the track surface that the horse was reluctant to run on. The breeding of the horse coupled with the particulars of the track, will always yield spectacular dividends. Always remember, what wins on one track may not win at another if the biases are not in sync with his breeding.
When the horse is producing commendable performances on an adverse track, below his preferred distance, he will in turn become a major player when everything aligns. When a horse is performing extremely well along the trail, producing high beyers at 9f and under on a track bias that is counter to Churchill, he becomes a toss. The only way to know this information about any specific horse, is if you consult his breeding, his chart, his numbers. Everything works hand in hand.
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