The following star ratings - 1 star through 5 stars - are based on the colt's ability to go the distance OVER the 10f mark coupled with evidence of competitive raw speed attached to it. In addition, consideration is also given for the colt's display of determination and will to win. Lastly, high regard is further given to how the horse's configurations align historically within the 10f Kentucky Derby held at Churchill on the first Saturday in May.
Of course, weather considerations can not be foretold for that day. Some of the 5 star rated colts will not have the same on the 3 different potential surfaces.
A clear fast day and the ratings coordinate.
A slick wet surface will be advantageous even further for some - similar to Always Dreaming's Derby.
A deep and yielding muddy track would favor others - similar to Orb's Derby.
Unfortunately, this year is filled to the brim with early potential contenders who were sired by Into Mischief, Authentic, Game Winner, and Tapit Offspring - all of which are passing along beautiful hefty scales and balances which coincide historically. Since the numbers never lie, we can not dismiss any of them at this point. Where we normally have 4 or 5 tremendous early stand-outs at this juncture, this year, it is quite different at this stage of the game.
As the field finally tampers down to 20 contenders, we can only hope that the representation of these particular sires evens out a bit. Equally, we can only hope that the highly competitive early speedier colts like East Avenue, River Thames, Speed King, Coal Battle, etc. rack up points in these 8f to 9f Prep races and they eventually take up some room in those gates. The greater amount of these speed demons who are not built for 10f+, the better for us in the long run.
Even greater importance as we move into March will be the Japanese contenders who will inevitably be extremely conditioned for this year's edition and are not represented on the Future's Pool.
As with any Futures Bet regardless of which Pool you dive into, the single most important aspect is that they display wicked speed with a chart that gives them OVER 10f in distance. The colt must secure a gate utilizing his speed in the shorter Prep races to gain points, but he must have 10f+ to be a winning contender on Derby Day.
It is a fine line between the two components, this is why the configurations must depict hefty speed to compete shorter prior to May and hefty stamina to compete longer on the big day. Evidence of that speed capability may not result in short early wins so the importance of DISPLAYED speed and a strong determination when he does compete takes a greater importance, regardless of where he ends up on that tote board in the shorter preps.
Quick flashy 8f to 9f Prep wins does not always mean that the horse is built to sustain that energy travelling over 10f with a 20 horse gate. The answer always reveals itself within his inheritance and if his early speed can withstand the extra furlongs. It all boils down to common sense.
I'll add in the configurations for each colt tomorrow.
POOL FOUR - February 14th to February 16th.
#1 BARNES (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief, 8-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +
#2 BUILT (Wayne Catalano, Hard Spun, 30-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#3 BURNHAM SQUARE (Ian Wilkes, Liam's Map, 20-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥
#4 CAPTAIN COOK (Rick Dutrow Jr., Practical Joke, 20-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
#5 CHANCER McPATRICK (Chad Brown, McKinzie, 25-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥
#6 CITIZEN BULL (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief, 6-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#7 COAL BATTLE (Lonnie Briley, Coal Front, 40-1) Star Rating: ♥
#8 CYCLONE STATE (Chad Summers, McKinzie, 50-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#9 DISCO TIME (Brad Cox, Not This Time, 25-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#10 EAST AVENUE (Brendan Walsh, Medaglia d'Oro, 15-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥
#11 FEROCIOUS (Gustavo Delgado, Flatter, 50-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
#12 FIRST RESORT (Eoin Harty, Uncle Mo, 40-1) Star Rating: ♥
#13 GAMING (Bob Baffert, Game Winner, 40-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
#14 GATE TO WIRE (Todd Pletcher, Munnings, 30-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
#15 GETAWAY CAR (Bob Baffert, Curlin, 80-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#16 GRANDE (Todd Pletcher, Curlin, 30-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥
#17 HYPNUS (Kenny McPeek, Into Mischief, 80-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#18 INNOVATOR (D. Wayne Lukas, Authentic, 50-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#19 JOHN HANCOCK (Brad Cox, Constitution, 25-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +++
#20 JONATHAN'S WAY (Phil Bauer, Vekoma, 50-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
#21 JOURNALISM (Michael McCarthy, Curlin, 20-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥
#22 KEEP IT EASY (Dale Romans, Hard Spun, 50-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#23 LEGITIMATE (Michael McCarthy, Authentic, 80-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#24 PATCH ADAMS (Brad Cox, Into Mischief, 30-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ + +
#25 POSTER (Eoin Harty, Munnings, 40-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#26 PRAETOR (Chad Brown, Into Mischief, 50-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#27 RAPTURE (Brad Cox, Uncle Mo, 50-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥
#28 RIVER THAMES (Todd Pletcher, Maclean's Music, 25-1) Star Rating: ♥
#29 RODRIGUEZ (Bob Baffert, Authentic, 20-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#30 SAN SABA (Bob Baffert, Justify, 40-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#31 SAND DEVIL (Linda Rice, Violence, 40-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
#32 SANDMAN (Mark Casse, Tapit, 40-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#33 SORCERER'S SILVER (Dale Romans, Good Magic, 80-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ++
#34 SOVEREIGNTY (Bill Mott, Into Mischief, 20-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#35 SPEED KING (Ron Moquett, Volatile, 30-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥
#36 TAPPAN STREET (Brad Cox, Into Mischief, 40-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
#37 TIP TOP THOMAS (Todd Pletcher, Volatile, 50-1) Star Rating: ♥
#38 TIZTASTIC (Steve Asmussen, Tiz the Law, 80-1) Star Rating: ????
#39 VASSIMO (Todd Pletcher, Nyquist, 50-1) Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
San saba still setting at 99/1 definitely for me a play for the derby. That's the odds I like this far out. I also believe if he can make it to derby he has a good shot of winning. I think he has been forgotten so far in pool 4.
My reservation regarding Getaway Car is the fact he is stabled in the Baffert barn. Baffert's training process does not favor Getaway Car at all. He may in fact be the best of the five heart rated runners and never be allowed the chance to prove his natural ability. So wish a more patient and skilled trainer was charged with his development.
When I cross your 5-star horses with what I like, I get three horses, Built, Getaway Car and Praetor. When I cross your 4-star horses with what I like, I come up with, Citizen Bull, Disco Time, Legitimate and Poster. If zeroing in on Baffert, I'm led to Citizen Bull and Getaway Car. Outside of Baffert, Built and Disco Time are the leaders so far on performance and the others will have to prove themselves.
What happened to Varney? I have watched replay many times. Then slowed it down frame by frame and still did not see anything. To me it looks like he took kick back from the 4 and he was tight on rail when the 5 came up on him and that's all he wanted he spooked. Horse is very green. His first race he was turning head in middle of race till jockey got him back on target. It will be very interesting on what baffert does with him now, if in fact he was trying to get him in derby....what happened to him today is nothing he will face in the derby. The horse to me is still to gree…
VARNEY (by Vekoma) Victory on Valentines Day! Race 6 at Santa Anita today. Should be joining the Derby trail. How many Valentine Hearts for him?