Down the Stretch with Dornoch
12. FOREVER YOUNG (JPN)
DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 7-3-6-6-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-15-19
This is more of an honorable mention at this point based on two reasons. First, he is the undefeated grandson of Deep Impact and that could foretell great potential. The second, he has been extremely green in each of his wins, including the Saudi Derby, but he still manages to win with extreme will and determination. From this standpoint, I am beginning to wonder what type of beast this guy will eventually turn out to be once he actually learns his profession and matures. Although I am not enamored with his configurations for the Kentucky Derby, there is something to be said about how this horse is winning against his development so far. He is one to track as he continues to mature along the way. UAE Derby is massive.
11. LIBERAL ARTS
DP = 2-12-2-0-0 (16) DI = 15.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 4-5-5-9-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.69 Triads = 14-19-20
Son of Arrogate with a very large 15.00 index and who runs from the rear is still very intriguing, especially with such a serious mare profile. Six points to the good in stamina. These configurations depict massive speed from the chefs balanced with massive stamina from the mares. The very ingredients that are at a great advantage in the Kentucky Derby. Based on his performance coming from the clouds to strike a 3rd place in the 8.5f Southwest Stakes, it should only get better for him as he sets his sights on a longer track to work with. He can't be counted out yet. He is definitely running to his configurations, both in his rear running style (stamina from mares) and great late speed (from his chefs).
10. RESILIANCE
DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 2-12-4-13-2 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.95 Triads = 18-29-19
Cannot bypass these numbers yet. He should have passed Track Phantom in the Risen Star but he gets one pass based on the sloppy surface which could have contributed to the maiden winner losing steam with his lead partner. He has one more shot to perform on a clean track.
9. TUSCAN SKY
DP = 1-6-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.57 Mare Profile = 7-1-4-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.73 Triads = 12-11-18
Everything on both lines is perfect with the exception of the layout in the triads. I won't hold that against a lead running son of Vino Rosso though. This guy is stacked in stamina, and in spite of it, is surprisingly undefeated so far way below his optimum. There is something very special about this horse and hopefully he gets to strut his stuff in a Derby Prep soon. Sneaky good potential here to disrupt even the most well-intentioned Derby Dozen List. If he continues along his trajectory, look out Dornoch. There's a new kid in town.
8. HONOR MARIE
DP = 9-11-15-1-0 (36) DI = 3.24 CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 4-3-6-4-9 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-13-19
He has the ingredients for 10f in spades. Difficulty with securing a gate with 9f preps on the horizon. Could be a well-rested player at Saratoga for the Belmont but we'll keep him around until the bitter end.
7. CATCHING FREEDOM
DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 0.90 Mare Profile = 5-5-7-6-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-18-18
Second generation Tapit offspring with a 5.67 index will hold advantage for a board hit in the Derby. Needs to start securing a faster late speed pace and rely on that 5.67 even more as he proceeds to his next battle. He is here for the "Board Hit" category and not necessarily for the "Win Category."
6. RAMJET (JPN)
DP = 5-11-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.75 Mare Profile = 7-3-2-7-10 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.66 Triads = 12-12-19
This colt is as fast as lightening and with that 7 point spread sitting in the mare's scale, the sky may be the limit for this guy. Incredible speed depicted in his prep race. This guy will be a big player for Japan in the the coming year.
5. SIERRA LEONE
DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 5-3-5-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-14-19
I always like to have a 2.00 category guy on standby and who better fits the bill so far than Sierra Leone. Early bloomer coming from the Candy Ride line who actually does have 10f under his belt, however, he leans on his speed at a higher clip. This keeps him below the win category at the moment and could upgrade once he secures a faster win on a clean surface.
4. SPEAK EASY
DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 0.90 Mare Profile = 4-9-5-7-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.22 Triads = 18-21-15
Unlike his kin, Catching Freedom, we have all the proof already that his speed stays intact and as hefty as can be coming from the Tapit Line. Tapit's do not fare well in the Derby, but we have not seen one with this much outward speed in a maiden yet. Extreme potential to buck history.
3. FIERCENESS
DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 17-20-19
Enormous performance in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile at two years old revealed his magnificent capability and talent. His set-up with these configurations and his outward speed, align with the Kentucky Derby perfectly. More gate-training and an unimpeded break in his next should put a stamp on his dominance among this crop.
2. TIMBERLAKE
DP = 2-2-6-4-0 (14) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.14 Mare Profile = 7-8-4-7-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 19-19-19
This 4-star colt from his Champagne stakes win had one item to overcome to pick up that 5th star. He had to perform against class without being pace dependent. He not only passed that hurdle in the Rebel Stakes, but he smoked that crew as if they weren't even there. With his configurations coupled with 45.7% line-breeding directly to St. Simon, Timberlake has every point covered for the Kentucky Derby coming from the Stamina category. There is always at least one, and he is sitting right here.
1. DORNOCH
DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 Mare Profile = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19
It is extremely rare that I would ever put a 2.50 colt as the top choice on a Derby List, especially in February. When it comes to the Mid-range category, a horse must exhibit stand-out and "over the top" qualities as he moves along the road. Dornoch's lead running style, his speed, his determination, and his stamina capability, is concrete proof that he is one very special animal. The fact that he is the son of Good Magic and with Big Brown in his 2nd generation shows that he is running way past his numbers this early in the game. This should only grow in his dominant feature as he is let loose on longer track. He is already showing that he has stepped into that "Two Phil's league" as opposed to Track Phantom who couldn't cut it while sitting in this category.
I would go so far as to say that now we need to see Dornoch progress into that "Animal Kingdom" or "I'll Have Another" league and then we should be good to go. This is a very high caliber horse who is showing extreme talent way below his optimum and on track surfaces that defy logic.
Dornoch does not need to go undefeated to remain a player in this top spot, obviously, but it sure would be nice! At this point, if one of Justify's sons comes out of the woodwork and is running like City of Troy on dirt, well, all bets are off then.
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