Prior to both Rich Strike (2022) and Mage (2023) winning the Derby from the rear after an unrealistic and unsustainable pace, there was a perfect reoccurring top order of finish for the superfecta.
I want to believe that we can get back to historical order, however, I can make no assumptions after two consecutive years of a burn-out lead tier pace.
If Japan's Summer is Tomorrow set a precedent with his wicked suicidal pace in 2022 and trainers grabbed a hold of that vulnerability, there is a strong chance that we may never have a perfect history to consult ever again. We can get burned once, maybe twice, but not three times in a row. The rabbit-factor is a strategy for grabbing that big purse.
For this reason, the gambler should consider taking two approaches with his wager.
The first list holds true to TIME-TESTED & HISTORICALLY PERFECT CONFIGURATIONS.
Built for the race, assuming they get an unimpeded trip.
The second list depicts a switch to a more stamina driven and/or balanced scale. These guys become the advantaged who tend to reserve their energy, with an inbred scale that is not weighted on the speed side. They would capitalize off of a faster and more intense pace because of the inevitable tumble and retreat from the more speed-driven colts, handing the advantage over to their side yet again.
(I may be switching things around from time to time!)
NORMAL FAST PACE:
The following list is based strictly on breeding and history and will most likely get reworked once we get the past performance sheets. It is also based on a clean track. Should the weather (article link) become an issue, this whole thing gets tossed.
8. SIERRA LEONE
DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 Mares = 5-3-5-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-14-19
Against popular thinking and based strictly on perfect historical records, with a normal fast pace, this colt has two strikes. One, he will not get a faltering lead tier to run into. Two, no matter how good he has run up to the 9f mark, his configurations are not aligned with the Derby - under normal conditions. His talent would absolutely still keep him here though because he is a class horse and built like a tank to plow through those retreating in front of him.
7. DORNOCH
DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 Mares = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19
Midrange colt with very nice triads who showed serious promise but other things now come into play. Lack of displayed speed on conducive bias in last race. Basically, back to running like a 2.50 horse. Historically, with a fast normal pace, these are not advantaged Derby numbers. He is much better suited for 10f and appeared to be running past his configurations but he soured where he should have excelled in his last prep. Unless of course, he was held back purposefully because he already had enough points and the connections may have given him a very soft "conditioning" ride. Always the possibility and perhaps it backfired by being a bit too aggressively soft. That performance was highly out of character.
6. T O PASSWORD (JPN)
DP = 2-0-6-2-0 (10) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.20 Mares = 6-5-5-12-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-22-21
Never underestimate the power of these configurations for a normally run Kentucky Derby. He will sit at the very bottom of the speed/stamina spectrum on the field and the track record for a board hit is substantial. Most will opt for Forever Young if considering Japan and that horse will still remain in the background for top player consideration, however, T O Password is holding the proper build and configurations over Forever Young and that is what this list is based on first.
5. JUST A TOUCH
DP = 3-6-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.75 Mares = 12-2-3-5-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.21 Triads = 17-10-16 (2nd gen Tapit)
Under normal pace conditions, a Tapit boy with an index over 3.20 finds favor in the Derby as board hit material. We have two of them this year.
4. HONOR MARIE
DP = 9-11-15-1-0 (36) DI = 3.24 CD = 0.78 Mares = 4-3-6-4-9 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-13-19
For the Derby, the 36 points (article link) in his profile gives him a slight edge with history against the poor triads. In the same realm as Sierra Leone but with a tad bit of extra help in the breeding department. Based on his breeding, advantage will go even higher in the rain. Working out like a champ, showing off all of that loaded speed in his chefs brilliant and intermediate slots. 10f is his perfect spot. Major from the beginning.
3. RESILIENCE
DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50 CD = 0.83 Mares = 2-12-4-13-2 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.95 Triads = 18-29-19
Along with Just a Touch, Resilience also has a strong chance for this spot, as I see them both as fairly even at the moment with their credentials, standing in class, and scale balance. Killer Configurations.
2. CATCHING FREEDOM
DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 0.90 Mares = 5-5-7-6-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-18-18 (2nd gen Tapit)
Second generation Tapit like Just a Touch but on a much higher scale. The 5.67 index stands out like a sore thumb. That depicts 5.6x the inherited speed over stamina. Backed with major Tapit endurance, evidence of utilizing that chart successfully, style of running, and conducive to both pace structures. Could be Tapit's time to shine in a different Triple Crown race this year.
1. FIERCENESS
DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.83 Mares = 5-6-6-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 17-20-19
As it relates to history, every single point of perfection for this race under normal pace conditions on a clean fast track is sitting directly in Pletcher's barn. This horse can go gate to wire at 10f without breaking a sweat. Inheritance is packed with configurations that are completely in line with the past. Major Speed + Major Stamina = Derby Monster
SUICIDAL PACE:
The following list follows suit from 2022 and 2023 with a crazy pace structure along with breeding on a clean fast track. This, most likely, will be reworked once the PPs come out.
8. T O PASSWORD (JPN)
DP = 2-0-6-2-0 (10) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.20 Mares = 6-5-5-12-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-22-21
Even though he has killer Derby configurations, when things flip with a suicidal pace, he loses the historical advantage in favor of the proper USA players.
TIED WITH: FOREVER YOUNG
DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83 Mares = 7-3-6-6-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-15-19
I don't like this colt's configurations for the Derby at all, but I am not ready to make a call on him yet. The Deep Impact aspect in his chart with an extreme lead tier pace could suit his style well, so we'll keep the two attached for now.
7. JUST A TOUCH
DP = 3-6-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.75 Mares = 12-2-3-5-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.21 Triads = 17-10-16 (2nd gen Tapit)
He is built well for both sides of the pace structure, however, his style of running puts him in a precarious situation with an extreme pace. Class also works against him as a speedier lead tier contender. Resilience in the same boat as well.
6. ENDLESSLY
DP = 5-4-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.72 Mares = 7-7-4-7-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 18-18-18
He should capitalize a bit more with additional speed guys falling by the wayside. Monitoring closely at Churchill. Very talented horse with a very even balance. In conjunction with Endlessly, Mystik Dan also has a shot at this spot on the list, especially if it is raining on May 4th. There are pros and cons for both of those guys.
5. DORNOCH
DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 Mares = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19
More forwardly placed than the others built in this manner (without excessive inbred speed) would be highly complimentary to a lead tier meltdown. Mares are correct, even and balanced endurance with a better position in his style. (This is the same reason why Endlessly could move up and eventually snag this spot.)
4. FIERCENESS
DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.83 Mares = 5-6-6-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 17-20-19
Assuming he breaks well, his high endurance factor could quite possibly allow him to still hang within the lead tier for the full 10f for at least a minor board hit. With faster early fractions, he would be sitting off the suicidal pace-maker, running his race, but his energy would probably take a hit by the top of the stretch. He'd still remain throughout on the super though, it is just that his advantage travels south based on his normal winning style.
3. SIERRA LEONE
DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 Mares = 5-3-5-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-14-19
Ditto with Honor Marie.
2. HONOR MARIE
DP = 9-11-15-1-0 (36) DI = 3.24 CD = 0.78 Mares = 4-3-6-4-9 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-13-19
Both Honor Marie and Sierra Leone have poor triads and I see them as interchangeable for the 10f. Honor Marie does have the favorable 36 total profile points but Sierra Leone has the past performances. Therefore, with a very intense pace that could wipe out the lead tier, both would be situated properly and used in the same manner. Loving this guy.
1. CATCHING FREEDOM
DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 0.90 Mares = 5-5-7-6-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-18-18 (2nd gen Tapit)
A Tapit boy has never won the Derby because of the excess in stamina. His style of running would be conducive to both pace structures and because all of that endurance is backed up with a 5.67 index, his inbred speed outshines the rest with this type of build. He has both sides covered and could be the one to break that Tapit curse should the pace take out the lead tier.
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