It's been a great season and the Road to get here has been fantastic at the Dirty Horse Club. Looking back and re-reading the two Derby Prep analysis articles, I am very satisfied and proud with how the numbers coincided with the final field of this year's Derby. It is easy to talk pedigree AFTER the fact as most will at other sites. But not here. We had it every step of the way.
Dr. Roman's numbers combined with the elite mares gave all of us a running start from the very beginning. I am very proud of the track record this year. Only one colt on this year's final field appears "off" to me - Zandon. As usual, the numbers did hold for 80% to 90% just as it does each year. That is one hell of a track record if I do say so myself.
For 2022, I do feel the numbers were on a much greater and precise level from the very beginning. It could have been the absence of Baffert, or it could just be that the signs have been perfected to a greater extent. Whatever it was, I am quite pleased with the accuracy they presented from as far back as Prep #1 all the way and through to the last. Those "star" ratings and numbers were close to SPOT ON this year and that is why I do what I do.
I hope that everyone is satisfied with having a few live Futures tickets tucked away this year. The combinations of the numbers are magical, and they never lie. With that said, I can only continue to consult them to the bitter end and point out the best of the best based on history. Not every one of these colts will find an easy ride. That is the nature of a 20-horse field stampeding out of the gate. The best do not always find a clear path in this race. Please keep this in mind as you configure your final tickets.
MO DONEGAL - His race on the Gulfstream bias in the Holy Bull will be more closely aligned with the Derby than his last spectacular performance at Aqueduct. Speed will not falter quite as easily, and his work will be even harder to overcome than it was at Gulfstream. He is not a horse for the course in this race. His mares numbers are sub-par as well. If the track is playing even half of what it did last year, he will perform just like Bourbonic with a very heavy disadvantage. Eventual bias on Saturday tells his fate and that will only come to fruition in the undercard results. Pay attention to the bias.
HAPPY JACK - The bias will most likely match Santa Anita's speedway and that is counter to his breeding which is why he suffered on that track. He will, however, perform much better (with a clean run) than he has to date because of the added distance that his breeding requires. He is incredibly bred for the Belmont Stakes and if he pulls a "Country House" here I won't be upset. I am fully aware of the consequences and will opt to pass on a colt who has this distance blindfolded. He is bred extremely well for the Belmont, just like Country House was. Let the cards fall as they may.
EPICENTER - The combination of killer displayed speed along with massive endurance capability is exactly the recipe that works in this particular race. With an unimpeded break, Epicenter's only barrier is the category that he sits in. The stamina category has not found success as the victor since Animal Kingdom. That is unfortunately the recent history of this race. If he defies that history, he wins this race. This horse is a superstar. Top Spots. It is either him or Messier.
SUMMER IS TOMORROW - His outward stamina in the UAE Derby was remarkable for a colt bred like this. The fact remains though, his numbers and balance are backwards for the Churchill race historically. Hoping that he performs exactly like Forbidden Kingdom would have done out on the lead. If somehow that hidden stamina from the UAE appears on Saturday, we could have the upset of the century. Stranger things have happened in this massive race!
SMILE HAPPY - His configurations are not advantaged for the Derby. He is a very talented horse and his double shot of Ribot and Flower Bowl is hard to overlook in spite of those configurations. Depending on final cost of the super ticket will determine if he makes an appearance in the end. My brain is saying toss, but my gut is telling me to stick with the "Ribot Phenomenon" and his very favorable post.
MESSIER - The perfect loaded Derby configurations that historically win or hit the board decade after decade. He has the highest advantage on this field with his set-up. A smooth fire out of the gate and he continues on. An absolute must on every super ticket, especially on top. His numbers win or hit the board consistently. His profile is about as close to a superfecta lock as you can get.
CROWN PRIDE - His number combinations are not typically advantaged in the Derby. Overseas colts average 8th in this race due to hyper stamina that wins the UAE Derby, against what wins at Churchill. His apparent balance though is superb based on his late charge in Tokyo on a wet surface. As usual, I will continue to back the overseas determined effort for success in this race. His post is great, his handling has been magnificent and he appears a subtle beast. He will grace my tickets because with my luck, the first year I take a stand against an overseas runner and the horse performs completely up to par. Superstition at its finest.
CHARGE IT - This is a very talented horse and his post is great. The 3.00 Tapit configuration is still cursed though for this particular race and his inexperience doesn't help. There is something about both his "displayed" class and his inherited excessive mare speed that stands out here though. Maybe it is too soon in his career for such a massive undertaking but so hard to overlook the talent potential. I'm sticking with him.
TIZ THE BOMB - Taking a stand against the extraordinary 68% linebreeding to St. Simon and putting more emphasis on the track bias. He will not be on my tickets. If St. Simon whacks me on the side of the head when that Tote Board lights up, then I will add one more "Derby Rule" to the list and be happy that I learned yet another lesson for next year.
ZANDON - Do not hold anything against me for this. Zandon is still the only colt on this field that remains a complete puzzle in terms of his poor configurations vs. his widespread appeal. I still cannot find a voice with this guy and will continue to the bitter end with trying to figure out where he falls here. Appears you may be on your own with this guy as the jury is still out in the breakroom drinking coffee and debating it all. An entire notebook filled with debates!
PIONEER OF MEDINA - Excellent post with excellent configurations and finally on a much more suitable track for his breeding. He was hard trained against the bias which affected his pace figures along the way. This is the type that will explode now that everything is aligning with a successful break and unimpeded first 5 seconds out of the gate. His speed/stamina balance is fantastic and Todd trained him perfectly to pull every bit out of him for this race. There is no chance of leaving him off of my tickets and will hope that the immature one below him here does not break inward.
TAIBA - I absolutely detest this but I will be spreading Baffert's clone across the board, paying quite a premium on a horse that is finding speed that is not in his breeding. That is a sure sign that Baffert's slimy greasy hands have a great shot at hitting the exacta. It makes me sick that we have to pay this ridiculous compensation at the windows. Baffert is NOT banned from Churchill. His stench will be all over that track tomorrow.
SIMPLIFICATION - Even though I know his endurance needs to be chopped from the 10.7f and that he is tilted further to the speed side, my superstition has gotten the better of me. I will still use this guy on my super, however, I will not rely on him in any spot alone on that ticket. He is the only colt on the field where I have no way of gauging his ultimate optimum distance capability due to Not This Time's heavy speed influence. Gotta love him though and he stays put even with a potential rabbit in the stall next to him. I just hope for his safe run and he remains free from the threat of antics, much more than anything else. He must stay safe and be given a fair shot in his effort. I still love him.
BARBER ROAD - He's a very fine horse and his configurations match Abarrio but his performances are under par and appear to say that he is not yet ready to unleash that chart of his against this high caliber field.
WHITE ABARRIO - This post set him down several notches unfortunately and he will have to work much harder now. His advantage dropped substantially and his stamina side will be put to an extreme test. His chances of getting his preferred position without interference is a huge concern with this gate and he could pull a "Soup and Sandwich" type performance. The breeding still stays though but his advantage has dropped. I will still use him on my tickets but not as heavy. Tapit plus Into Mischief is nice but a better post would have been even nicer. This is still a great horse regardless though and I will definitely keep him.
CYBERKNIFE - This horse has been "race trained" very well by Brad Cox, against the grain, and now, back on Churchill's bias, he should explode with a nice easy and clear run. The post is difficult to overcome but he certainly has the proper stamina to run wide for quite awhile. Clean track, yes, slight nod underneath. Sloppy track, probably not.
CLASSIC CAUSEWAY - His road to get here points to a horse who prefers to race on fairer tracks against low caliber horses. What he wants is quite opposite of what he will find on Saturday. Lost in a sea of horses with this post, expending too much early energy will not give him that breezy win this time on a speedy bias.
TAWNY PORT - Excellent configurations. Full and complete display of his inbred stamina matched with the hard road he was faced with. This is a speed horse with fantastic Derby numbers. Is the second dirt race where he explodes with that 4.00 speed or is he the twin of "Like the King" from last year? His post knocks him out for me even though I like him alot.
ZOZOS - Excellent numbers for this race historically, but the post brings him down a couple of notches. Speed on the far outside is very tough. He will love the Churchill bias and his late speed will serve him well. He won't get bumped or steadied from this post, which helps. His numbers are too good for this race, which means, he stays. Sun or Rain.
ETHEREAL ROAD - No chance. - OUT.
RICH STRIKE - Severe stamina sitting below a 3.36 index is excellent, however, that set-up is skewed opposite of an advantage at Churchill. (Think Vino Rosso and Magnum Moon in the Derby) I will say that if you are considering Mo Donegal with a chance to run into failing speed, then you might want to consider this guy as well. He is actually holding a ton more stamina in him than Mo. Better chance on a clean track than a sloppy track.
I will make changes if anything arises before post time. Picks have been updated in the Head to Head article. Good luck everyone.
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