JEFF RUBY STEAKS - UPDATED
Turfway Park - 1-1/8th on AWS Current Track Record: Smarten 1:47.40
Post 1 FREEDOM PRINCIPLE M/L 30-1 Garraffalo/Beschizza Flameaway - Scat Daddy - Mineshaft
DP = 5-3-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD - 0.81 Mares = 14-2-2-3-13 Speed = 16 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.03 Triads = 18-7-18
He's 30-1 for a reason.
→ Post 2 DANCING GROOM M/L 15-1 Sano/Dettori Vino Rosso - Curlin - Bernardini
DP = 2-5-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.64 Mares = 6-3-5-5-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.77 Triads = 14-13-18
UPDATE: With Agate Road now taking his gate in the LA Derby, choices need to be made between Noted, Northern Flame and this guy. I see the 3 basically even as far as PPs - with a slight extra nod for the AWS landing here. The fourth spot for the super if betting that way still, is based on his breeding and the fact that his second attempt at a maiden win was highly successful at 8f on the AWS at Saratoga. He ran evenly and steady on that bias and it coincides directly with his scale. He has never seen that surface again and instead, he had to endure a sloppy track in the Champagne and a couple of Gulfstream races - all of which goes against the grain for him. He did throw in a major clunker in the KY Jockey Club, but that poor performance should have no bearing going back to AWS. I wouldn't say he is good enough to win this race, but with Dettori, this surface, his breeding, and the distance, he certainly has a much better advantage here than in his last few. We'll see how he handles it.
This guy has had only one win out of five races so far, and it just so happens that the singular win came on the AWS. Being the son of Vino Rosso (stamina dominant) coupled with the 4 points to the good in stamina inheritance from the mares works for that surface. He is not built for fast running going short on fast biases, nor for the Gulfstream track. This has all directly resulted in his poor speed figures to date. He is built for distance and also for this type of surface. He is closely knit with Otello in terms of suitability for this race. He could be an added consideration along the bottom of a super.
Post 3 LUCKY JEREMY M/L 10-1 Morrey/Corrales Lookin at Lucky - Smart Strike - War Chant
DP = 6-7-11-0-0 (24) DI = 3.36 CD = 0.79 Mares = 6-6-4-9-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-19-19
His ANZ figure hikes to 4.09 when other influential sires are added in, which directly coincide with his speedier early beyer figures when compared with this group. This set-up has a very high chance of adversely affecting him in the late stages at this distance on this surface.
Post 4 NOTED M/L 10-1 Pletcher/Saez Cairo Prince - Pioneerof the Nile - Proud Citizen
DP = DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88 Mares = 5-4-5-12-3 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.83 Triads = 14-21-20
These configurations are downright spectacular - for the Kentucky Derby. This horse actually beat Dornoch in the Sapling at Saratoga. But the rest of his resume leaves plenty to be desired. It does not appear that this guy is running to his configurations at all. The mares line is screaming for distance and/or turf and AWS but there is a disconnect. He does run much better when positioned closer to the lead tier and could be the reason for Pletcher giving him a shot in this race. Realistically, his presence up with the pace would flatter Agate Road which is the stronger possibility for his placement here. Why not give him a shot up front on AWS and if he fails, Agate Road benefits. A two for one for Pletcher. In most of his races, he is all over the place and you can't pinpoint where Saez is going to land regardless. Out of the entire field, Noted is the crapshoot. Damned if you do use him and damned if you don't.
→SCRATCH Post 5 AGATE ROAD M/L 4-1 Pletcher/Jose Ortiz Quality Road - Elusive Quality - Gemologist
DP = 2-2-8-2-0 (14) DI = 1.33 CD = 0.29 Mare = 9-2-2-7-10 Speed = 11 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.76 Triads = 13-11-19
Time for this horse to show off what he is holding. Conducive to the distance and the track surface. Heavy stamina aligns with the AWS. Mare numbers are magnificent. This is the guy that has the best chance against Endlessly in a "Box on Top" situation. He has had only one off-performance in his 6 race career so far. This was in the Breeders Juvenile on turf, which is understandable going up against Aiden O'Brien and Ryan Moore in a 2 year old turf race. Agate Road still posted hefty and impressive beyers with the ability to demonstrate good speed in spite of his stamina dominance. Love that he had a conditioner on dirt last out to work on that speed. Sweet spot on AWS. Pletcher is so good with placement. Major Player.
Post 6 NORTHERN FLAME M/L 5-1 McPeek/Leparoux Flameaway - Scat Daddy - Bernardini
DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.80 Mares = 10-2-4-2-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-8-16
"Middle of the Road" type horse trying AWS for the first time. Very torn with this guy for the surface. Outside influential sires give much better assistance (ANZ drops down to 2.11) but the mares keep him stagnant. Bernardini helps as well, but it still seems plain and uninspiring. He is not Kentucky Derby material, so in that regard he sits well below the higher end players here, however, he sits just above the obvious tosses. He does hold his ground consistently and distributes his energy evenly, which again, shows a very even-keeled type horse. Neither side of the scale intensifies, it remains horizontal. This aspect could at least keep him steady for a light nod underneath in a super bet as he remains just above all of the tosses for a shot.
Post 7 WOODCOURT M/L 6-1 Contreras/Machado Ransom the Moon - Malibu Moon - Warrior's Reward
DP = 3-4-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71 Mare Profile = 6-2-7-2-10 Speed = 8 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.72 Triads = 15-11-19
Malibu Moon stands out, along with the mares when it comes to suitability for AWS, but these very attributes contribute to adversity in his speed so far. He is favoring that stamina side to a very high degree which helps on the AWS but it defeats his speed. He has posted 4 wins out of a whopping 10 races so far, and each of those wins resulted in sub-par beyer figures. It appears he is out of his league here against other stamina-driven contenders in this race - all of which afford better odds to the gambler. Their speed stays intact. Could he be good for a minor board hit? Yes, because his breeding aligns with the AWS, just like a couple of others as well.
→ Post 8 OTELLO M/L 12-1 Clement/Castellano Curlin - Smart Strike - Eskendereya
DP = 5-4-12-0-1 (22) DI = 2.14 CD = 0.55 Mares = 5-6-1-12-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.68 Triads = 12-19-19
Live Longshot. Built incredibly well for the surface. Last two at Gulfstream were not necessarily geared to his build. Disappointing 6th place in the Holy Bull but still exhibited killer late speed. Actually had the tenacity in the Mucho Macho Man to spring for the win. Showed even distribution to win at Aqueduct. With the evidence of speed ability and the undeniable amount of advantageous stamina for the AWS, this guy really has no excuse if he doesn't fire here. If he is going to show off that killer inheritance during the Derby Road, this would be the place, the surface and the distance. At the very least, board-hit material.
→ Post 9 SEIZE THE GREY M/L 8-1 Lukas/Juarez Arrogate - Unbridled's Song - Smart Strike
DP = 7-16-9-0-0 (32) DI = 6.11 CD = 0.94 Mares = 4-6-4-9-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.72 Triads = 14-19-19
Another with phenomenal configurations for the Kentucky Derby. He has hit the board on 4 separate race tracks including a short romp on muddy AWS. Distance is the name of the game for this guy. He prefers to pass late rather than run fast early, which may be to his advantage this time around. This is why he did not post wins running so short - he grabs the tail end. This bodes very well for this distance now, with more probability of extra retreating horses as well. Chef index is extremely high for AWS but Arrogate and his mares give him some extra backing. Good board-hit shot because he is finally hitting a much more favorable distance. He will move on this track and it also appears that Lukas has been pushing him to sit closer to the lead tier. With a good trip, he looks to be a player.
→ Post 10 ENDLESSLY M/L 5-2 McCarthy/Rispoli Oscar Performance - Kittens Joy - Langfuhr
DP = 5-4-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 7-7-4-7-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 18-18-18
He has the proper configurations, the experience and the tenacity for this race and he is the deserving favorite here. He appears to be the easy single in this race but two "picky" points will give me the justification for boxing my top 4 in this race (highlighted in red) instead of the single. First, his odds. I'm not one to shy away from a shot at a better payout if there is a presence of another who has the goods to shine as well. Second, there is a very slight chance of vulnerability with running on AWS in Florence, Kentucky as opposed to California - (and I do mean slight!) This side of America may affect the type of extreme lead speed that he is used to running into on the West Coast - quite possibly not quite as fast up front in this prep race. The slower it goes early, the more vulnerable he gets. It would be up to the gambler to decide if the additional cost to box is even worth it.
Post 11 BAYTOWN CHATTERBOX M/L 30-1 McEntee/Jimenez Street Sense - Street Cry - First Samurai
DP = 4-2-12-0-0 (18) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.56 Mares = 10-4-1-9-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.04 Triads = 15-14-17
Entry into this race makes ZERO SENSE, even with Street Sense in his corner.
Post 12 WEST SARATOGA M/L 20-1 Demeritte/Castanon Exaggerator - Curlin - Uncle Mo
DP = 2-3-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70 Mares = 8-3-2-9-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.84 Triads = 13-14-18
Connections have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at a horse who does not want to run late. Travelling 1/16th further than his longest won't change his energy in the least - it simply makes it that much more difficult.
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