Massive Travers in 2024

They say that PACE makes the race, but understanding how the BIAS affects that pace is even more important.

Horse racing is a multifaceted puzzle where one element feeds off the other. Judging these elements out of order could potentially have an adverse affect on your profit margin. When it comes to a Graded Stakes race, especially a Grade 1 race, organization in your handicapping is your best tool.

This upcoming edition of the Travers Stakes will be attacked in the same exact manner as previous years and hopefully with the same exact successful results. When you drown out the noise and stick to the system, you have a much greater chance at achievement than by simply following the crowd.

Last year's edition is a great example.

Forte, the over-hyped favorite who went off at 1.75 to 1, did not hit any of the criteria in any order prior to the bell. Arcangelo (2.7 to 1) and Disarm (12.2 to 1) did. Forte ended up taking 4th place, close to 10 lengths behind.

That exacta paid 36 to 1. Taking a stand and reading the aspects of all the pertinent points does have its perks.

It takes boldness to read a race while blocking out the noise and going against the public's perception - but it is this very thing that separates the "men" from the "boys."

Stick to the system. Do not be intimidated to make your bold choices. Have faith in your handicapping. Never neglect a single horse in that gate until all points are exhausted and you are satisfied with your final choices.

HANDICAPPING THE 2024 TRAVERS STAKES

1. GET A HANDLE ON THE RACE ITSELF.

This point cannot be overstated enough when it comes to a Graded Stakes Race with massive history. (see article)

Consulting the race results list prior to tackling the past performance sheet must always be the first of the agenda. It will tell you the type, style, breeding, and bias correlation that found success in the past for the specific race.

Equibase.com

Each one of these high quality winners were a product of their breeding and running style as it corresponded to the specific SARATOGA BIAS as presented on that specific day. That bias affected the eventual pace which gave advantage to the two opposing sides of the spectrum straight down the line.

To be more specific, the winners are a mix of speed horses - midrange horses - and stamina horses as determined by their running style which corresponded with the bias of the track on that specific day.

Saratoga is a highly quirky track and as you can see by the list of names, regardless of that quality and 10f ability, the bias of the day had a strong effect OVER each of the advantaged factors.

WINNER CHEFS MARES Chef CATEGORY

Arcangelo DI = 8.60   CD = 0.92 Second Generation Tapit Speed 

Epicenter DI = 0.60   CD = -0.42 Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.74 Stamina  

Essential Quality DI = 3.00   CD = 0.66 First Generation Tapit Neutral

Tiz the Law DI = 4.33   CD = 0.75 Second Generation Tapit Speed

Code of Honor DI = 0.76   CD = 0.00 Speed = 12   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.64 Stamina

Catholic Boy DI = 2.08   CD = 0.65 Speed = 12   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.80 Neutral

West Coast DI = 3.73   CD = 0.96 Speed = 12   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.84 Speed  

Arrogate DI = 6.27   CD = 0.83 Speed = 10   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.62 Speed  

Keen Ice DI = 2.73   CD = 0.64 Speed = 6   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.46 Neutral  

V.E. Day DI = 1.89   CD = 0.50 Speed = 7   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.50   Stamina

Will Take Charge DI = 6.00   CD = 0.81 Speed = 10   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.76 Speed  

Golden Ticket DI = 3.40   CD = 0.86 Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.28   Exception

Alpha DI = 1.67   CD = 0.44 Speed = 9   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.57 Stamina Stay Thirsty DI = 2.25   CD = 0.54 Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.70 Neutral 

As you can see from the list above, with the Travers Stakes, the chefs INDEX takes a back seat to the CD and the Mares Index. The category is a direct result of the bias.

What does this mean?

The Chef Index of these winners corresponds to the bias of the track that day, along with the advantaged running style, while the CD and the Mares Index all align with the required stamina necessary to run the 10f distance.

With the exception of Golden Ticket (and West Coast to a minor extent) note the CD of each of the winners - REGARDLESS of where their Chef Index places them on the speed/stamina spectrum. Note the lower Mare Index of each of the winners REGARDLESS of Chef Index. Note the presence of Tapit as well.

The bias of the track will affect which side of the speed/stamina scale (category) the eventual winner will emerge as long as that horse still has the 10f capacity that stems from either the Center of Distribution from his chefs scale and/or the readable 10f stamina from his mares. Of course, Tapit adds the stamina to the other three.

Exceptional 10f stamina needs to be readable - regardless of which side of the scale the contender falls in. This is different than most Graded stakes races and the reason falls directly in line with the bias of the track.

There is always an exception to the rule, this time with Golden Ticket. This horse did not have readable 10f capability through his numbers. The "exception" is always considered a stand-out who runs through his stated numbers and against the norm. This could easily happen any year but the probability is extremely low. As usual, this percentage falls at only 7.14%.

Even the "seemingly higher" .83 and .81 CD's with Arrogate and Will Take Charge are actually quite low for a 6.00 and 6.27 index (balanced) but they both also held the proper Mare index under .90 for the 10f.

Additionally, Arrogate held 40 total chef points and Alpha held 36. This point, in and of itself, always foretells an advantage regardless of anything else.

To reiterate, for the Travers Stakes, the eventual winner will come from ANY category within the chefs spectrum based on the bias of the track as it aligns with his running style. The Chef Index is a moot point at first with this particular race. It is the strong ability to conquer the 10f with HIGH readable 10f capability and alignment with the main key factor - Saratoga is highly influenced by the Bias of the Day.

This is the very reason why Dornoch prevailed in the 10f Belmont at Saratoga. The exceptionally fast track that day corresponded to the lead tier WHO HAD READABLE 10f capability. This is the reason why the favorite, Sierra Leone, lost his edge prior to the bell.

This is the reason why Sierra Leone missed his opportunity in the Haskell Stakes and why Dornoch ran exceptionally well against the "normal" Monmouth bias. Both bred for a track like Monmouth Park with two different running styles, but Sierra Leone's late energy highly superior at the shorter 9f distance on that specific bias. FASTER late with the shorter amount of distance to sustain those jets. Exactly like Cyberknife on that specific track. At Monmouth Park, Sierra Leone would have been much more advantaged than Dornoch. In reality, Dornoch outdid himself in the Haskell. Incredible horse.

This is also the reason why Fierceness prevailed over Sierra Leone in the 9f Jim Dandy back at Saratoga. The BIAS of the track favored the speedy winner, giving advantage and enhancement to his running style and aiding his cause. If the full fields were switched to the Monmouth track, the advantage would have been switched as well.

Depending on Saratoga's ultimate track bias, which will most likely stand at fast yet again, Sierra Leone will most likely forfeit his late speed advantage to one who relishes a forward tier running style and who is equipped with stellar stamina. That extra furlong eats into all competitors equally, with some capitalizing off of their position. It is simply common sense.

On the flip side, a fast track will enhance a speedy front tier runner in a variety of ways. It will allow the horse comfort in exerting more power with his pace, allowing a greater chance of running faster than his norm, which in turn, could ultimately steal any reserved late energy just as fast. If he is not holding the proper "extra" stamina to sustain that faster pace, he will drop out even sooner than norm. (Similar to a colt whose energy favors early speed like Seize the Grey).

Understanding his build as it aligns with that bias is the key.

Additionally, the amount of the same "type" or direct peers within that running style category needs to be handicapped separately. Basically, you need to handicap two separate times for the one race - pitting each contender against each other within that same style category. This will be extremely important for this particular edition.

2. GRASP RUNNING STYLES, ULTIMATE PACE STRUCTURE, BREEDING FOR DISTANCE

On a fast track at 10f, lead tier with extravagant inbred speed coupled with readable 10f distance capability will always hold the advantage over his peers within the running style categories. This is also common sense. You are looking to find the horses who align with the bias through their running style; with the greatest amount of inbred speed to run faster than their peers; with the staying power as they inherited through their chart.

With the high amount of potential lead tier runners slated for this edition and assuming a fast track - the advantage will go to the two extreme ends of the speed/stamina spectrum as shown within the chefs index based on that advantaged running style.

(Of course, advantages flip if bias turns sideways. Just remember, this is a 10f race - not 9f.)

At the moment:

WANTS THE LEAD OR LEAD TIER: Advantaged category with Normal fast Bias. (in order)

PARENTING DI = 1.93   CD = 0.55 Speed = 11   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.74 WOW!

DORNOCH DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57 Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.89 2.50 aids the .89

DRAGOON GUARD DI = 4.78   CD = 0.85 Speed = 8   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.62 WOW!

BATTEN DOWN DI = 3.92   CD = 0.78 First Generation Tapit WOW!

UNMATCHED WISDOM DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 Speed = 8   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.74 Good, but 3.00 low

FIERCENESS DI = 5.00   CD = 0.83 Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.92 Close. Not Perfect.

MUTH DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.96   Close. Not Perfect.

THORPEDO ANNA DI = 3.00   CD = 0.83 Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.09 Filly - ???, not good

SEIZE THE GREY DI = 6.11   CD = 0.94 Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.72 Favors Chefs

MID PACK RUNNERS: Neutral Advantage with Normal fast Bias.

MINDFRAME DI = 4.33   CD = 0.75 Second Generation Tapit Numbers perfect.

CORPORATE POWER DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.88 Close. Not Perfect.

REAR RUNNERS: Least Advantaged with Normal fast Bias.

SIERRA LEONE DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 Speed = 8   Stamina = 14 Index = 0.67 Numbers perfect.

HONOR MARIE DI = 3.24   CD = 0.78 Speed = 7   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.61 Numbers Perfect.

Assuming a fast bias, Fierceness and Dornoch have 4 peers who have a combination of the following:

Extreme lead tier stamina along with either raw displayed speed or advantaged inbred speed. They are Parenting, Dragoon Guard, Batten Down and Unmatched Wisdom to an extent.

Highly advantaged at the 10f distance, with Parenting sitting with the best set-up matched with his running style and and inbred chef and mare endurance (1.93/.74), coupled with displayed lead speed capability.

Parenting stands out like a sore thumb.

Between the fast bias and the ability of those, Dornoch and Fierceness will exert more energy in the latter part of the race. Fierceness will keep up because of his inbred 5.00 index - Dornoch will need to steal more (2.50), which will affect his normal early pace adversely.

Since Dornoch has a 2.50 index, his sustainability reaches further than Fierceness, however, he is not built with the same inbred speed attributes of a few of his peers within that running style category. It will all depend on how that bias affects those true speed horses; namely, Dragoon Guard, Batten Down and possibly Unmatched Wisdom.

Mindframe will still remain neutral and advantaged with his structure.

Seize the Grey gets highly affected at this distance, especially with the additional competition running toe to toe with him.

While Unmatched Wisdom has the perfect requirements for the distance along with the proper running style, his 3.00 index shows LESS inbred speed against a couple of his peers in that category. This is where the PPs will come into play as you pit his DISPLAYED speed against those same competitors. He matches with distance capability, but we need to see evidence of his true speed ability against those advantaged foes running with him.

Sierra Leone and Honor Marie have the build for the race but advantage plummets with the fast bias. They need the bias to turn at this distance because they have at least 5 lead tier fast runners who will be enhanced by that surface along with incredible inbred qualities matched with their position on the track.

Thorpedo Anna is the unknown. Fillies generally do not align with their numbers like the boys, however, face value, the mares are completely off for this specific race. Sometimes the girls align with their numbers, but most times they don't. When one is entered against a field of boys, I rarely even spend the time handicapping them. If she were a he, I'd toss quicker than lightening, but the normal approach with a filly; spread them across the board, just in case.

The 2024 Travers Stakes is turning out to be a very exciting race to handicap with at least a couple of possible longshot entries who are looking phenomenally built for this race.

When the ultimate field is set and those PP's come out with their gate assignments, dive headstrong into those longshots. Never underestimate the track bias and breeding! This is where the profit comes in! Full analysis will be posted as usual this year.