In just three short weeks, the 153rd edition of the Belmont Stakes will take place in Elmont, NY. This race is the crowning glory of the Triple Crown and one of the greatest races of the year. This year, the colts will be center-stage, not the trainers. This year, we are all but assured a fair test of the Champion with no worries about drugs. This makes things much easier and it highlights, specifically, the true breeding of the horse as opposed to any outside factors. We have been dealt a welcome relief and a fair shot at real handicapping. In a nutshell, the Baffert factor does not exist outside of the Derby and we have pure evidence of that – the results of the 2021 Preakness. The best horse won because of that spotlight which has finally been turned on with regard to the untouchable trainer. That extra special fact will continue into this year’s Belmont. I never thought I’d live to see another day where a handicapper could just simply read the information on a chart and on a past performance sheet and wager on the best horses on the field without the other ridiculous factors. What a welcome relief from the last several years.
At the moment there appears to be 14 potential contenders for the Belmont Stakes. Out of the fourteen, there are 3 colts who have what it takes to win this race. There is one who towers over the other two. There are also 5 others who have what it takes to hit that stretch and grab a piece. Half of the field can be tossed without a second thought.
Rock Your World is just about as close to a lock as you can get. But for the sake of argument, as we all know, the best doesn’t always win. However, with the way things shook out with the Derby, the idea of a clean and fair race for once makes for a compelling argument to go for the best again this time around. The second horse has Tapit history on his side. The third is a filly who has that entire Vino Rosso type speed with crazy mare stamina that is too good to overlook. The fourth horse is finally revealing what he is made of and he slammed Baffert's duo in a race much more conducive to their breeding and against his own. That right there speaks volumes about Rombauer.
There is one other colt who would thrive in this race as well, King Fury, who has an unknown status for this race as of this date. We need to stay on top of his status and if he is a late-comer, he is definitely one that should not be over-looked. He is built for the Belmont Stakes, there is no doubt about that.
These four horses are the cream of the crop for the Belmont (so far)…
ROCK YOUR WORLD
ROMBAUER
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
MALATHAAT
Unlike the Kentucky Derby, the bias of the track does not hold as much weight. Often times, if there is a strong speed favoring bias, it will usually cripple most of the speed horses who entered a gate. They can only rely on the bias for so long and they will gain extra endurance on that bias, but not a full 2 extra furlongs worth. A speed favoring bias is a death trap in the Belmont unless of course the horse is attached to the victim Baffert. But this year, the antics will not be tolerated. Both Justify and American Pharoah were allowed the Baffert Magic, but not this year. I would actually be surprised if he even enters Medina Spirit for this 12f knowing that there will be a spotlight of zero tolerance this time around. Honestly, I just love saying it. What a relief to finally just work with info and nothing else. It has been quite awhile, hasn't it?
The only other horse that Baffert carried that Belmont trophy home with was Point Given. That boy was in a completely different league and he was absolutely built for the 12f race. He fit the mold perfectly and it was probably a time when Baffert was a novice at mixing potions. Point Given was a superstar and far exceeded both Pharoah and Justify in every way when it came to the 12f race.
The analysis for the Belmont Stakes will be out very early this year. Along with that, the Members Access will be in full force.
There are a couple extra contenders that do have the ability to break through but over half the field this year can be easily tossed without a second thought. We will finally be able to work on a race without “the Unknown” and I have every confidence that the numbers will point to the real superstars who will hit that tote board this year. As the field stands is exactly how we need it to stay. The dynamics of the easy tosses will actually hand greater advantages to those who are bred perfectly for this race. Needless to say, I have been handicapping this race since May 2nd.
The Belmont Stakes is the only race of the year that is truly dictated by the inbred qualities of the speed and stamina balance. The bias does not dictate and Baffert cannot dictate. Workout times do not dictate and past performances/beyers/timeform figures hold no meaning. It is 101% breeding this year (and a good break out of the gate this time will help a great deal as well!)
It will be important to track every move from this day up to the afternoon of June 5th - every move, every tidbit of info, every rumor and every word out of the mouths of the trainers of those 4 listed above. Included as well would be Rebel’s Romance, Brooklyn Strong, Overtook and Known Agenda just to be on the safe side. Also, anything that comes up regarding King Fury.
Please use this thread to keep things up to date with anything that has to do with the Belmont race. We are looking for revenge on the Kentucky Derby and personally, I will not be denied. This is the race. This is the time. We are finally afforded a relief from the Baffert Machine.
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