Yesterday, I posted an article on Derma Sotogake. It needs to be totally revamped.
I completely neglected the run-up. Thankfully, Brian reminded me in an email which I saw this morning. I have since taken the article down and will repost when I get the proper information on those Japan tracks, which I anticipate will be a very hard feat.
The run-up is the opening distance on a given track that is not recorded until the first horse trips the beam. Once the lead hits that spot, the timing begins.
For instance, at Gulfstream Park, the run-up distance is 70ft. Once the very first horse hits that mark, the timing begins for all on the field. At Turfway Park, it's 80 ft. At Fair Grounds, it's 45ft.
This run-up distance gives the horses time to get in gear and accelerate for their run. All charts do reflect the proper time once the beam is tripped. However, it does not accurately reflect the exact distance of the race run in sync with each horse, with the exception of the first who hits that spot first.
For instance, if the race is 8f, and the run-up is 100ft, when the lead hits that 100ft mark, the timing for the actual race begins. For the rest of the field, their timing begins at whatever point they were within the run-up grid, leaving them with a bit more ground to cover in their precise accurate final time. It is minimal, seconds here, fractions there, several feet here and there, but it is an important detail in accuracy.
This is important because it makes the times faster given they get up to a higher speed once the clock starts. With no run-up, the horse's time starts at a standing position. This is a huge difference.
Most importantly, for accuracy in Derma Sotogake's case as he relates to our prep runners, it is imperative.
In just one race example for instance, at the Meydan Racecourse with his UAE Derby performance, there in no run-up. This means that comparison with the preps here in the states would need to account for the run-up distance to ensure a closer and more accurate final time and comparison.
In addition to this small detail, there is no information that I have been able to find - yet - that speaks about run-up distances on Japan's tracks. This of course would affect the comparisons beyond the discrepancies with the conversion distances between meters and furlongs. That part is still absolutely necessary but then the differences in the run-up must be added in as well. Because of this, I needed to remove the article on Derma until this info is found.
This affects not only the comparisons to our USA runners, but it also affects the accuracy with how his numbers and breeding align with those performances.
With the normal mid-pack to rear running style of Derma Sotogake's performances in Japan, the timing was started by another horse up front, while Derma was still in the grid - if there was even one to consider. Final times could realistically be adjusted minimally, but it is best to know precisely. Of course, with no run-up in the UAE Derby, his original comparison outlook to Kingsbarns was incorrect and will be fixed and judged accordingly.
With inaccurate final comparisons and the lack of speed that was found initially, that part was aligned with his configurations. This is incorrect now, based on inaccurate final times without consideration of the run-up.
Perfect final times and how they compare will help gauge the displayed speed that he has exhibited. In this sense, we can then judge much more accurately if he is pulling from his scale. Which side is more dominant and how this relates between his scale to the 10f distance at Churchill.
With inaccurate information, it would affect the insight on how his chart and inheritance correlates to those performances. This is why I removed it. Every detail must be aligned properly in order to match it to his stated inheritance.
With that said, Derma Sotogake's numbers and configurations still remain as stated, historically inferior. However, in order to determine if the horse is running "through" his inheritance, they must be attached properly to his performances. They must be judged and compared accurately to his USA competitors. The run-up must be accounted for when applicable.
I will continue to research these tracks in order to post the proper information. I don't have much faith that the info will be readily available either. I apologize for this but it is more important to relay the proper information.
So, it is back to the drawing board with Mr. Derma and Mr. Continuar. Disheartening, I know, but when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, the most accurate and detailed information needs to be consulted and judged because it affects every other aspect, especially in relation with his stated chart vs. his displayed speed and stamina.
To give you a slight idea of how important this info truly is, the difference when including the run-up distances with our guys makes Derma look 1000 times better than without it. This is a huge factor. Massive.
And here, I thought this year was going to be easy! Thanks again, Brian. Great catch!
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