Saratoga's Belmont

The Belmont Stakes will not be the same this year.

We will put away all 12f historical data. We will toss aside decades of Dr. Roman's Perfection.

We will, instead, try to erase everything we know that circles the 10f Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. This race will become a beast unto itself. I'll call it, the Outlier at Saratoga.

The 10f distance will still absolutely matter, but the main criteria for this year's last leg of the Triple Crown will be the domination of those not simply built for the race, but the ones who are "built for the TRACK".

The 156th running of the Belmont Stakes will take place on June 8th for the very first time in Saratoga Springs and the 7th time in history that it will not be run at 12f.

Thursday, June 6th to Sunday, June 9th is the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. They will hold 23 stakes races with a combined purse of $10.1 million.

Thursday, June 6:

Belmont Gold Cup - Turf

Astoria - Dirt

Jersey Girl - Dirt

Tremont - Dirt

Friday, June:

Acorn - Grade 1 - Dirt

Just a Game - Turf

Intercontinental - Turf

Saturday, June 8:

Metropolitan Handicap (BC) - Dirt

Resorts World Casino Manhattan - Turf

Ogden Phipps (BC) - Dirt

Jaipur (BC) - Turf

Woody Stephens - Dirt

True North - Dirt

Suburban - Dirt

Poker - Turf

Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets - Dirt - 10f

There will only be 9 graded races ON DIRT in the lead-up to the Belmont Stakes. These 9 races must be scrutinized under a microscope in order to gauge track advantage through this mini-meet on "foreign soil."

For instance, the 7f Woody Stephens has been won consistently by those on the lead or stalking the lead. We'll see if that holds up on June 8th. The 10f Suburban will also give us a good taste of the track bias as well. The 9 dirt races over the 3-day period will be key.

D. Wayne Lukas's Charge

In keeping with the idea that the Saratoga track bias will be the key to this year's Belmont, one cannot help but look deeper into this year's Preakness winner, Seize the Grey.

There is no doubt that the association with Arrogate makes Seize the Grey a compelling character when it comes to the track at Saratoga.

On August 27, 2016, Arrogate was installed in a Saratoga gate for the first and only time in his career. He demolished the field in the 10f Travers running gate to wire. He won the race by 13.5 lengths against the likes of Gun Runner, Connect, Creator, Destin, and Exaggerator, among others.

To say that Arrogate was built for that race, as well as built for that Saratoga track, is understatement. The most sweeping performance of his career, aided in part by the bias of the track.

Arrogate's Configurations:

DP = 6-25-7-0-2 (40) DI = 6.27   CD = 0.83

Mare Profile = 4-6-4-7-9   Speed = 10   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.62   Triads = 14-17-20

Loaded in his chefs profile with 40 points. Mares with a strong lean to stamina which compliments the dominant 25 points in his chefs Intermediate slot. Major Speed + Major Stamina = Untouchable.

In order to qualify an immediate sire (in terms of distance or bias preference) when it comes to his offspring, we need not look too far. Seize the Grey's half-brother, Arcangelo, is a great example.

On 6/10/23, Arrogate's son, Arcangelo, was tasked to run the 12f Belmont Stakes with these configurations:

DP = 3-16-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60   CD = 0.92

Mare Profile = 6-7-4-9-5   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 17-20-18 (2nd gen Tapit)

Arcangelo was also sporting Tapit in his second generation through his dam, which gave him the extra stamina needed to conquer the 1-1/2 miles of the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park. But he was extremely equipped for a more optimal 10f and built incredibly for the Saratoga Track.

On August 26, 2023, Arcangelo ran the last race of his career in the 10f Travers Stakes at Saratoga. Just like his sire, he demolished that field in high fashion and posted the best and fastest performance of his short tenure. Again, built for the distance and built for the bias.

Even Arrogate's daughter, Secret Oath, held an edge at Saratoga. Even though the three times she entered a gate on that track taking home three 2nd place trophies, she was still competitive against Nest and Idiomatic.

Seize the Grey will enter the 10f Belmont Stakes at Saratoga with a built-in edge on that track.

He is holding impeccable configurations for Saratoga:

DP = 7-16-9-0-0 (32) DI = 6.11   CD = 0.94

Mare Profile = 4-6-4-9-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.72   Triads = 14-19-19

As you can see, he is loaded in his profile, dominant in his Intermediate category and equipped with magnificent mare stamina just like his father. Major Speed + Major Stamina = 10f Saratoga Monster

One of the main reasons why a loaded profile is so advantageous is because when a colt is holding a larger amount of listed chefs in his first four generations, he has more "qualities and tendencies" to pull from. Each of the sires may have been proficient on different biases and now the new colt has a bigger bag to pull from.

There is a reason why Saratoga is best known as the "Graveyard of Champions". This track, for many years, did not cater to the usual speed-driven monster who demolished his foes at facilities like Santa Anita and even Churchill in the Spring. This is why a horse like American Pharoah was beaten by the stamina-driven Keen Ice in the 2015 Travers.

Saratoga was the complete opposite of Santa Anita, therefore, American Pharoah lost his edge.

Back then, the undefeated speedsters would test their luck on the Saratoga dirt and falter time and time again. Now, the track is different but it still has its quirks and it could go through periods of time where it hands advantages back and forth.

There was a recent time when trainers like Pletcher and Cox complained about the track surface. Speedsters up front were dropping like flies before the 3/4 pole. Very different indeed.

When a contender has a loaded profile, he has a tendency to gravitate to both sides of the bias with much greater ease. He is not handed a disadvantage one way or the other.

A colt like Fierceness will only have one side of the probable bias - a more speedier surface - and if he is lucky enough to catch it at Saratoga, he will glide much easier and much faster. His energy will not take a beating and he will be able to sustain his pace much longer.

If Saratoga is back to catering to stamina during this three day festival, well, he won't stand a chance.

It is not so much how the track hands a special kind of advantage to those holding the right ingredients, it is more about how adversely it affects those who aren't holding those same types of qualities as handed down to them. The tables could easily turn on a dime. Only the race results will allow the puzzle to be put together properly.

With the way that Seize the Grey is built, it simply won't matter how that track is playing. He will find no disadvantage either way. This is not to say that he is a lock at this point, but for this year's 10f Saratoga Belmont, he walks in with a few extra built-in charms in his back pocket.

For this year's Belmont Stakes, the 10f distance is of major importance as usual, but the track bias is the key. The 9 dirt races and those results prior to the big race is the answer this year. You must understand who the Graveyard of Champions is willing to help or hinder for that long weekend.

Seize the Grey working out for the Belmont Stakes. 6f in 1:13.00 at Churchill.