Listed Highest Inbred Speed down to Highest Inbred Stamina
This is not a formal analysis, just some notes and insight to consider in conjunction with your handicapping.
3.00 and Over
TAPIT TRICE Tapit - Danzatrice (Dunkirk)
DP = 5-15-11-1-0 (32) DI = 3.92 CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.92
Mare Profile = 10-6-1-7-7 Speed = 16 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.23
Post: 5 Pletcher/Saez
The main thing that stands out here is that Tapit Trice's best effort came at a distance. He posted his best performance numbers at 12f. He sits with the highest amount of inbred speed on the field but where he "should have" excelled beyond the competitors he faces, he lacks. He appears to gravitate to the stamina side of his inheritance at a greater clip based on his resume's evidence. There is no doubt that he is a special and talented horse and could easily run a fast 9f if he so desires but he is very risky at the distance. His running style is counter to the advantaged positioning but that may not be by design. He is certainly not the best breaker on the field and could possibly be a bit too pace dependent because of it. Wouldn't leave him out of a super though.
SALUTE THE STARS Candy Ride - Star Sighting (Malibu Moon)
DP = 4-8-7-1-0 (20) DI = 3.44 CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.44
Mare Profile = 3-4-5-7-9 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.50 Triads = 12-16-21
Post: 3 Cox/Rosario
Appears to be the wise guy for this edition and does have a nice amount of inbred speed but the mare's certainly steal from it. His best has come on dirt on the proper bias, but he will need to travel faster early and go an additional 1/16th which will eat into his final pace. The fact that he has been successful on all three surfaces proves to present a very well-rounded colt and it is no surprise coming from a Candy Ride Son. The problem that he faces here is the early pace and since he has no adversity to AWS and turf, the evidence shows that his stamina side definitely has something to say. This is contrary to the elements that would be necessary in the Haskell. More allegiance to the speed side would have helped.
HOWGREATISNATE Speightster - Bee Dees Bid (Tapit)
DP = 5-8-11-0-0 (24) DI = 3.36 CD = 0.75 ANZ = 4.45
Mare Profile = 8-3-4-6-9 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.82 Triads = 15-13-19
Post: 6 Dobles/Lopez
With a 4.45 ANZ index it is no wonder that he won 4 straight at 6f and under. Second generation Tapit conquers the mares numbers and keeps his speed well below the field. The fact that Paco Lopez is taking a stab does upgrade his performance capability but should be no match for the rest of the group. He would need to take a giant leap here and the extra 1/16th will cut into his late speed. Too big of a race.
ARABIAN KNIGHT Uncle Mo - Borealis Knight (Astrology)
DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67 ANZ = 4.33
Mare Profile = 8-1-7-4-7 Speed = 9 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.96 Triads = 16-12-18
Post: 8 Baffert/Velazquez
First, this guy is built very well for the 9f at Monmouth. Speed dominant both top and bottom, the perfect running style, ample stamina for the 9f. He has a few obvious setbacks. First race after many months off being tasked to conquer a Grade One race on the opposite side of the country and far removed from his Santa Anita working grounds. Post 8 for a Lead runner up against the Gate 2 horse, Awesome Strong, who consistently posted faster first two calls. He is scary good and his trainer won this race 9 times, and everything points to him as the logical winner. I'm petrified of him at 9f, but at M/L odds of 2.5 to 1 with those negatives, at least there are excuses to play against the favorite for the win.
2.00 to 2.90
MAGE Good Magic - Puca (Big Brown)
DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 ANZ = 2.50
Mare Profile = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19
Post: 4 G. Delgado/Castellano
His fate will rely on Arabian Knight and Awesome Strong. We know he is good and we know his success against the likes of Forte at the same distance. Absolutely pace dependent and should easily perform just as well, if not better, with a very fast pace here, which he may in fact receive on Saturday. The key between Mage and Extra Anejo is where they position themselves at the start. Mage has a tendency to fumble the break to his advantage. Extra Anejo can run from anywhere on the field. If Anejo can lay off of a wicked pace like he did in his last, he will have the advantaged position over Mage. The late figures of Mage are better but he has more ground to cover. Anejo's late figures are a bit deceiving because he has twice been geared down in the stretch. In addition, all 3 races that Extra Anejo has run so far were way under his capacity and he should take a major step up with the added furlong. It is hard to differentiate between these two - pros and cons for both as it pertains to a win. Because of the odds, I see them boxed.
AWESOME STRONG Awesome Slew - Pleasant Ring (Pleasant Tap)
DP = 5-8-11-1-1 (26) DI = 2.47 CD = 0.58 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-10 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.75 Triads = 13-11-18
Post: 2 J. Delgado/Batista
Bear with me on this one. I believe this horse is the key to the entire race. Something needs to be pointed out here that may be a bit more on the strategic side and at least needs to be addressed. This horse posted early pace figures of 103/114 at 7f and then came back with early pace figures of 113/113 at 8.5f. His late figures in both decreased substantially. These are the highest (consistent) early figures of the group. Installed in Post Two, there is a strong probability that he will gun for that lead and get it. If he does, he will never hold that pace going even longer. Another very strong argument for this scenario is the trainer of this horse, Jorge Delgado, is the nephew of Mage's trainer, Gustavo Delgado. One on the lead and one coming from the back. Extreme fast pace with a horse who has consistently geared down late going even longer, magnifies Mage's opportunity. Sacrificial lamb staying in the family? Possibly. If this is the strategy, expect a very fast pace. He has only taken the lead one time in his career so far, but those early pace figures show a blow out up front from that post if they go that route.
Baffert is going to want that lead with Arabian Knight. His early pace is nowhere near Awesome Strong. He posted 97/96 and 94/99. On top of that, Knight is in Gate 8. Does he rate behind Awesome Strong or does he get into a speed duel up front trying to keep up and surpassing? This would surely enhance Mage, who is pace dependent. Either way, Awesome Strong has shown zero evidence that he can keep his endurance in check going shorter regardless of where he positions himself up front. Now we're going longer. It is not that Awesome Strong has distance limitations, it is that his energy distribution is horrible. They know this.
Under 2.00
GEAUX ROCKET RIDE Candy Ride - Beyond Grace (Uncle Mo)
DP = 2-1-4-1-0 (8) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.33
Mare Profile = 4-1-6-6-7 Speed = 5 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.58 Triads = 11-13-19
Post: 1 Mandella/Smith
This Candy Ride son is showing allegiance to his numbers and with each race conquered, he takes a strong upgrade. He has done very well on the Santa Anita track in spite of the fact that his breeding might be a tad against that bias. That shows a stand-out with a strong potential of upgrading his status at Monmouth. He is extremely stamina dominant but that did not thwart his ability to glide at Santa Anita. As a young Candy Ride offspring, they do tend to heighten at this stage and his prominent non-chefs do impart additional speed. That part is needed here. A very good addition to any super bet with the ability to surprise.
EXTRA ANEJO Into Mischief - Superioritycomplex (Hard Spun)
DP = 1-2-6-5-0 (14) DI = 0.75 CD = -0.07 ANZ = 1.00
Mare Profile = 2-11-6-9-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.84 Triads = 19-26-20
Post: 7 Asmussen/Gaffalione
Favoritism aside, (which is very hard to do!) This guy is built like a Tsunami for any distance and any bias. His 6f workout at CD before his last race was 1:11.3 and then he proceeded to run 1:10 for the opening 6f in that race and just missed breaking the track record for the mile. For a speed demon, a sprinter, this would be highly commendable but also quite natural. Extra Anejo is NOT a sprinter. He has a negative CD and a .75 index. The fact that he has quadruple the endurance of most on this field while still able to balance it with killer speed is unmatched for this race. He has competed successfully on 3 separate biases so far and he gets a pass for his 2nd place coming back first time off long layoff and surgery. Now he tackles Monmouth Park with a race that has been kind to those who run up front. Evidence of record-breaking speed with unmatched stamina is sensational.
There are two problems here that need to be thought out. First, if Awesome Strong does in fact run to that 103 to 113 early pace for Mage, Anejo could get caught up with Arabian Knight - which could spell doom. Based on the massive amount of endurance that he is holding; he could easily pull a Flightline as well. The other problem is that he is very lightly raced. A Maiden/Allowance runner going up against a Derby Winner and several Triple Crown players and Graded Stakes horses is tough for even the best of them. In short, his experience is highly lacking, both with the competition he will face and with the spectacle of such a race. His demeanor in the post parade will be key.
Lack of experience though does not override a chart. Arcangelo won the Belmont Stakes with three Maidens and one Grade 3 under his belt. If a horse is built properly to compete and he is on the upswing with each subsequent race, he will perform.
As far as his chart and his displayed speed with that chart, none compare. To be 100% honest, it appears that his entire make-up is best suited for the 10f Travers than the 9f Haskell. The Haskell caters more to speed oriented horses like Arabian Knight, they have a better propensity to endure on that bias.
Because of his Stamina-leaning chart, Extra Anejo is the most disadvantaged on this field but he would be highly advantaged at Saratoga. Be that as it may, he is still built incredibly for 9f, he has shown marvelous speed capability IN SPITE of that chart, and his performance will upgrade each time he runs further.
Because of his inexperience in such a high-profile race, never exposed to the roar of spectators and the clamor near the paddock, everything depends on his composure before the race. He is highly capable of a blowout monster performance here as he goes further but he may just need this highly competitive conditioner for the more advantaged spot in the Travers.
I suspect my play here highly depends on a prancing/composed Extra Anejo in the moments leading up to the bell. I will not place a bet unless I can use this horse on top. There isn't a chance of gambling on this race without Anejo on top in the tri & super. I couldn't do it. His chart is spectacular, and his raw potential is crazy good. If it's one race too soon, I'll back off, sit and watch, and I won't be upset if he doesn't hit that 9f Winner's Circle at Monmouth. Based on his light resume and inexperience in a high-profile race, he is still an easy board-hitter. Based on his killer chart, he is the top player.
If Extra Anejo is composed/prancing before the bell:
1st: Extra Anejo - Mage
2nd: Extra Anejo - Mage
3rd: Arabian Knight - Geaux Rocket Ride
4th: Arabian Knight - Geaux Rocket Ride - Tapit Trice
If Extra Anejo appears agitated, I'll sit it out and wait for the Travers.
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