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FAVORABLE EVIDENCE: Rain/Sloppy/Muddy
FIERCENESS
8/25/2023 Saratoga - Maiden Race - 6f Muddy Gate to Wire, Won by 11 lengths
CATCHING FREEDOM
2/17/2024 Fair Grounds - Risen Star - 8.5f Sloppy Rear up to 3rd place, surging late
DETERMINISTIC
3/2/2024 Aqueduct - Gotham Stakes - 8f Sloppy Midpack to 1st place - gain in late energy to win
DORNOCH
12/2/2023 Aqueduct - Remsen Stakes - 8.5f Muddy Gate to Wire Win, (but late energy declined even though he won)
7/29/2023 Saratoga - Maiden Race - 6.5f Sloppy Stalked Leads & Came in 2nd - Energy stayed even
HONOR MARIE
2/17/2024 Fair Grounds - Risen Star - 8.5f Sloppy Slow Rear to top of stretch, major late energy, 11th to 5th
10/29/23 Churchill Downs - Optional Claimer - 7f sloppy Late surge from 8th to 2nd. Uptick in late energy
JUST A TOUCH
3/2/2024 Aqueduct - Gotham Stakes - 8f Sloppy Stalked leads, held for 2nd, Great energy throughout, 97 beyer
1/27/2024 Fair Grounds - Maiden Race - 6f Sloppy Gate to Wire Win, 97 beyer
MYSTIK DAN - (Major Player if Derby track ends up sloppy or muddy)
2/3/2024 Oaklawn Park - Southwest Stakes - 8.5f Muddy Midpack to Win with best late beyer of 112 - major late speed
RESILIENCE
2/17/2024 Fair Grounds - Risen Star - 8.5f Sloppy Held even energy on lead tier, loss by only 3.5 lengths to favorite
SIERRA LEONE
2/17/2024 Fair Grounds - Risen Star - 8.5f Sloppy Rear to First, High energy late boost, late beyer 99
12/2/2023 Aqueduct - Remsen Stakes - 8.5f Muddy Rear to First, High Midrace beyer, lost by a nose
TRACK PHANTOM
2/17/2024 Fair Grounds - Risen Star - 8.5f Sloppy Stayed Gate to Wire, came in 2nd, loss by only 1/2 length
10/29/2023 Churchill Downs - Maiden - 8f Sloppy Stayed Gate to Wire, came in 2nd, loss by only 1/2 length, same
UNFAVORABLE EVIDENCE: Rain/Sloppy/Muddy
FIERCENESS
10/7/2023 Aqueduct - Champagne Stakes - 8f Sloppy Compromised Break, Toss Race, Not Weather Related
COMMON DEFENSE
2/3/2024 Oaklawn Park - Southwest Stakes - 8.5f Muddy Stagnant in 7th thru 5th - no movement, lost by 17 lengths
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
12/2/2023 Aqueduct - Remsen Stakes - 8.5f Muddy Lead Tier then loss of significant late energy, loss by 16 lengths
JUST STEEL
2/3/2024 Oaklawn Park - Southwest Stakes - 8.5f Muddy Held good energy for 2nd but was 8 lengths behind winner
10/29/2024 Churchill Downs - Optional Claimer - 7f Sloppy Held position for 3rd, retreating foes, 8 lengths behind winner
NEVER COMPETED ON A SLOPPY TRACK
CATALYTIC
ENDLESSLY
FOREVER YOUNG
ENCINO
STRONGHOLD
T O PASSWORD
WEST SARATOGA
Breeding: Historically Perfect Configurations (For Win)
Advantaged with Normal Fast Pace. These are the ones with inherited excessive speed with compatible stamina to endure a more balanced distribution of their energy throughout the 10f.
Fierceness
DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.83 Mares = 5-6-6-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 17-20-19
Just Steel
DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80 Mares = 9-4-6-9-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.22 Triads = 19-19-19
Resilience
DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50 CD = 0.83 Mares = 2-12-4-13-2 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.95 Triads = 18-29-19
Society Man
DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75 Mares = 4-8-2-13-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.72 Triads = 14-23-20
T O Password
DP = 2-0-6-2-0 (10) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.20 Mares = 6-5-5-12-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-22-21
Tapit Line, but still configured correctly in balance:
Catching Freedom
DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 0.90 Mares = 5-5-7-6-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-18-18 (Tapit)
Just a Touch
DP = 3-6-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.75 Mares = 12-2-3-5-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.21 Triads = 17-10-16 (Tapit)
Breeding: 10f+ Capability but not Historically Correct (for Win)
Advantage heightens with much faster pace than norm for win. Historically, these are board hit configurations with normal fast pace. More stamina dominant to withstand their endurance but not with the extra inherited speed as those above.
Style and breeding lean stamina but High 36 points is bonus:
Honor Marie
DP = 9-11-15-1-0 (36) DI = 3.24 CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 4-3-6-4-9 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-13-19
Stamina dominant, slower lead tier style:
Dornoch
DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 Mares = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19
Track Phantom
DP = 1-2-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50 Mares = 7-6-6-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 19-19-19
Scale leans greater and tilts to stamina side:
Forever Young (on the cusp)
DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83 Mares = 7-3-6-6-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-15-19
Mystik Dan
DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.50 Mares = 4-5-5-12-0 Speed = 9 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.06 Triads = 14-22-17
Sierra Leone
DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 Mares = 5-3-5-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-14-19
Domestic Product
DP = 0-2-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.50 Mares = 8-4-4-11-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 16-19-21
West Saratoga (on the cusp)
DP = 2-3-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70 Mares Profile = 8-3-2-9-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.84 Triads = 13-14-18
Scale is even and balanced. Not dominant on either side:
Endlessly
DP = 5-4-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.72 Mares = 7-7-4-7-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 18-18-18
Breeding: Configurations Incorrect (For win and board hit)
Deterministic
DP = 3-14-5-0-0 (22) DI = 7.80 CD = 0.91 Mares = 7-6-3-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-16-16
No More Time
DP = 2-3-11-0-0 (16) DI = 1.91 CD = 0.44 Mares = 6-9-4-7-2 Speed = 15 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.67 Triads = 19-20-13
Stronghold
DP = 2-4-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67 Mares = 10-4-2-8-4 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.44 Triads = 16-14-14
Catalytic
DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.60 Mares = 10-5-2-7-10 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.93 Triads = 17-14-19
Encino
DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60 Mares = 7-4-3-8-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.91 Triads = 14-15-17
Specific Pertinent Workouts - Good Signs with Breeding & Style
Endlessly 4/6/24 Churchill 4f 49.60 Proper track and surface
4/13/24 Churchill 4f 49.00 consistent work
Honor Marie 4/7/24 Churchill 4f 47.80 excellent for rear runner with 10f+
4/14/24 Churchill 4f 48.80 consistent fast early work
4/25/24 Churchill 5f 59.20 Bullet. Worked with a sprinter. Restrained & Passed. Excellent.
Fierceness 3/22/24 Palm Beach 4f 47.43 on point with style
4/19/24 Palm Beach 5f 1:00.50 Smooth. Straight. Video posted in thread.
Catching Freedom 4/05/24 Churchill 4f 48.40 Good for Tapit Boy
4/13/24 Churchill 4f 48.00 Consistent fast Workout, showing speed side
Resilience 3/30/24 Payson 4f 48.40 on point with style
Society Man 3/22/24 Belmont 4f 47.88 excellent for breeding (Good Magic & Mares)
4/20/24 Churchill 4f 48.20 consistent with proper track.
Mystik Dan 4/13/24 Churchill 4f 48.00 fastest 4f breeze for him to date
4/20/24 Churchill 5f 59.40 fastest 5f breeze for him to date
Just Steel 4/20/24 Churchill 8f 1:40.00 Lukas means business. Stamina training.
Just a Touch 4/20/24 Churchill 4f 48.20 First work at CD. Bit faster than works at Fairgrounds.
Dornoch 4/20/24 Churchill 4f 48.20 More consistent with breeding. Better time for stalking.
Specific Pertinent Workouts - Bad Signs with Breeding & Style
Domestic Product 4/6/24 Payson 4f 48.60 performs better when slow early, fast late
Domestic Product 3/30/24 Payson 4f 48.40 doesn't match last two good races in style
Dornoch 3/30/24 Palm Beach 4f 47.24 Too fast. Did not translate to Blue Grass on 4/6
Track Phantom 4/7/24 Churchill 5f 1:02.00 Slow for Lead Tier style
Stronghold 4/20/24 Santa Anita 4f 46.60 Insane. SA bias but possible lunatic lead signal?
Resilience 4/18/24 Churchill 4f 50.20 Slow work for lead tier runner.
St. Simon Percentages - Top Percentages (depicts excessive stamina, double digits is good)
This is why the configurations of Encino, Endlessly, Track Phantom and possibly T O Password would have been stand-outs for a 12f Belmont Stakes. This is why Fierceness stands out for the Kentucky Derby, excessive on both sides of the scale.
Encino 62.98% 2.33 Tilts mid-range index to stamina.
Endlessly 39.45% 2.60 Tilts mid-range index to stamina.
Fierceness 35.15% 5.00 Magnificent Balance Speed/Stamina. Historically Correct. Stand-out.
T O Password 30.47% 1.00 Excessive stamina.
Track Phantom 19.34% 2.20 Tilts mid-range index to stamina.
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