The Derby Road Begins

Mistakes are brutal. Punishing reminders that simply linger weekend after weekend.

No, I have not made a full recovery from the blunder in this past Travers Stakes.

Its affect is harsh, especially when you can easily go through the archives and re-read every analysis on a specific horse and wonder how could you possibly forget about everything you saw and wrote about for 9 straight months.

Last year, the top two DHC Kentucky Derby players from the very beginning were Dornoch and Fierceness.

...They were the top 10f Players...

...With perfect running styles...

...On a fast track bias...

...So how could one be so easily bypassed for the win in August?

They say don't beat yourself up over one race but it is extremely difficult to consider such a decline in mental aptitude! I can't forget, and in hindsight, it gets even worse. Pace and Bias. Pace and Bias.

How could I have overlooked such a major tell in one of the coolest races of the year???

Fast pace, it's Dornoch. Moderate pace and Fierceness reserves his energy and perseveres. Two plus two equals four.

That's Handicapping 101.

Choose the real players from the beginning, stick with them, understand their advantages under the different scenarios and strike when the iron is hot.

If you think that my mistakes get brushed under the rug, they don't. Each one stays as a harsh reminder that everything always comes full circle eventually. You can not beat this game if you aren't willing to dissect every little nuance, both good and bad, admit to it and project it all straight to the next round.

Today we stand at the starting line to the 2025 Kentucky Derby, 10f Belmont, Haskell and Travers. As in years passed, the future stars will get pointed out and the pretenders will be called out. The hype will persist for the speedy milers and the well-bred ones who go home in defeat will absolutely show up when it counts - at the 10f distance.

There is a lot more to it then simply identifying a set of perfect chef and mare configurations. You must make a correlation to the horse's outward attributes to those numbers to find out exactly what he is all about.

A fast gate to wire win will imply a vast array of different things as it relates to his configurations and what they mean for the future.

Take the Iroquois winner, Jonathan's Way, for instance.

With the following configurations:

DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 7-3-6-8-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.96   Triads = 16-17-19

St. Simon: 27.75%

Hardly the best set of numbers for the Kentucky Derby. So many strikes on the surface:

Only 6 total chef points.

Chef Index at 2.00.

Mare profile does not have a major dominance in any category.

Triads do incline but are still slightly under par.

Chef CD at .50 and Mare's 19 in the last slot of the triads show stamina dominance.

But all of those negative points go against how he performed and what he showed on that track.

Everything that his numbers depict are basically opposite of what he displayed.

With these configurations, they read as a mid-pack runner with an "average outlook" in high speed ability. But he did the opposite. He gunned out of that gate and stormed to the lead. He traveled gate to wire against a couple of sprinters. He posted a 100 Equibase figure at the 8f distance.

That right there turned this guy's most probable 2 star rating up to a 4 star rating because it is obvious that the colt's true inheritance, both top and bottom, gives him 10f stamina. Had he come from the rear as his numbers depict and beaten a couple of retreating sprinters on the lead, that is exactly what his numbers would have ultimately garnered - 2 stars for the Derby.

Jonathan's Way is 2 for 2 but what is important here is his first win gave him an Equibase figure at 89 (which is great for a debut) and then it jumped all the way up to a 100 in his 2nd start while adding an additional 2 furlongs. This stands out more so because of his configurations, and in spite of it, again, they depict 10f+ capability.

The fact that this guy is sporting "All Weather Surface" numbers but was able to run on the lead, very fast, on a fast dirt track adds that additional element that points out a potential player moving forward.

This is not to say that he is one yet, but it offers another dimension to the colt as we move along the trail. We can't dismiss him as easily as most every other prior Iroquois Winner from the past.

Number combinations are one thing, but what the horse does with those numbers is the key.

Let's look at another 2 year old that Dennis brought up on the other thread.

TAP INTO THIS Tapit - Superioritycomplex (Hard Spun)

DP = 5-11-16-6-0 (38) DI = 1.71   CD = 0.39

Mare Profile = 7-7-2-6-10   Speed = 14   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.82   Triads = 16-15-18

Gorgeous chef line, there is no doubt about that.

Mares take a back seat to Tapit, although they still offer a .82 index which is adding even more stamina to the mix.

Stamina configurations from his chefs with additional relentless stamina from Tapit and also from the mares. Easily a 10f+ runner.

These numbers obviously read as a rear runner with endurance to burn and "should" override any inherited speed. For this horse to stand-out as a Derby player, he would need to display an offset of natural speed because all of that 12f Belmont-Type stamina is the dominant factor.

He would need to run contrary to what his numbers show - just like Jonathan's Way.

But what does the evidence show:

Two races so far:

1st race: 6f Maiden: Ran from the rear (follows his numbers) Lost by 4 lengths. Posted an E figure of 80.

2nd race: 7f Maiden: Ran from the rear. Lost by 7-3/4 lengths. Posted an E figure of 69.

His efforts were not necessarily bad, they do however depict a horse who appears to be running directly in line with his configurations. Stamina dominant that overrides his speed. This is opposite of what Jonathan's Way did with his configurations which are basically travelling in the same route as Tap Into This.

Now, if this guy was a lead tier runner, depicting speed - that would be a completely different story. The endurance factor would obviously still remain - but then he would be outwardly showing that necessary speed side as well. We could then hope for the second coming of a Flightline. So far, he is definitely NOT on that same path.

Tap Into This does not have the speed to compete with Sprinters at the 6f and 7f distances. Not in his configurations and not in his mindset (determination). Not early. Not late. Not yet.

He needs major distance which does two things - One, it aligns with his breeding. Two, it affects those lead speedy types who he needs to peter out at the top of the stretch, which they normally do if they are distance limited.

Eventually, he will enter a race where he will capitalize off of retreating lead tier runners, but that is not going to happen too easily on the Derby road in the 9f and under distances. He lacks speed, both inbred and displayed, to compete. He showed no speed early, but importantly, no real speed late either. So far, he leans all the way to the right, just like his numbers. 100% stamina.

But here is the bigger tell. This guy is loaded across the board in his profile. DP = 5-11-16-6-0 (38). His inheritance runs the gamut from his chefs which should easily show balance in his performances in both speed and stamina. So far, it has not. So far, he is favoring that Tapit factor. This could change as he matures, but as a young impressionable boy, he is all about Tapit, all about endurance, all about the stamina side. That never ever wins the Derby. Never.

Most could not touch him in the endurance department. This is the same exact dynamics of a horse like Honor Marie. Great numbers, running to those numbers, in need of severe distance, and giving every sign that he needs severe luck with that lead tier running out of gas.

Unfortunately for Tap Into This, the Belmont will be run at 10f yet again this year.

For the Kentucky Derby (and the Belmont for that matter) for Tap Into This to be considered a player with his gorgeous numbers, he would need to depict major speed against those numbers.

No matter how gorgeous a set of configurations lay out, you must attach the performances and workouts to them to see both sides of the equation. Always remember: Excessive Speed + Excessive Stamina = Derby Player.

Most "real" potential Derby players will have configurations that are dominant on one side, it is the other side of the coin that they must reveal all on their own. You need to see that evidence first hand with this type of build.

Then, of course, there are the potential Derby Players who reveal both sides of the equation in both their numbers and in their performances. These are the easy ones to define. Chef indexes in the 4.00 and over (major speed) plus mare numbers with huge point spreads in their scales (or packed triads) and indexes under approx .90 (major stamina).

Similar to Fierceness:

DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 9.00

Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-20-19

These are the ones who inherited the goods and need only display their attachment to it from day one.

Did they display that inherited speed in a 6f debut?

Did they stay consistent or even surpass that speed traveling 1 or 2 furlongs further in the next performance?

What is their running style, which side are they favoring? What type of track allowed them to go faster? Are their workouts coinciding with the speed side or the stamina side? So easy to define.

When it comes to the Mid-range category (2.00 to 2.90) and the Stamina category (Below 2.00) you must attach their performances to those "10f numbers" in order to gauge their heartiness for the Derby. Reliance on a faltering lead tier will only get you so far on the stamina side - there must be equal speed to balance it.