After studying thousands of Graded stakes races across the country, at different tracks, different biases and at different distances, sometimes a pattern emerges within the inherited configurations of both the chefs and the mares as to who holds advantage for that specific race. The accuracy in these combinations was astounding, but not 100% infallible. There are many outside influences that could occur in any race, be it a bad start, jockey interference, or even an advantaged horse who just plain didn't feel like running that day.
These combinations tell us the advantage of any single horse based on all of the particulars within a specific race. Every race will have it's own advantages based on the track, the distance, the weather and the bias of that specific day. A horse may have a major advantage at one track and lose it just as easily in his next race. Common sense tells us that the horse is not running the same race with the same competitors each and every time. He is not leaving the same gate. He may be running in a completely different state on a different type of track. Therefore, each race must be taken individually. There are some superstars who are so gifted that they find favor on a multitude of surfaces and distances. There are some horses who are lucky enough to be placed in the proper races by their connections and unfortunately, there are some who are built for success but never find the proper spot. This is why some trainers stand above the rest. It is because they know their horse and they know which race(s) gives advantage to their charges.
DISTINGUISHING ADVANTAGE
How a horse is built for the specific bias of the track for that exact day trumps what he did in his previous. We can extract style, pace limits, previous advantages and even the determination of the horse but then we must project all the previous evidence to the specific bias of the new race. His previous performances will be affected by the new bias of the new track and understanding the capabilities that were inbred into the horse will point to the one who has the advantage, thereby giving us an advantage at the windows.
For the Breeders Cup races, we are looking at highly successful and talented horses. They wouldn't be there if they weren't. These races must be viewed from a different vantage point in order to distinguish talent vs. the specifics of the day. How they are built in conjunction to the bias that the track has been leaning is the only way. Breeding takes on a whole new meaning with those who are already proven successful at the distance.
Jack Christopher - Cody's Wish
Both of these horses have their distinct optimums and specific capabilities for the 8f distance. Jack Christopher will go off as the deserving favorite. But what if certain circumstances arise that turn his "perceived advantage" against him? How do you use the numbers in conjunction with the bias to go for the odds if he loses that advantage? How do you even know if he lost that advantage before the bell?
As a good and recent example, the Pennsylvania Derby held quite a few stellar 9f runners but only one held the clear advantage. Based on the Past Performance sheets in order to gather evidence of each of their specific assets allows us to project it to the new bias. Cyberknife's breeding and pace structure was against him from what he had at Monmouth in the Haskell and it was incorrect to carry it over to Parx. The 6-1 Tawny Port held zero advantage on that specific speedy bias. Taiba had the clear advantage in that race because of his Santa Anita home base and how that easily transferred onto the Parx track. Looking at what circumstances led to the success of the horse at one track and how it relates to the next track is information that you must capture before the bell goes off. Of course, at the moment, we have no idea what the bias will be at Keeneland on November 5th, but we can start to formulate some idea as to what we should look for and be aware of while gathering information from the day before - Friday's races on the 4th. You must know how the track is playing in relation to each of these highly gifted Breeders Cup runners. One of them will capitalize off of the bias.
Jack Christopher and Cody's Wish will certainly be the two main players on everyone's list. One will be running up front and one coming from the rear. There can only be one winner. Based on the bias of Keeneland's track on that day will see which one has the advantage. It will be one or the other who captures the right bias, both cannot capitalize off of the same bias based on their style. Jack has 9.9f in him and Cody has 10.2f. Both can sustain wicked speed down the stretch.
What happens if Jack doesn't get his 2nd position behind the lead speed? Who will take that lead and does he have the stamina to take it wire to wire? How does he run if he doesn't get that fast track? What if its raining? In all reality, Jack is surely the best and most accomplished here but circumstances could twist in such a way that gives him something he has never seen before. Who would capitalize if that were to occur?
The idea of another taking command over those two at the wire seems ludicrous at the moment but nothing in racing is ever set in stone. The right competitor with the right conditioning and the PROPER PLACEMENT could explode if conditions were to present themselves.
SIMPLIFICATION
DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20
Mare Profile = 2-11-4-11-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 17-26-18
Optimum 10.3f (?)
This horse belongs in the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile, not the Classic. He has no chance against Flightline or Epicenter. He is going nowhere against Country Grammer, Olympiad and Life is Good. His spot this year is at the Keeneland mile with at least a fighting chance to capture something. Between his past performance sheet and his breeding, all evidence points directly to it based on where his pace has taken him in every race since April. He is not a 10f runner but his incredible determination continues to see to it that he grabs his minor piece. This cycle has prevented this horse from being placed in races that he was built to win. It may be too late at this point, but there is a strong possibility that this guy will finally explode on a track and a distance that was meant for him. His 1.22 chef index is whole-heartedly deceiving. He is highly influenced by Not This Time and his past performance sheet gives all the evidence in the world that he belongs in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He is not Epicenter. He does not carry that type of stamina but he is continually placed in races that he simply isn't built for with minor board-hits and purses.
The one time where his full stamina would have presented some type of evidence is in his first maiden on AWS. He failed on that surface and then exploded on the speedy track bias at 6f by 16 lengths, acting like a sprinter. This is Not This Time's over-the-top speed influence. His best performances came at distances between 6f and 8.5f on a fast bias. That is where he belongs. It was always his exceptional determination that saw to it that he could compete late at distances that he was not built for but the fact remains, under 9f and this horse has the ability to win, not just place on the board. He is built with exceptional speed from his sire's line and he gravitates much greater to the 11 in the intermediate slot of his mare's profile as opposed to the 11 in the Solid slot. The mare's influence in the triads allows him to sustain longer but the gravitation is on the left side of the Classic distance. If given the proper training to enhance his desired 8f speed and coupled with his major will and determination, this horse could explode at Keeneland in the Dirt Mile, regardless of bias. Fast bias and he runs the way he was built to run. Harder bias and his past performances prepared him to sustain at the "shorter" 8f. If they put him in the Classic, he barely gets a nod for 4th place. If they put him in the Dirt Mile, he has a shot to shine.
Prior to April 4th on a fast dirt surface, Simplification's "sprinting" performances between 6f and 8.5f were magnificent. The change began at 9f in the Florida Derby. This is where he was still able to compete for the minor purses but he lost his sprinting advantage, that which he was built to do. His conditioning leading up to this point would see to it that his 8f sprint would be much easier and highly conducive to whatever that bias would hold. It's all in his PP's and his chart. The Dirt Mile at Keeneland Race Track is where Simplification belongs.
When looking at numbers for the Breeder's Cup races, it is so important to match them to the exact past performances and align them with the bias. This is not looking at 2 year olds and determining future capability with blinders on. This is the Breeders Cup and we already have the evidence from highly accomplished competitors. What will set them all apart is which one gains an upper hand through the track surface. Just because a horse took advantage of one surface in a previous race does not mean it will translate to the next.
The last 4 editions of the Dirt Mile, straight down the line, were won in gate to wire fashion. Life is Good, Knicks Go, Spun to Run, and City of Light. In 2013 and 2014, Goldencents took it both times traveling gate to wire. So, in 12 editions, lead speed held for half of the races. Jack Christopher does not take the lead, he sits just off it. The other half of the time, it was won by mid-pack and rear runners. (Another spot that Jack does not prefer) This is because it was run on different tracks with different biases each time. We are looking at DelMar, Santa Anita, Churchill and Keeneland. As a matter of fact, the 2 times it was run at Keeneland, Knicks Go went to the lead and took that trophy, the other time, Liam's Map came from Mid-pack. Goldencents traveling up on the lead at Santa Anita may have faltered in that same spot if it was run at Churchill Downs. Knick's Go holding all of that stamina in his back pocket at Keeneland on the lead may have not played in the same manner at DelMar.
In reality and based on the history of the Dirt Mile, the style of Jack Christopher does not match the winners of this race. It actually coincides with Simplification and Cody's Wish. At the moment, this is where it stands but we do not know the specific bias yet so this is extremely premature. It also seems plausible that Jack could in fact take the lead depending on the entries.
In relation to the history of this race, Jack Christopher holds a 50% chance of holding on to the lead (if he takes it) and Cody's Wish holds a 50% chance of coming from the back and taking the trophy. Out of all of the Breeders Cup races over the November weekend, the Dirt Mile is 101% bias oriented and that can only be ascertained from Friday's races and the early Saturday races. The point is, don't marry the obvious favorite too prematurely when it comes to this particular race. You never know if a wild card might be placed in a race that he is truly built for.
Comments