The Power of Our Numbers

Bullard Wins the Bob Hope Stakes

The Derby Future Pool One Article posted back on October 29th has yielded a couple of very good early 5 star ratings and hopefully some of you grabbed those fantastic odds. Let's take a look and see where they are at right now and where they are heading.

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Bullard closed Pool One at the end of October at 99-1. The son of Gun Runner stood out like a sore thumb back in September with his short 6f debut win at DelMar as it aligned with his configurations and turn of foot. Easy 5 star rating at the time based on massive stamina and incredible late speed.

BULLARD  Mike McCarthy Gun Runner 60-1

DP = 3-3-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.64 ANZ = 3.50

Mare Profile = 2-8-5-11-4   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.71   Triads = 15-24-20

Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Closed at 99-1

Two weeks after Pool One closed, Bullard captured the winning trophy in the Bob Hope Stakes, coming from off the pace while traveling on a huge lead tier speed bias. This guy has both fast dirt and AWS advantage and he will be the ultimate star if eventually entered into the Jeff Ruby Steaks. This speaks volumes for one who posts wins at DelMar.

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Patch Adams closed at 94 to 1 after Pool One. At the time, he had one 6f race under his belt in which he took home a 3rd place trophy. He was given 5 Stars because of his perfect Kentucky Derby Configurations, his style of running, and his sire, Into Mischief.

PATCH ADAMS  Brad Cox Into Mischief 99-1

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 5.00

Mare Profile = 4-7-5-11-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.83   Triads = 16-23-20

Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Closed at 94-1

Knowing perfectly well that the 6f contest of his debut race did not necessarily align with his build, exactly one month to the day after Pool One, Patch Adams broke his maiden at Churchill Downs, against a full field of 13 travelling 7f. Each added distance going forward, he will get better and better.

He posted a 102 Bris Speed figure while stalking the swift pace.

The call figures for the race: 22.51 45.14 1:08.60 Final Time: 1:20.77

This horse almost broke the 2012 track record posted by Groupie Doll - 1:20.44.

He would have easily broken it but he was geared down with a 10 length demolition of his peers.

This guy is built for the Derby and we snagged him in Pool One.

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Authentic Strike, who is trained by Rodolphe Brisset was given a 5 star rating even though he came in 9th place in the Iroquois Stakes back in September. He found himself way off the pace in the early stages of that race which was in complete opposition to his gate to wire debut win at Ellis Park. It was also in opposition to the layout of his numbers.

AUTHENTIC STRIKE  Rodolphe Brisset Authentic 30-1

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 5-5-7-9-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.79   Triads = 17-21-22

Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Closed at 96-1.

That fact the he came back to win in gate to wire fashion at Keeneland two weeks prior to the opening of Pool One gave proof that the colt performs when running to his numbers. Perfect Kentucky Derby configurations with a lead tier style. His final odds after the close of Pool One at 96 - 1 was an absolute gift.

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The Other "Quiet" 5 Star Colts from Pool One:

All of the colts listed in this article are suited and built for the 10f of the Kentucky Derby. So far, Bullard, Patch Adams and Authentic Strike have given proof of following their configurations with evidence that they are running to their numbers. This, in turn, gives credence to their status for the Kentucky Derby and also to the 10f Belmont Stakes at Saratoga.

We could add the 5 star rated Sovereignty into the mix with those 3, but it would be safer to hold off for one more race.

Not all of these colts will wow us in the shorter races like the above three did. It would be nice but it will not always turn out that way. These horses are not built for 6, 7, 8f races, they thrive past the 9f mark when the others give way.

We can only track and be aware of what they are revealing as we await their performances. Of course, more will emerge, but as far as USA contenders who have at least hit Twinspires for mention, we are well on our way.

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BUILT Wayne Catalano Hard Spun 99-1

DP = 3-6-13-0-0 (22) DI = 2.38   CD = 0.55 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 4-3-6-9-6   Speed = 7   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.63   Triads = 13-18-21

Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Closed at 99-1

Last seen beating a full field of 13 at Keeneland back on 10/6 traveling 7f. This horse is filled to the brim with 10f+ stamina, and he kept up with stalking an extremely speedy lead runner. He is a type like Two Phil's and Dornoch both in how they are built and how they run. At the moment, he is at Fairgrounds and recently posted at 4f work in 49.60. Loving everything about this one.

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SOVEREIGNTY William Mott Into Mischief 25-1

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-22-16

Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Closed at 22-1

Last seen grabbing his Prep points in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs, breaking his maiden in a Graded Stakes race. This guy will come back to compete and workout when he turns three years old after January 1st. Important to be on the lookout as to where and how he begins his works. He will be pitted against Patch Adams and Praetor as sons of Into Mischief, but he stands out because of his rear style of running with his comparable configurations.

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RENDER JUDGMENT Kenny McPeek Blame 80-1

DP = 4-3-10-1-0 (18) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.56 ANZ = 2.67

Mare Profile = 6-7-3-7-10   Speed = 13   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.73   Triads = 16-17-20

Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Closed at 87-1

Not at all worried about his 5th place in the KY Jockey Club. Based on how he is built, 1-1/16 is still way too short for how he is built. Hard-pressed to beat speedsters going so short. But he did show progression in that race none-the-less, which mimics a horse like Country House in his earlier races. Same type. Won't have the early fanfare and fancy speed in these shorter races but when he hits those 9f to 10f races, he will be in perfect sync. He just has to get there.

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ROOKIE CARD Danny Gargan Adios Charlie 99-1

DP = 3-0-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 5.67

Mare Profile = 7-1-5-8-7   Speed = 8   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.74   Triads = 13-14-20

Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Closed at 99-1

Such gorgeous Derby numbers. Currently down at Palm Meadows where he recently posted a bullet 4f work in 48.05. Florida is the perfect spot to see which side this guy ultimately favors. Will he kick it into high gear on that bias following that 5.67 ANZ figure, or will he be a momma's boy geared towards maximum stamina? Successful on the lead at Aqueduct on that harder bias (but slow), we'll see how he gains in speed on a faster bias.

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PRAETOR Chad Brown Into Mischief 50-1

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 4-7-7-8-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 18-22-20

Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Closed at 99-1

This guy was last seen beating Sovereignty at Aqueduct back in September and has been MIA ever since. Hopefully he is simply on ice until the 3 year old campaign comes around.

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KALEA BAY Bob Baffert Authentic 30-1

DP = 5-1-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 1.10 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 6-6-6-8-4   Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.09   Triads = 18-20-18

Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Closed at 89-1

Spectacular Derby numbers but was eased in the Bob Hope Stakes in his last. He has since posted a 5f workout at Santa Anita on 11/30 5f in 1:00.40 (2/28) so we know he is fine to return to racing. What we don't know is what Baffert will eventually have in store for him.

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GETAWAY CAR Bob Baffert Curlin 30-1

DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 8-3-1-8-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.69   Triads = 12-12-19

Star Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Closed at 54-1

If this guy can manage to stay healthy, he has shown that he can keep steady running in line with the lead speed. Based on his mares configurations, this is very very promising for the 10f Derby. He is not a speedster like Baffert's others, he is stamina dominant and much better suited for traveling a distance.

He recently posted a 6f workout at Santa Anita in 1:12.80. This is excellent and regardless of Baffert's lead tier speed demons who find all the early hype, this is the guy who is much more suited for Churchill Downs (and Saratoga) traveling the 10f distance. For a Baffert boy, I like this guy alot.