Things have a way of sorting themselves out but if everything stays on the course that it is going, we are in for a real predicament.
Not this Time is making quite a name for himself at stud. In 2016, he was retired due to a soft tissue injury to his front leg after placing second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Arguably one of the best two year old prospects for the 2017 Kentucky Derby, Not This Time showed brilliance once he was let loose on an 8f track in his second maiden attempt, beating the field by 10 lengths, wire to wire at Ellis Park. That winning maiden sure does look familiar to a few of his son's exceptional style and power.
His next race in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at 8.5f, he decided to show off coming from the back of the pack.
Just like a Deja-vu of this year’s Holy Bull Stakes with Simplification, Not This Time also missed his break and was also forced to start at the back of the field against his preferred front running style. Exactly like his son, NTT ran 4 - 5 wide and came on with a vengeance late down the backstretch and into the far turn. Unfortunately, Simplification could not duplicate the same ending thunder like his sire and had to settle for 2nd behind White Abarrio. But there is no denying, like father, like son, in just about every way possible.
Not This time beat second place finisher, Lookin at Lee, by 8-3/4 lengths in the Iroquois, on a sloppy track no less.
In his final race, the Breeders Cup Juvenile, starting from Post 10 on a field which consisted of three players who went on to hit in the top 5 in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Not This time took his jockey, Robby Albarado and his leg injury over the finish line, missing by just a neck behind Classic Empire who went on to take 4th in the Derby. Practical Joke (5th in the Derby) and Lookin at Lee (2nd in the Derby) filled out the Juvenile superfecta.
Never to be seen again in competition, Not This Time was retired to stud at Taylor Made Farms in Kentucky where he remains to this day.
As the 2022 prep season gets underway, Not This Time has presented a full list of potential dominating monsters. Each one has the capacity to run the Derby distance and each one has his same preference for the lead. It is quite apparent that this non-chef sire has the absolute capability of passing through those incredible attributes due to the obvious consistency he has shown us so far. Each one though, has a completely separate set of contributors from the bottom of the chart which means that only the qualities through Not This Time can come from the top of the chart. It is the bottom of the chart, when combined with the top, that will shape each of his offspring separately.
Based on the preference of the style, it is also apparent that the top of the chart is the dominating force in these high quality performers so far but each one will have a different outcome. Since each one has the 10f distance and each wants that lead, we may find ourselves in quite a quandary when handicapping this year's Derby if they should all make a gate. In addition to that, there are also a few colts from other leading sires who are making a name for themselves on the lead, which could ultimately lead to 5, 6, 7 colts vying for the lead at Churchill. This would be suicide.
It was fortunate for us to witness Simplification miss his break and come from the back of the pack. That may sound selfish but it goes a long way when it comes to figuring out what the chaos of the Derby out of the gate may portend. Just like his sire who did the same against high quality and classy colts in the Iroquios, it does appear that it won't matter if at least one of his sons does not get his preferred spot. It is also apparent that running 5 wide (in his case anyway) points to an offspring who is using every bit of those genes. It also points to a strong possibility of success on a sloppy track as well if that trait is favored too.
Each son has a completely different combined set of numbers and so far we have perfect evidence that at least one favors their sire. All four have the potential to be players in the Derby this year but hopefully they all end up favoring the top of their charts. They have to or else disaster will strike on the front end. In order to make a few predictions, it is imperative to understand how the bottom of each of their charts will affect and combine with the top. Simplification's is the easy one because we have already seen that favoritism from his maiden, the MMM and the Holy Bull. We can only hope it has penetrated the others. Comparison of Not This Time's configurations against his son's is one way to do it. In all of the charts of these 5 sons, they are carrying much more stamina than he did because of the input from the chefs and reines contributions found through the immediate mare. Each one has a completely different reason for being advantaged in this year's Derby.
The other major quandary here is that there could be only one winner in the Kentucky Derby and only 4 can hit the board. Looking at potential, there is alot here with just this one sire. There are also many others who have shown champion qualities within their configurations from a vast amount of other competitors as well. If this continues, this Derby will be packed to the brim with 10f quality and class with most all of them wanting the lead. As far as Not This Time's offspring, each one has the 10f distance easily, each one prefers the lead and each one has something just a bit different that will combine with the top of their charts.
Now we will see how the breeding all pans out with reference to the sire. You will see how each one is different than the other based on the combinations found within each of their own charts. We will be able to see which one(s) have similar qualities, which one has more speed, more stamina, better balance, etc. Looking ahead, if all of these offspring make a gate in the Derby, we will need to start making serious choices and it may come down to either spreading them all or not using any of them. This sire has really put a major curveball into the outlook of the top players for this year's Derby and it's only February.
It may be surprising to know that sire Not This Time has the least amount of inbred stamina between his 5 sons listed below. All of that additional stamina that they are carrying is coming from the bottom of each of their charts through their separate contributors, mainly all from their fourth generation.
SIRE: NOT THIS TIME
Giant's Causeway - Miss Macy Sue (Trippi)
DP = 2-2-22-0-0 (26) DI = 1.36 CD = 0.23
Mare Profile = 5-9-2-11-2 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.24 Triads = 16-22-15
Combined Potential Distance: 10f exact
The attributes, AWD's, and balance of this sire stands alone based on the influences from Miss Macy Sue's line. His son's will have completely different additions that must be combined with Not This Time and Miss Macy Sue. You can not base anything on just the immediate sire, it is a combination of the entire chart that they hold, not just what he held. Appears Not This Time may have not had enough stamina to make it around the full oval if he made the Derby unless he ran right on the rail. In every case with these sons listed below, each gained a sum in extra endurance because of their immediate mare's line. They all have more inbred stamina than their sire.
NTT's Contributing Chefs:
The Chef in Red will be passed to his sons and will show up in their 2nd generation.
Chefs in Blue will still be passed to their 5th generation, but will not be presented in their numbers.
1st Generation: Giant's Causeway (C)
2nd Generation: Zero
3rd Generation: Zero
4th Generation: Northern Dancer (B,C) - Secretariat (I,C) - Blushing Groom (B-C) - Roberto (C) - Damascus (I,C)
Prominent Non-Chefs: Additional Speed from Storm Cat
(ANZ Index: 2.09)
St. Simon: 30.67% - Tie on top with Secretariat & Ta Wee (9.38) plus Northern Dancer, Nasrullah and Nearco
The Offspring:
SIMPLIFICATION
DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20
Mare Profile = 2-11-4-11-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 17-26-18
Mare: Simply Confection (Candy Ride)
Combined Potential Distance: 10.7f
Contributing Chefs:
1st generation: zero
2nd generation: Giant's Causeway (C)
3rd Generation: zero
4th Generation: Halo (B,C)
5th Generation: These sires are still present, however they will not show up in the numbers:
Northern Dancer (B,C) - Secretariat (I,C) - Blushing Groom (B-C) - Roberto (C) - Damascus (I,C)
and additional chefs: Fappiano (I,C) - Herbager (C,S) - Hail To Reason (C)
Prominent Non-Chefs: Additional Speed from Storm Cat
(ANZ Index: 2.11)
St. Simon: Blushing Groom → Blanford
Mares Combination: Perfectly Balanced on the Scale. Even with Speed and Stamina at 10.7f. Obvious ability to run from anywhere on the track just like his father. Proof of ability to sustain speed running 4 and 5 wide in his last. Much room for improvement as he matures and showed he is holding a will and determination to be out front.
EPICENTER
DP = 0-0-9-1-2 (12) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.42
Mare Profile = 1-10-5-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.74 Triads = 16-23-18
Mare: Silent Candy (Candy Ride)
Combined Potential Distance: 12.6f
Contributing Chefs:
1st generation: zero
2nd generation: Giant's Causeway (C)
3rd Generation: zero
4th Generation: Sadlers Wells (C,S) - Ela Mana Mou (P)
5th Generation: These sires are still present, however they will not show up in the numbers:
Northern Dancer (B,C) - Secretariat (I,C) - Blushing Groom (B-C) - Roberto (C) - Damascus (I,C)
and additional chefs: Fappiano (I,C) - Herbager (C-S) - Habitat (B) - Busted (S)
Prominent Non-Chefs: Additional Speed from Storm Cat
(ANZ Index: 1.13)
St. Simon: 29.3%
Mare Combination: Mares dump additional stamina into an already packed up endurance chart. Display of incredible speed up front in his style is an amazing attribute. Mares heavily dominate in the 10/11/12f Classic center. St. Simon influence is extremely strong. His 4th generation adds the major stamina that his half-brothers did not receive: Sadler's Wells adds Classic (10-11-12f) and Solid (13-14-15f) and Ela Mana Mou adds Professional (16f+) to his configurations and pushes everything to the side of extreme endurance. He retains the strong influence through the top in excess speed and combines beautifully.
In Due Time
DP = 1-2-11-0-0 (14) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.29
Mare Profile = 3-7-3-11-3 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.80 Triads = 13-21-17
Mare: Sweet Sweet Annie (Curlin)
Combined Potential Distance: 11f
Contributing Chefs:
1st generation: zero
2nd generation: Giant's Causeway (C)
3rd Generation: Smart Strike (I,C)
4th Generation: Mr. Prospector (B,C)
5th Generation: These sires are still present, however they will not show up in the numbers:
Northern Dancer (B,C) - Secretariat (I,C) - Blushing Groom (B-C) - Roberto (C) - Damascus (I,C)
and additional chefs: Raise a Native (B) - Best Turn (C)
Prominent Non-Chefs: Additional Speed from Storm Cat
(ANZ Index: 2.27)
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Mares Combination: They dump the most additional stamina into the mix below Epicenter (Index .80) with 4 points leaning to the endurance side. Between the addition of Smart Strike and Mr. Prospector's appearance in his numbers, he gets all the way to 11f with additional Intermediate speed. This is a very very nice set-up. Unfortunate his top does not line-breed directly to St. Simon, but he does have it just underneath his top.
Chasing Time
DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20
Mare Profile = 3-11-5-10-3 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 19-26-18
Mare: Race Hunter (Dixie Union)
Combined Potential Distance: 10.5f
Contributing Chefs:
1st generation: zero
2nd generation: Giant's Causeway (C)
3rd Generation: Zero
4th Generation: Northern Dancer (B,C)
5th Generation: These sires are still present, however they will not show up in the numbers:
Northern Dancer (B,C) - Secretariat (I,C) - Blushing Groom (B-C) - Roberto (C) - Damascus (I,C)
and additional chefs: Seattle Slew (B,C) - Mr. Prospector (B,C)
Prominent Non-Chefs: Additional Speed from Storm Cat and Additional Stamina from Street Cry
(ANZ Index: 1.77)
St. Simon: 25.78%
Mares Combination: The mares contribute more speed which is balancing him closer to Simplification and away from Epicenter. His balance is a negative 1 which is never the best sign, however, the speed that he was given aligns nicely with his chefs. Even without his chefs, the mares are packed enough to balance him nicely across the board.
Howling Time
DP = 1-1-12-0-0 (14) DI = 1.33 CD = 0.21
Mare Profile = 4-10-4-8-4 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.10 Triads = 18-22-16
Mare: Werewolf (Arch)
Combined Potential Distance: 10.2f
Contributing Chefs:
1st generation: zero
2nd generation: Giant's Causeway (C)
3rd Generation: Zero
4th Generation: Roberto (C) - Danzig (I-C) - Mr. Prospector (B,C)
5th Generation: These sires are still present, however they will not show up in the numbers:
Northern Dancer (B,C) - Secretariat (I,C) - Blushing Groom (B-C) - Roberto (C) - Damascus (I,C)
and additional chefs: Hail to Reason (C) - Princequillo (I,S) - Alydar (C) - Raise A Native (B)
Prominent Non-Chefs: Additional Speed from both Storm Cat and Hussonet
(ANZ Index: 2.67)
St. Simon: 25.01% through Nearco
Mares Combination: Negative 2 points on the speed/stamina balance is not good against the rest here. His triads dip down a bit too far in the 3rd slot. He is at 10.2f and with a full field of 20, that may just be cutting it a bit close against both his half-brothers and others in the gate. With all of this talent right on this page coupled with many other heavy-hitters out there, this guy would be the least favorable at the moment for the Derby. If he runs true his numbers though, he just may end up being the fastest under 10f after he matures. He has 4 additional sires contributing excess speed into his mix - Danzig, Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat and Hussonet.
Outlook: With all of this talent and built in class, the way these young guys are running so far, the numbers and the charts must be nit-picked to death. There are many other talented and packed up charts out there as well and we certainly can't use all of them. There are 5 prospects listed in this article alone who have the #1 criteria for the Derby - 10f capability. Additionally, if they do all somehow stake claim on a Derby gate, they may just beat each other down fighting for the lead. If that's the case, we toss them all!! (well, maybe not Simplification and Epicenter!)
Within the group, Epicenter is the one that stands out with his chart. He has the highest amount of inbred stamina AND he is favoring the speed, the style and the determination of his sire Not This Time. Basing everything on these charts and the performances TO DATE, my brain is saying Epicenter but my heart is saying Simplification. Both are more than fine for the distance of the Derby. One gains advantage with his crazy endurance capability, the other gains favor through more speed and better balance. Epicenter is also holding 29% top line-breeding to St. Simon. Simplification, of course, has St. Simon but he is not the top. At the moment, there should be no need to choose, however, if a colt named Messier is given a gate, then Epicenter will be the one who may be better suited to withstand the speed duel that will ensue with all of the lead heavy-hitters both here and on our lists. He would be the one to carry on to fight against those undoubtedly coming from behind in that scenario.
Between Chasing Time, Howling Time and In Due Time (hell, I'm getting confused with all of these TIMES!) it would appear that Howling Time is the least advantaged for the Derby at the moment and In Due Time is better configured out of the three. Since it is only the beginning of February, we are afforded plenty of time to see how they each react to their charts. There is a possibility that it turns out that we cannot toss any or we could be tossing them all. Since all of them lean to stamina, there must be consistency with speed against real competitors. Simplification and Epicenter are well on their way, now we will have to see what happens next.
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