Continuation from "The Second Tier - Part One"
VERY PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ON THE SECOND TIER HORSES and a FEW THINGS TO CONSIDER.
Two Phil's - DP = 2-7-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = 0.55
Mare Profile = 3-4-8-8-5 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.69 Triads = 15-20-21
Ability to conquer a variety of track biases with consistent speed. This horse ran the Jeff Ruby stakes in a faster time than Animal Kingdom in the Spiral. Two Phil's was only 3/4ths of a second below the track record set by Ball Four in 2006. He has competed on 6 different tracks with 4 different biases, with only one of those efforts deemed mediocre. This was when he went off at 70-1 at Keeneland in the Breeders Futurity and he was 4 to 5 wide most of the race. He then came back to demolish a group of high-end competitors on a SLOPPY CHURCHILL track which defies logic and points to a beast.
Highly stamina dominant, possibly the highest on the field at the moment (we need to wait until final line-up to know for sure) and his speed rivals and/or surpasses a few of the first-tier hotshots. This is a "displayed" combination that is highly successful in the Derby even though the 2.64 index is very tough for a win. Of course, when you show power like he has, not only have these "mid-range" types hit the board, but they have taken the roses. Country House, Animal Kingdom, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Street Sense, Spectacular Bid, etc. had all broken the mold based on the intense amount of inbred stamina which easily conquers the distance, coupled with the amazing ability to power along with untouchable speed. Two Phil's exhibits the exact same qualities along with perfection in the mare's entire line. The St. Simon connection is unmatched on the field as well. This horse is massive.
Reincarnate - DP = 2-3-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70
Mare Profile = 6-5-5-7-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.79 Triads = 16-17-20
Although this horse has never thrown a bad race yet, he has obviously heightened his game away from Santa Anita and DelMar. The reason is because he is the son of Good Magic, tilted much further to the stamina side in spite of the 3.00 index. His performance in the Rebel, third behind Confidence Game, was very well run. He was checked, shuffled way back and interfered with by Bourbon Bash. He put in a very nice late run, showing his ability to be able to take the punches with a 20-horse starting gate without worry and with ability to recover. He has the distance, the training on a speedy surface and displayed ability to survive the hits.
Derma Sotogake - DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75
Mare Profile = 8-2-5-9-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-16-20
Derma is not only the highest ranked 3-year-old Derby contender on the field, he is the also the highest ranked 3-year-old in the world in the most recent published Longine's World's Best Racehorse between January and April of this year with a 118 rating. Ranked #24 below the #1 Equinox, also from Japan.
As they stand, his configurations read poorly for the Derby, with an optimum at 9.3f. But this is extremely deceiving after much further review. When adding in the prominent non-chefs, most importantly, Sunday Silence, his ANZ number plummets to a 1.67 with a new chef CD at .38 as opposed to the higher .75 Roman Number. This turns that optimum all the way up to 10.2f inbred capability. While his configurations realistically have 3 strikes, including bottom of the speed spectrum with the 3.00, a mediocre 4 total points in the profile, and the off triads, when adding in all other components, his advantage skyrockets. If recognizing Sunday Silence, his index falls from the speed category (3.00) all the way down to the Stamina Category (1.67) and this is where he turns everything up by 10 notches.
Derma ran the 1-3/16th UAE Derby in 1:55.81. The standing record, Mendelssohn in 1:55.19. Keep in mind, Mendelssohn was a turf, AWS and dirt player. Derma is a fast dirt player. His first two races were on turf and he showed zero interest. He thrives on fast dirt with the capability of going the distance. Barring extreme weather, Derma Sotogake is a huge option and one that will be highly investigated.
Hit Show - DP = 2-5-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57
Mare Profile = 6-2-4-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.69 Triads = 12-12-18
Midrange colt similar to Two Phil's with his chef's scale, but huge difference with the balance from the mares. He is very evenly balanced and screams Belmont Stakes. This of course, gives him complete ease with the 10f distance. He has been very consistent along the trail and his displayed speed and energy has continued to rise. Son of Candy Ride with second generation Tapit on the bottom of his chart. He is well bred for the task, has hit the board or won in each of his five races on four separate tracks. Tough proposition for the Derby Winner's Circle, but certainly has the muscle to be a player underneath. 2.50 Tapit offspring generally find a very hard time in the Derby. The stamina side gets tilted to the far extreme.
Rocket Can - DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75
Mare Profile = 5-7-7-8-2 Speed = 12 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.26 Triads = 19-22-17
One of the best on the field in energy distribution with a will and determination to win. Advantaged 4.33 speedy chef index with Tapit in his second generation. He will continue with ease as others begin to retreat. He disliked the Saratoga bias as a youngster and once released from there, he has performed well at Gulfstream, Oaklawn and most importantly, Churchill Downs. His beyers may not be flashy, but he is steady with unmatched energy distribution regardless of pace. A very strong commodity to hold in the Kentucky Derby.
Confidence Game - DP = 2-3-10-1-0 (16) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.38
Mare Profile = 2-2-7-4-9 Speed = 4 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.45 Triads = 11-13-20
This horse has stamina overdrive, barely any elite inherited speed from either the top or the bottom, but his win in the sloppy Rebel was very impressive with his credentials. The race had a very fast opening quarter due to the sealed surface pushing the lead speed faster, after which the top two disintegrated. Appears the Candy Ride factor may be peaking at the right time and if the lead speed in this year's Derby takes a dive, this horse has every shot at hitting that board. Here is his latest 8f workout.
Mage - DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57
Mare Profile = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19
Impressive mare set-up in the mid-range category. Good Magic son who did very well running against the grain at Gulfstream. The 10f distance is easily here and his ability to work that fast bias will translate directly to Churchill. With only 2 races under his belt before the prestigious Grade One Florida Derby, this horse came just one length behind the Derby Favorite, Forte, traveling only 9f. That distance is way under his optimum. Next at 10f, he has the built-in ingredients to fly right past him down that stretch. He is inbred with a ton more stamina than Forte and he relished a fast bias. Truly gives one something to think about.
Blazing Sevens - DP = 3-6-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.75
Mare Profile = 5-6-6-6-9 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.73 Triads = 17-18-21
His performances so far do not match his advantaged numbers, although his mares profile is stifling the speed a bit. He has the distance but both displayed speed and mare profile alignment is slightly off for a fast track at Churchill.
This chart, updated from a couple years ago, shows the importance of looking deeper than the obvious. Do not believe for one second that this is a slam-dunk year with the top tier across the board.
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