Sierra Leone and Dornoch - The Remsen Stakes
THE RISEN STAR - Feb 17th, 2024 - Sloppy Sealed Track 9f
THE REMSEN - Dec 2nd, 2023 - Sloppy Sealed Track 9f
TRACK PHANTOM
DP = 1-2-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 7-6-6-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 19-19-19
Rating for the Derby: Drops to 3 stars
I want to begin with Track Phantom first. As stated in the Risen Star Notes article, his 4-star rating would drop or rise based on his final times on the lead. We needed to see how his chef line would react as he upgraded in distance.
From his 8.5f Lecomte Win:
As the distance went from 8.5f up to 9f, his lead times went in the opposite direction. He had to drop back with his pace in order to reserve energy for the additional distance. This is a sure sign that his 2.20 index keeps him flat or even downgraded with reference to speed at 10f. This will never do. Quite frankly, he should be dropped down to 2 stars for the Kentucky Derby.
He is stacked but also evenly balanced with his mares. His test was to distinguish whether or not he was in that "Two Phil's League" - He is not when it comes to speed in the 10f Kentucky Derby. Just look at the 2nd & 3rd lead calls between him in the Risen Star and Dornoch in the Remsen. No comparison. Hopefully Track Phantom still manages to grab a Derby gate - as he is completely even with Sierra Leone now with 55 points each. He is now an "EX - 4 star" colt who can easily be tossed.
CATCHING FREEDOM
DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 0.90
Mare Profile = 5-5-7-6-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-18-18 (2nd gen Tapit)
Rating for the Derby: Remains at 5 stars
This guy will retain his 5-star rating from the Future Pool One. It was make it or break it time for this guy and at the 9f mark, he showed heart and speed going from 8th position at the 2nd call to 1.75 lengths behind Sierra Leone at the wire. We needed to be hard on this guy because of the Tapit influence and his 5.67 index. We needed to see him grab 1st through 3rd on this stacked field and he accomplished it. He has the 10f distance and he exhibited strength in his highly favorable 5.67 index joined with it.
RESILIENCE
DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50 CD = 0.83
Mare Profile = 2-12-4-13-2 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.95 Triads = 18-29-19
Rating for the Derby: Enters with 4 stars
His numbers are 5 star without a doubt and his performance as a maiden winner against this group was also 5 stars but he's going to need to show yet one more progression off of this race. He passed one hurdle but he still tracked a very slow pace that he should have easily bypassed in the stretch.
There are 2 reasons why he stays upgraded even though Track Phantom drops in rating while beating him. The main reason is because Resilience's numbers scream Kentucky Derby with a fast (but normal) pace. Track Phantom's does not. The second reason is because of the track bias. He went from maiden to Grade 2 and it is extremely difficult to ascertain whether or not that track was too deep to match a fast wet bias. We need proof that he can use what he inherited on a track that aligns with a clean Churchill track against similar high class foes. We should easily get that proof in an upcoming prep.
This guy performed very well and there is absolutely no shame in coming 3.5 lengths behind Sierra Leone, one who was built the best for the 9f test. Resilience traveled on a shorter track than his numbers reveal to be his optimum. The track bias may or may not have had a hand in this loss, this is why we need to see him with the same classy group on a clean bias.
HONOR MARIE
DP = 9-11-15-1-0 (36) DI = 3.24 CD = 0.78
Mare Profile = 4-3-6-4-9 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-13-19
Rating for the Derby: Remains at 5 stars
You may be thinking why on earth would Honor Marie retain his 5 star rating with a 5th place in this race. The answer is simple. As stated in the Notes Article, this horse is much better suited for 10f than 9f. He is also pace dependent. The Risen Star was run at only 9f and the pace was dismal. Honor Marie is all stamina and would relish a 10f clean track with a heightened pace. That spells Kentucky Derby.
The problem we had talked about a few days ago still remains. He will have a harder time gaining his points to get a gate in the Derby because of this. If he can't pull it off prior to the end of the Prep road, he may actually become a fresh starter at Saratoga for the 10f Belmont. His 5 star rating will transfer to that race - if it is a clean track. There is also the 10f Travers that he is well suited for as well.
Regardless of his 5th place, the horse began his race in 11th position and started moving very very late, actually too late - remaining in 11th position until just after the 3/4 pole. It was only then that he made his move. He ran out of track at the 9f as was expected. He is an extreme late runner geared very well for the 10f mark.
MOONLIGHT
DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75
Mare Profile = 5-5-10-8-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.96 Triads = 20-23-22
Rating for the Derby: Drops to 4 stars
I need to make a quick mention of 9th place finisher, Moonlight. This previous 5-star horse needs to drop down to 4 stars because he wants absolutely no part of a wet, sloppy or muddy track. He has had to endure it 3 times in a row. Unlucky though he may be, his "manliness" is getting chopped down on a monthly basis. His numbers scream Kentucky Derby but there is something about loss after loss affecting his mentality that does not bode well. This is not his fault though. He wants a clean nice track to run on. This may potentially give great odds to us for one more shot along the road, but it must be void of one drop of moisture. We can then judge his mental state and if he can rise to his numbers on a clean track. If he pulls it off, the weather on Derby Day would also be very important for this particular guy.
SIERRA LEONE
DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 5-3-5-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-14-19
Rating for the Derby: Remains at 3 stars
I am sure that I will get a ton of pushback for keeping the winner of the Risen Star at a 3 star rating and the others he beat at a higher rating. That's okay, fire away, but there is always a method to my madness.
As stated in the Notes Article, this horse was built the best for the 9f (out of those with class and 10f breeding.) He is built for the 9f Haskell Stakes which coincided with this race. Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Moonlight, and Resilience all built for 10f. No matter how you slice and dice it, these are not Kentucky Derby numbers. Granted, last year we had a race that went completely against history and if he was running in that edition, well, maybe he would have had an advantage. Last year was a complete and total outlier and the chances of that happening again could not be the new norm. If it is, I will close up shop.
He did exactly what he should have done at this 9f distance. He even exceeded by running into very slow calls. A very good performance which again, foretells a great advantage in the Haskell, which he is built perfectly for.
Projecting this race, with Track Phantom's slow and unenduring lead and also against a maiden winner, he saw to it that his advantage stayed intact. He did very well, no doubt, but with faster fractions on a clean track at 10f, he does not necessarily align. He is closely related to Cyberknife and that is more in the 9f to 9.5f range - but very fast. This doesn't mean that he couldn't hit the board, but for a win, it is not written in his chart.
His win here catapults Dornoch (5 stars) even further. The way that Dornoch bypassed a surging Sierra Leone in the Remsen at 9f was breathtaking. His chart screams stamina dominance but he led the field and basically broke again near the finish line. Dornoch not only has 10f blindfolded, but he runs on the lead. With 20 horses in the gate, Dornoch will have tons of lengths as a head-start over one who has to circle the field or hope for a seam. It is also against one whose optimum is under.
In addition, comparing the final lead times between Track Phantom and Dornoch (at the same distance and basically the same bias), Sierra Leone would have never beaten Dornoch in the Risen Star. He would have been about 6 lengths short.
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