The Travers Stakes is a battle between Speed vs. Stamina. The race revolves around the lead pace, especially when Baffert has an entry. This year, Baffert saddles National Treasure who will be sure to follow the barn's trademark moves.
Baffert's Track Record
Over the last 10 years, Bob Baffert has filled a Travers gate in 6 editions with 7 horses. Every single time, he has attempted to go gate to wire.
2020 - Uncle Chuck Lead - Faltered at the 3/4 pole, came in 6th.
2019 - Mucho Gusto Lead - duel with Tacitus - Held for 3rd
2017 - West Coast Lead - Gate to Wire
2016 - Arrogate Lead - Gate to Wire and American Freedom - Stalked Arrogate and held for 2nd
2015 - Pharoah Lead - came in 2nd, behind 3/4 length.
2014 - Bayern Lead - Stopped running at the 1/2 mile mark. Last.
Baffert's obvious playbook connected two times with his lead taking it gate to wire. It is a given that he will attempt the exact same maneuver on Saturday. National Treasure will bolt for the lead and attempt to take it gate to wire. In the ultimate test of speed vs. stamina in the Travers, it will be National Treasure vs. three Tapit Descendants (stamina), two Good Magic Descendants (Stamina) and Forte.
Over the past 10 years, the fastest opening 1/4 (23.11) and 1/2 (47.26) happened in 2019. This was the year that Baffert's Mucho Gusto got into a speed duel with Tacitus on the front. This "faster" opening half resulted in the ultimate stamina horse, Code of Honor, to kick it in from the rear of the pack and overtake that loaded field.
In other words, there are four items of major importance for completing the puzzle of this years Travers and they revolve around National Treasure. This horse is the key to the entire race.
1) Does National Treasure's breeding give him a consistent pace at 10f on the bias of Saratoga?
2) Does National Treasure have the means to dictate a rational 23.30 to 23.60 opening quarter?
3) Can he distribute his energy the additional 1/16th from Preakness pace figures?
4) Is there another who will battle with him, forcing a much faster pace?
Breeding Types
What type of breeding thrives at the 10f at Saratoga in late August? Out of the last 10 winners, only one did not fit the proper Travers mold - West Coast. A Baffert clone from 2017 is the only outlier. Readable 10f elite stamina must be present whether it comes from the top speed contenders or the lower stamina contenders. There must be major stamina coming from one side or the other - or both.
2022 - Epicenter
DP = 0-0-9-1-2 (12) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.42 (major stamina)
Mares = 1-10-5-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.74 Triads = 16-23-18 (major stamina)
2021 - Essential Quality
DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.66 (32 total points, low CD, major stamina)
1st generation Tapit (major stamina)
2020 - Tiz the Law
DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75 (major speed)
Second generation Tapit and Tiznow (major stamina)
2019 - Code of Honor
DP = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = 0.00 (major stamina)
Mares = 2-10-2-13-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 14-25-20 (major stamina)
2018 - Catholic Boy
DP = 6-2-11-1-0 (20) DI = 2.08 CD = 0.65 (low CD, major stamina)
Mares = 7-5-5-5-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.80 Triads = 17-15-20 (weighted Professional, major stamina)
2017 - West Coast (outlier)
DP = 10-5-11-0-0 (26) DI = 3.73 CD = 0.96 (speed)
Mares = 8-4-1-6-9 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.84 Triads = 13-11-16 (moderate stamina)
2016 - Arrogate
DP = 6-25-7-0-2 (40) DI = 6.27 CD = 0.83 (40 total points, major speed and major stamina)
Mares = 4-6-4-7-9 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.62 Triads = 14-17-20 (major stamina)
2015 - Keen Ice
DP = 5-8-15-0-0 (28) DI = 2.73 CD = 0.64 (stamina)
Mares = 3-3-4-10-7 Speed = 6 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.46 Triads = 10-17-21 (over the top major stamina)
2014 - V.E. Day
DP = 5-4-16-1-0 (26) DI = 1.89 CD = 0.50 (major stamina)
Mares = 3-4-3-9-7 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.50 Triads = 10-16-19 (over the top major stamina)
2013 - Will Take Charge
DP = 6-26-8-0-2 (42) DI = 6.00 CD = 0.81 (42 total chef points, major speed and major stamina)
Mares = 5-5-4-3-9 Speed = 10 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.76 Triads = 14-12-16 (moderate stamina, mares minimal contribution)
With West Coast as the only outlier in the last 10 years, the words MAJOR Stamina appear with each and every winner, regardless of which end of the scale that their chefs reside. I would venture to repeat that West Coast was one of many Baffert charges who somehow disregarded his inheritance and found hidden stamina to prevail gate to wire at 10f. No need to press the issue.
2023 Contenders Numbers
Arcangelo
DP = 3-16-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60 CD = 0.92 (major speed)
Second generation Tapit (major stamina)
Forte
DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79 (moderate stamina)
Mare Profile = 11-2-5-1-11 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.04 Triads = 18-8-17 (subpar stamina)
Mage
DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 (low CD, Good Magic, major stamina)
Mare Profile = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19 (stamina)
Tapit Trice
DP = 5-15-11-1-0 (32) DI = 3.92 CD = 0.75 (32 total points, major speed, major stamina)
First generation Tapit (major stamina)
Disarm
DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 CD = 0.50 (low CD, major stamina)
Mares = 7-3-5-9-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.85 Triads = 15-17-20 (major stamina)
National Treasure
DP = 4-4-7-1-0 (16) DI = 2.56 CD = 0.69 (moderate stamina)
Mare Profile = 8-7-3-3-9 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.08 Triads = 18-13-15 (subpar stamina)
Scotland
DP = 3-6-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.61 (low CD, Good Magic, major stamina)
Mare Profile = 10-4-2-7-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.24 Triads = 16-13-15 (subpar stamina)
Based on the winning combinations of the past 10 years, the favorite, Forte, does not hold the ideal configurations for an outright win in this race. The best sets of numbers belong to Arcangelo and Tapit Trice. This does not mean that these two are the right top two picks but it does illustrate the fight between speed (Arcangelo) and stamina (Tapit Trice).
With Arcangelo and Tapit Trice, both are holding the proper high amount of speed along with major stamina. The best numbers for the contest. Between the two, it is Arcangelo who sits with an upper-hand though. When it comes to the breeding aspect, the extreme inbred speed with that 8.60 index, adding in Tapit and Arrogate, his chart stands above .
Disarm is also sitting with the proper Travers configurations.
Additionally, Arcangelo's configurations also find a very high advantage on the recent Saratoga bias. Based on the top three who hit the board in the 12f Belmont stakes - Arcangelo, Forte, Tapit Trice - it is very easy to conclude that Belmont's track was heavily speed biased and catered to the strengths of each. Saratoga has been mimicking that bias.
Finally, position on the field, running style, will play a very huge part as well based on the projected first two calls of National Treasure.
Part Two for the Travers Stakes will go in depth with full analysis, the answers to the questions concerning National Treasure and picks. The entire Travers race revolves around the opening two calls of the lead speed.
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