Two Year Olds - Release #1

WOOTTEN BASSETT

I decided to start a rolling article with some thoughts on a few two year olds as we near the Breeders Cup Juvenile races and onward to January 1st. If anyone happens to have one or two catch their eye along the way, please add to the thread below. I will add them to the next article. I would love to see our group participate this year. (Hop to it Brian!)

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THE FINGAL RAVEN (Ire)

We'll start with an overseas boy who is trained by one of the classiest horsemen abroad, Jamie Osbourne. It seems like ages since we've had the pleasure of watching one of his charges in the spotlight.

Back in 2013, a colt by the name of Toast of New York, burst through his 3rd maiden attempt at Wolverhampton and never stopped. After a gamely win in the 2014 UAE Derby, Toast of New York had a hard time in the Belmont Derby Invitational but then set his sights on the TVG Pacific Classic, taking home second place.

Up until that point, Toast was the only competitor who faced Shared Belief and did not look like an allowance runner against him. This, in turn, made him stand out for the Breeder's Cup Classic that year and Toast did not disappoint. He was a well-bred magnificent colt trained by one of Ireland's best.

This year, we may see Jamie's name in the spotlight once again. There is something truly special about the composition of this horse and based on Mr. Osbourne's statement, it may just turn out to be something real:

"Back in March, I thought he was the best two-year-old I've had since Toast of New York."

What is highly special is something about his configurations that need to be monitored through to the 2025 UAE Derby. Quite unusual, which is the reason for the high pique of interest to see how they pan out.

The Fingal Raven did not do well in his first two maiden attempts at Lingfield and Goodwood. Both attempts at 6f against sprinters may not have been ideal but then powered home with the extra furlong at Kempton. It would appear that he has a major opportunity to shine as the distances continue to grow.

THE FINGAL RAVEN

DP = 2-0-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 9.67

Mare Profile = 5-6-4-11-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.80   Triads = 15-21-20

On the surface, these are very nice and ample configurations. Chefs impart 3x the amount of speed over stamina and then the mares offers a substantial amount of pure stamina. Triads configured perfectly with ample endurance which he attested to on the polytrack.

But his configurations take a wild turn and based on the additions, it may turn out to be that polytrack is truly not the place for this guy.

He was able to utilize his strong mare configurations for that surface at the short 7f distance, however, when you look deeper, a fast dirt track going two turns is more in tune to his make-up.

His Chef Line takes a complete 180 when his prominent non-chefs are defined. He jumps all the way up to a 9.67 index. That is excessive speed backed up with excessive mare stamina. Those are dirt numbers on a fast bias which align with both the UAE Derby and the Kentucky Derby - if, and only if, he is able to secure a foundation.

Seeing how Jamie Osbourne dealt with Toast of New York, we may actually have the opportunity to see it again with The Fingal Raven. This guy must be monitored.

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EAST AVENUE

Not every two year old colt needs only to be pointed out for Kentucky Derby purposes. Sometimes a real gem comes along in different divisions - this time - the Sprint or Miler Division.

This speedy young guy is out of Dance Music who is half sister to Cody's Wish. He made a splash at Ellis Park traveling 6f in his debut and many are looking to him as an early Derby favorite, however, his chart would disagree with the 10f.

EAST AVENUE

DP = 5-9-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 13-3-2-5-6   Speed = 16   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.63   Triads = 18-10-13

He has every opportunity to follow in Cody's footsteps with a possible slant towards success in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile by the skin of his teeth, but the horse would never make it to the Churchill wire on the first Saturday in May.

He is an exceptional prospect to include in your virtual stable, but keep his distance limitations in perspective. That mare line will never hold up in the Kentucky Derby. He is a major sprinter/miler type in the making.

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THE HOPEFUL STAKES TOP TWO

The odds on favorite, Ferocious was beaten by 1/2 length in the 2024 Hopeful Stakes traveling only 7f. This was a major defeat for many new fans who were enamored by his powerhouse debut.

There are a few things that stand out with this defeat, however, it does not deter his standing for the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.

The winner, Chancer McPatrick, put in a spectacular effort after slamming the gate, bumping hard with a foe, and his jockey Flavien Prat losing his iron. He had three hard obstacles to overcome while traveling against the grain of the track bias and up against such an advantaged and well respected competitor in Ferocious. He was exceptional.

The 22.76 and 45.70 helped Chancer a great deal and he could easily capitalize again in the Juvenile with the same.

Chancer McPatrick is now two for two, traveling from the rear with an incredible late kick that could easily help in the Juvenile should things fall apart up front. His run was quite impressive against all of the turmoil he faced at the start of the race.

Both horses have different advantages for the Juvenile but the disheartening part is that neither are prepared physically for advantage in the Kentucky Derby. Regardless of how the race results end up in November at DelMar, neither one of those colts should steal a dollar from you for Pool One in the Kentucky Derby Futures no matter how tempting it may seem!

FEROCIOUS

DP = 7-5-12-0-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 3.33

Mare Profile = 7-4-4-5-9   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.81   Triads = 15-13-18

Ferocious is slightly shy of the 10f. He would be aided by an inside post, a running spot close to the rail and a very moderate pace. He is extremely equipped for the Derby Prep Road and is balanced very similarly to Forte. He has much more distance than Chancer McPatrick and he will relish a DelMar bias traveling the Juvenile distance.

The possibility to be a player in the Derby is not out of the realm, however, his board hit chances would boil down to getting lucky with those three points above. The Derby is rarely run at a moderate pace, he would need extreme luck in his post position draw and he would need to secure that top tier as close to the rail as possible.

CHANCER McPATRICK

DP = 1-2-4-1-0 (8) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.38 ANZ = 2.20

Mare Profile = 7-4-4-6-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-14-16

With Chancer, his stamina is coming from his chefs and his speed is coming from his mares. This is very similar to his sire McKinzie, however, this guy favors his chefs as far as running style. His balance gives him a solid 9f and with the additions, he can raise to a hairs length passed the 10f mark if he can grab ahold.

His mare triads are not pretty for the Derby and both he and Ferocious are basically two colts who prefer to run with two different styles at basically the same exact scale. The balance is flipped in inheritance with one on the stamina side and one on the speed side from the sire inheritances but the mares offset the directions in a slightly adverse way. Both have everything they need for the Juvenile. Both can obviously take advantage of a fast track, and will capitalize based on pace.

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HENRI MATISSE

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Son of Wootten Bassett. Trained by Aiden O'Brien. Ridden by Ryan Moore.

IDES OF MARCH

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Son of Wootten Bassett. Trained by Aiden O'Brien. Ridden by Ryan Moore.

That is all that needs to be said about those two.

Ides of March - 8/31/2024 - Curragh - Racing Post Rating: 110