This article was already posted back on March 14, 2020. The UAE Derby was cancelled due to the Covid pandemic so we missed a great show that year and this post fell to the wayside. This year, the pageantry and spectacle of this race will showcase, yet again, some of the best bred individuals from all parts of the world. I do believe it is a good idea to bring it back to the forefront, dust it off a bit and repost. Even if you do not find yourself placing a bet in this race, it is still important to understand the race as it pertains to the winner and how he fits in at Churchill.
The UAE Derby is the most celebrated Overseas Derby Prep of the Season. This race is a spectacle of brilliance and some of the best bred three year olds find themselves competing in this race. Guys like Thunder Snow, Mendelssohn, Mubtaahij, and Toast of New York dazzled in this race but they all hold one thing in common - total defeat in the Kentucky Derby. With royal charts and impeccable breeding, the ability to shine in Dubai is relinquished on this side of the world. It is not the plane ride, it is the breeding. What wins on the surface of that Meydan track does not correspond to what wins at Churchill Downs.
Derby preps on our land are consistently won by those who show their overabundance of inbred speed early on. Since the Kentucky Derby hands the advantage to speed guys year after year (especially on a muddy track) the main focus is whether or not that speed guy has the mare stamina to sustain the further distance. As the prep season progresses, our stamina guys begin to show off because they are beating the speedy pretenders who are now unable to sustain their sprinters pedigree going that 1/16th or 1/8 further. Additionally, our stamina guys who continue to showoff their speed on our slick tracks will always dominate with advantages in the Derby.
Those who shine in the UAE Derby hold that stamina which is a major component to having success on that track. They surrender that stamina advantage in the Derby because they cannot compete with the inbred speed side which is imperative for success in the Kentucky Derby.
Most years, these exquisite winning pedigrees from overseas put our guys numbers to shame among Derby contenders but it is the bias of the track that defeats them in the end. Consider the idea of our barns traveling to Dubai because they are holding the Kentucky Derby there for the year. Who do you think would hit the board and who do you think would fall to the bottom? Mendelssohn, Thunder Snow, Toast of New York would have demolished our speed demons there, no matter how much mare stamina they were packing. The track gives the advantage. The plane ride, the quarantine and quality of water is secondary.
Back in 2018, one of the greatest overseas prep races was won by Mendelssohn in the UAE Derby. Most scoffed at the win, proclaiming the lead rail as a flyer that allowed that horse to dominate by 18.5 lengths. It was a stunning record win and visually one of the most impressive prep wins from both here and abroad in years. But that prep race showed a major component of a major competitor for the Derby - a stamina guy who grabbed the lead over the speed demons - a stamina guy who displayed wicked speed - a stamina guy who traveled well - and a stamina guy who won on every surface. This horse had bad luck in that his edition turned sloppy. Had that day been clear and sunny, Justify would have had another competitor down that stretch. His breeding and his past performances far exceeded that field that year.
In 2017, another over-achiever with sensational breeding, Thunder Snow, dominated his UAE Derby and when compared to the sub-par breeding of the Kentucky Derby field that year, this guy stood out as a major superstar in the making. Not one colt compared to this guy. It was actually comical how badly Thunder Snow's chart and numbers massacred the breeding of that entire Derby field. With superior stamina inheritance, his incredible breeding unfortunately knocked any advantage on its side. This horse could have run the distance of that track backwards and blindfolded, but not at Churchill for that particular race and not on that sloppy track against our speed demons. If you look back at all twenty of the contenders of the 2017 Kentucky Derby, only Thunder Snow went on to become a major success and racked up over 16 million dollars in earnings.
If the Derby were run in Dubai, that field would still be running that track and Thunder Snow would have left them in the dust. When it comes to these gifted overseas 3 years olds, what wins on the UAE Derby surface does not correlate to what wins on the Churchill Track. In that same vein, what wins our Derby preps is not the same as what wins in the UAE prep. The fact that these overseas titans dominate in the breeding department, they are conditioned on certain surfaces that are not aligned with ours. Even though they display their brilliant speed early on, with a strong will to win, they do not possess the overabundance of inbred speed that is a necessity for the Kentucky Derby itself.
In reality, their lack of inbred speed is what gives them the advantage in the UAE Derby in the first place. A crazy statement for a Graded stakes race, but true none the less.
The history of this race over the last 15 years (and beyond) shows that the advantage of this spectacular race is overwhelmingly against speed. Quite the opposite of our preps and one that must be consulted if you intend to place a wager on one of the most exciting and magnificent races of the season. These guys are serious runners, with such a dominance of breeding over our guys that unfortunately will never be revealed on the Churchill Downs surface.
Who wins the UAE Derby? More importantly, who does not win the UAE Derby?
Speed guys suffer in the UAE Derby. Not for lack of trying, as there are many entrants each year who give it their all. The bias of that track is against them and unfortunately for them, they are never the same upon their return. They were asked to give up their advantage in an American Prep, fly over 7700 miles to Dubai to compete against regally bred over advantaged stars. After having their confidence shot to hell, they then have to travel another 7700 miles home and their connections wonder why their charges can't even post a win in a future allowance race afterwards. Even if one of our guys with the correct breeding wins this race, their fate back in the states mimics their speedy foes. It's usually downhill. Not only for the three years olds, but even the seasoned.
Looking at the last 17 years of the order of finish in the UAE Derby, those who win the prep and then proceeded to occupy a gate in the Kentucky Derby afterwards averaged 8th on the tote board. A disheartening statistic based on the fact that most of these guys held breeding that far surpassed their foes here in America.
The History of the Past 17 Years of the UAE Derby.
Colts with a chef index OVER 2.70 suffer in the UAE Derby. Quite the opposite of our preps and the Derby itself. As with most all Graded Stakes races both here and abroad, there is always at least one exception to the rule. Over the past 17+ years, only ONE colt hit that Win spot in the UAE with an index over 2.70 - Daddy Long Legs (3.00) in 2012. All others were under 2.70 with most well below that. This translates to 5% of the time a horse with a 2.70 or over chef index has won the UAE Derby.
95% of the time, a chef index under 2.70 takes the trophy. With most well below that.
In addition, the mares side is equally telling. Speed total points from the mares do not exceed 14, with most well below that. Additionally, the triads are generally lacking in the first slot with dominance in the 3rd high stamina slot.
Example 1;
Last year, Rebel's Romance won the race.
The son of Dubawi had a 1.10 chef index.
(Check #1 - index below 2.70)
His mares Speed/Stamina Balance:
Speed = 9 Stamina = 17
(Check #2 - speed points under 14)
His mares Triads: 11-13-19
(Check #3 - First slot of the triads (inbred speed) much lower than the third slot (inbred high stamina) leans to the right.)
Every tell-tale advantaged sign was present.
Example 2;
On March 30, 2019, Plus Que Parfait won the race.
He had a 2.47 chef index:
(Check #1 - chef index below 2.70)
His mares speed/stamina balance:
Speed = 6 Stamina = 15
(Check #2 - Speed points under 14)
His mare triads: 12-16-21
(Check #3 - First slot of the triads (inbred speed) much lower than the third slot (inbred high stamina) leans to the right.
Again, every tell-tale advantaged sign is present.
These configurations stands out for the UAE Derby, however, this set-up holds the highest disadvantage in the Derby year after year. Plus Que Parfait could run 10f, but his inbred speed is no match for the speed demons with the correct mare stamina at Churchill. Has nothing to do with the plane ride and everything to do with the bias of the two tracks being at odds with each other. What wins at one facility does not always translate to another. This is true with all tracks regardless of continent.
Stamina wins the UAE Derby, whether that stamina is coming from the chefs or the mares. In Plus Que Parfait's instance, his high stamina came mostly from his mares, most winners it came from their chefs, and in some cases from both. The point here is that high speed inheritance usually always has the strong advantage in most all graded stakes races but NOT in the UAE Derby. Only one had the ability to counteract that rule, Daddy Long Legs in 2012.
The UAE Derby is a race where the best wager is a single hefty Win bet as opposed to fumbling around with a superfecta bet. Yes, there are many easy tosses among the nominations this year, but that means ONLY tosses for the win. Most of the superfectas for the last 15 years held a few who hit that board who did not hit the criteria. An advantage does not mean they sweep all four top spots - it means the winner overtakes speed 95% of the time. Go for the win as opposed to going for the gold in a super. Chop the field down from that 2.70 cut-off and then consult your PP's with what remains. When Derby time comes, best to leave your heart out of it and bet the bias. One too many times has that breeding stood out like a sore thumb, but that breeding hates the Derby!
The point here is that there is a wildly large difference with inheritance in stamina in the 2.70 range down to the 1.00 range. It is easy to distinguish and pinpoint that high endurance capability with colts below 2.00. With those in the 2.10 to 2.70 range, of course you can see that they are far from speed leaning from their chefs and are gaining additional stamina from the mares. Whatever the case, the fact that a 2.10 to 2.70 guy beat out the speed guy tells you that the horse is favoring his stamina end which eventually lends to his detriment in the Derby. Whoever wins the UAE Derby is favoring the stamina side of his inheritance. The Derby demands that a colt pull from a BALANCE of both speed and stamina. The higher the better.
Below are the last 16 winners of the UAE Derby. The numbers and the history never lie.
2021 Rebel's Romance
Chef Index: 1.10
Mare Speed = 9
Triads: 11-13-19
Stamina top to bottom along with a listed chef as his immediate sire, Dubawi. This sire contributes to two categories, both the Intermediate (7,8,9f speed) and also to the Solid (13,14,15f major stamina). Mares contribution heavily dominant in the Solid and Professional categories (13f to 16f+).
2020 - Did Not Run.
2019 Plus Que Parfait
Chef Index: 2.47
Mare Speed = 6
Triads: 12-16-21
Finished 8th in the Derby.
The high amount of stamina came directly from the mares. 9 point spread between the speed/stamina balance and the triads lean all the way over to the stamina end. This guy had 10f in his back pocket but at Churchill Downs with these numbers, especially on a sloppy track, are no match for our speed guys.
2018 Mendelssohn
Chef Index: 1.80
Mare Speed = 13
Triads: 17-18-17
Finished 20th in the Derby.
The stamina came directly from his chefs. He had a perfectly even balance of speed and stamina from his mares. He did not lean one way or the other there, it was equally balanced. Excess speed (17 points in the first slot) probably was the reason for that magnificent track record finish. Mendelssohn being the only exception to the criteria as far as triads not leaning to the right. Configured even.
2017 Thunder Snow
Chef Index: .89
Mare Speed = 12
Triads: 15-24-19
Did Not Finish in the Derby. Bucked at the Mud.
Magnificent set-up and complete stand out with less than 1x the amount of inherited speed over stamina from his chefs. Equally impressive stamina inheritance from his mares.
2016 Lani
Chef Index: 2.50
Mare Speed = 14
Triads: 15-12-16
Finished 9th in the Derby
Stamina from Chefs, and even though the triads are lacking, they still lean right dominance. Horrible numbers for the Derby.
Outdid himself in the UAE Derby, as there were a few others competing who far outweighed these numbers. Still, he beat the speed guys and his index under 2.70.
2015 Mubtaahij
Chef Index: 1.00
Mare Speed = 12
Triads: 16-20-18
Finished 8th in the Derby.
Major chef inbred stamina with mares dominate in Classic distance.
2014 Toast of New York
Chef Index: 1.21
Mare Speed = 14
Triads: 18-26-19
Did not Run in The Derby
Major Stamina Top and Bottom
2013 Lines of Battle
Chef Index: 1.95
Mare Speed = 12
Triads: 13-25-19
Finished 7th in the Derby
Major Stamina Top and Bottom
2012 Daddy Long Legs
Chef Index: 3.00
Mare Speed = 14
Triads = 16-11-17
Did Not Finish in the Derby.
The Exception with that 3.00 Chef Index and Subpar Mare Triads. Of course he didnt finish. No clue how he pulled off the win in this race.
2011 Khawlah
Chef Index: 1.40
Mare Speed = 11
Triads = 13-18-18
Did not Compete in the Derby.
Intense Stamina top and Bottom. Inbred speed very low.
2010 Musir
Chef Index: 1.40
Mare Speed = 14
Triads = 16-28-18
Did not compete in the Derby.
Major Stamina top and Bottom. The 28 points in the 10f to 12f range is overloaded and spectacular.
The following years were run at a shorter distance, (1800 meters as opposed to 1900) which do not correlate to today, however, the criteria and outcomes still remains the same. This reconfirms that the Meydan track caters to stamina and favors that stamina from either side with a chef index below 2.70. Note how the chef index does rise a bit from the lower under 2.00 spot here, mainly due to the shorter distance.
2009 Regal Ransom
Chef Index: 2.00
Mare Speed = 11
Triads = 14-19-21
Came in 8th in the Derby.
Stamina guy top and Bottom, this year was even run at a shorted distance and still the bias caters to high stamina that overtakes the necessary needed speed for the Derby.
2008 Honour Devil
Chef Index = 2.50
Mare Speed = 7
Triads: 10-15-17
Did not run in the Derby.
Serious mare stamina inheritance and lack of high speed from both the top and bottom.
2007 Asiatic Boy
Chef Index: 2.56
Speed = 12
Triads = 14-15-16
Did not run in the Derby.
Favored stamina inheritance, he had a CD of .50, lack of speed inheritance, lucky this edition was run shorter. Still, hits criteria and beats the speed on the field.
2006 Discreet Cat
Chef Index: 2.67
Speed: 12
Triads: 15-14-18
Stamina leaning to Mares. Same luck in running 1800 meters instead of 1900. Still hits criteria though.
2005 Blues and Royals
Chef Index: 1.00
Mare Speed = 12
Triads = 13-13-14
Did not Run in the Derby
All stamina from the Chefs.
The point here is that the winner of the UAE Derby will most likely have an index below 2.70. He will have mare speed points total under 14. He will have a greater chance of leaning to stamina in his triads. He will favor the stamina from one side or the other or both. He will not be a speed demon. He will not lean to speed on either top or bottom. He will find no advantage in the Kentucky Derby because of this lack of speed inheritance. Best to stay away from a super bet and concentrate on a Win ticket in this particular race. The superfecta does not comprise of only the advantaged. The superfecta bet in this race is a fools bet and it provides us with no advantage at all. The only advantage we have as gamblers is to consult the numbers and toss from consideration for that top spot any horse who leans to speed as opposed to stamina. If a speed horse wins this race, he might be considered the second coming of Secretariat! Taking the time to consult Pedigreequery to gather your numbers is definitely advised.
Also of major note, the players in the UAE Derby take back that advantage if they are entered into the Belmont Stakes. Obvious statement for obvious reasons. They love the distance!
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