The best way to spot young early talent is to approach it from the opposite direction.
Be it the colt's debut race, his first timed workout, or even a two year old in training at a Breeder's Sale, clues to his underlining future potential can become clear as day. One needs only to look at it from the opposite direction.
The Blind Approach
Speed always attracts the early buzz. Speed wins races. In horse racing, everything revolves around speed.
Speed will persist at all different distances for every individual horse. When you see a very young horse move on the track or read about his magnificent final time at a short distance, you cannot assume that his speed will necessarily endure never-ending tracks. It will not tell you what type of biases he can withstand either.
It will not tell you anything other than he is a fast horse going short.
How a horse should run based on how he is bred vs. what he is actually displaying is the key to latching on to a potential superstar and betting on him every step of the way.
In order to break it down, first watch this 30 second video of a young two year old from this week's OBS Under Tack Show:
This young boy recorded the co-fastest Quarter Mile in 20.2 just this week. Impressive speed and extremely eye-catching.
Visuals alone have this little guy as an easy one to spot and anticipate for his debut race. Even with the normal blind approach, one can easily see that this horse has something special. He's freaking fast but will that translate to a longer distance?
The blind approach will never tell you whether or not this beautiful speed demon would be one to anticipate for the 8f Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile or for the 10f Kentucky Derby. The blind approach will never tell you when to stop betting on him or if you should back him all the way to Churchill Downs.
In reality, every new two year old has a 50% chance of eventually becoming a sprinter/miler and a 50% chance of becoming a Classic runner. Using the "eye test" with a very fast final time will have its limits and could either spell embarrassment for those who assume or it could cost you dearly at the windows. This is the approach that the majority usually takes.
Do you jump on the bandwagon based on visuals or do you use the opposite approach? The tools are so very easy to find.
THE OPPOSITE APPROACH
Let's assume that the configurations assigned to this guy are as follows:
Set One:
Chefs: DP = 3-0-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 ANZ = 7.00
Mares (reines): DP = 7-7-2-7-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.10 Triads = 16-16-15
First we look at the 3.00 chef index. That number depicts 3 times the amount of inherited speed over stamina. He sits on the speed side of the spectrum, however, it is on the lower end. Since there are only 6 points total in his profile, other outside sires will impart influence. These specific sires are known as the prominent non-chefs (as listed by Dr. Roman).
Without the need to guess, the ANZ figure will add in these outside influential sires for you. This chart turns that 3.00 index up on over-drive, all the way to a 7.00 index. That is 7 times the amount of inherited speed over stamina.
The Chefs CD is high at 1.00, but with the added influences, it jumps even higher. Up to 1.17. His center of Distribution tips that scale to the speed extreme. The mares side also tips even more speed. Remember, mares numbers are read differently. Mare's indexes over approximately 0.90 tips the scale in favor of inherited speed. That 1.10 index is SPEED.
Mares triads are completely under-par as well. His depiction of displayed speed align perfectly with his configurations.
Combined optimum distance falls at 8.8f.
This alone would explain why this young horse ran that 1/4 in 20.2.
There is barely any stamina influence to water that speed down and balance the scale out. These configurations coupled with that performance would easily produce flashy workout times and enhancement on a fast bias like Santa Anita.
That fast time going so short tells you that with this inheritance and his performance at the show, it would produce a lead runner who's influence is dictating early, quick, short energy that would most likely dissipate by the 8 to 8.5f mark.
These configurations would easily explain the souped up jets that he displayed traveling that 1/4 mile. His performance on that track would make perfect sense and it would tell you everything you would need to know going forward. A player for the Breeders Cup Mile/Sprint and a complete toss for the Kentucky Derby should he secure enough points on the Derby Road.
These configurations would tell you to bet him heavily in his 6f debut and to continue all the way up to the 8.5f mark. They would also tell you that he has no chance in the Kentucky Derby. All of this information from one simple early performance at a Tack Show for a 2 year old in training.
BUT WHAT IF IT WAS OPPOSITE?
Set Two:
Chefs: DP = 1-2-11-0-0 (14) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.29 ANZ = 2.38
Mares (reines) = 9-3-5-9-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 17-17-20
These chef configurations depict stamina, not speed. He sits in the stamina category with a 1.55 index. A very low CD at .29 as opposed to the high 1.00 above. The mare's profile shows a 9 in the Brilliant slot, which is nice hefty speed influence at approximately the 4 to 6f mark. This is counteracted and balanced with a 3 point lean to stamina. Added with the chefs, the outside influences, the balance between the mares higher 1.00 and the chefs lower .29 and the hefty triads - that all spells Kentucky Derby Numbers.
Note the dominant 11 in the Classic category of his chefs profile. The low 1 and 2 points to the left of it (brilliant and intermediate slots) are so low that it would barely affect the balance, keeping that Classic inheritance intact.
These configurations would depict a horse who would relish 10f because he has inherited the ingredients from his ancestors to travel that distance. That influence does not go away no matter how slow or how fast he displays his energy.
It would be "normal" for a horse built in this manner to reserve energy, to not be so quick going this short, and to balance his speed to endure his optimum.
Now, take those configurations and add in the performance of this guy at the Tack Show.
What his configurations are saying is OPPOSITE of what he is doing. He is ignoring all of that inherited stamina, running completely opposite of how he "should" be approaching a 2 furlong distance. In essence, he is running like a sprinter, quick to the front, fast as lightening, but still holding the inherited endurance to go the Classic distance.
That is the type of set-up and performance that pointed Epicenter and Shared Belief out as complete standouts so early on. When they run OPPOSITE of what their numbers depict, you have just found a monster. One who exhibits killer speed but with the inbred ingredients to endure his energy at the Classic distance.
This type of insight is not achievable blindly, nor should be assumed just because the horse was fast at 1/4 mile. You have to know how he is built to grasp his ultimate capability and potential.
THE REVEAL:
This new, young, fast, magnificent colt, the offspring of Justify and Pauseforthecause holds the configurations of SET TWO.
Chefs: DP = 1-2-11-0-0 (14) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.29 ANZ = 2.38
Mare Profile = 9-3-5-9-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 17-17-20
You are clear to jump on the bandwagon - and you now know the reason why. This is not blind assumption, but backed up with real data. That is what he inherited. It would appear also, track bias and track surface will make no difference.
The added bonus - This 2f freight train in 20.2 was actually performed on All Weather Surface. BANG!
This colt has the makings to become a beast if he continues to exhibit that type of speed in his works and early debut. We'll soon have a name and we'll jump on his maiden and a futures bet for that matter. He'll fire out of that gate on the lead with a vengeance and he won't stop.
(The first set of configurations... well, they actually belong to Trinniberg, the 2012 Breeder's Cup Sprint Champion.)
Comments